Duke vs UConn Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits for Elite Eight

• I evaluate the Duke vs UConn odds and data to locate betting value
• My analysis identifies a statistical edge on the game total
• See my Duke vs UConn best bets and predictions for Sunday in DC

Go to: PICKS || ODDS || SPLITS

How to Watch Duke vs UConn

The East Region culminates with an all-chalk battle between the #1 Duke Blue Devils (35-2 SU, 20-17 ATS, 13-24 O/U) and #2 UConn Huskies (32-5 SU, 15-22 ATS, 18-19 O/U) on Sunday, March 29, at 5:05 pm ET. CBS and Paramount+ broadcast the game from Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.

Duke enters as the betting favorite. UConn enters as the underdog. Duke maintains a 14-game win streak. UConn holds a three-game win streak. Both teams possess players with tournament experience. I analyze the betting lines and team statistics to formulate my wagers.

Duke vs UConn Picks

My top pick for the final Elite Eight matchup of 2026 targets the game total, which opened at 134.5 and has held firm at that number.

Under 134.5 (+100 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Duke vs UConn O/U Pick

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Under 134.5

50%

Predict

Duke has been a phenomenal under bet all season (64.8% under rate). The Blue Devils flew over the total against St John’s in the Sweet 16 (155 points against a total of 140.5) but that was against a Johnnies team that loves to run. UConn is anything but fast; the Huskies rank 320th out of 365 DI teams in tempo. Duke (286th in tempo) is generally happy to play at a plodding, half-court pace.

UConn is 18-19 O/U on the season but has skewed heavily to the under lately. Each of the Huskies’ last two stayed comfortably under the total (by 5.5 and 6.5 points) and they are 1-4 O/U in their last five. UConn has held eight of its last ten opponents under 70.

Both of these teams rate better on defense than offense at KenPom: Duke is fifth on offense and third on defense. UConn is 30th on offense and ninth on D.

ATS Pick: UConn +5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Against the spread, I lean to the Huskies but I don’t like this pick as much as the under.

Dan Hurley’s team is packed with experienced upperclassmen, including Alex Karaban, who was a significant contributor on UConn’s 2023 and 2024 national championship-winning teams.

Duke got a boost from the return of Caleb Foster in Friday’s win over St John’s. The 6’5 junior guard had 11 points, three boards, and two dimes in 19 minutes. But he’s listed as questionable for Sunday. He returned way ahead of schedule and it’s unclear if his still-less-than-100% foot will be able to handle two games in three days.

The Blue Devils were almost stunned by #16 Siena in the first round with Foster in street clothes (coming back from a double-digit second-half deficit). They needed to overcome another double-digit second half deficit against St John’s last time out and, on the whole, have looked vulnerable throughout the tournament. They were #1 at KenPom on Selection Sunday and now sit third, behind both Arizona and Michigan.

Duke vs UConn Odds (Best ATS, ML, O/U)

At traditional online sportsbooks, the best ATS price on Duke is -235 (FanDuel) and on UConn is +205 (Caesars). Duke bettors can find a considerably better price at prediction market Kalshi, where a Blue Devil victory is trading at 68¢, the equivalent of a -212 moneyline.

ATS bettors can also find the best Duke line at Kalshi: -5.5 (+113), unless they want to lay significant juice (-120) to get an extra point at FanDuel (-4.5).

UConn +5.5 is -113 at Kalshi and -115 at BetMGM.

The game total ranges from 134.0 (Ov -110) at Caesars to 134.5 (Un +100) at Kalshi.

Odds commentary as of 12:31 pm ET, March 29. Claim SBD’s Kalshi bonus code ahead of Sunday’s Elite Eight games.

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Duke is currently the third favorite in the March Madness championship odds at +350. UConn is as long as +1500. Only Tennessee (+4000) has longer odds among the six remaining teams.

Duke vs UConn Betting Splits

Sunday’s college basketball public betting data show some heavily-skewed ticket and money counts. Duke commands 80.55% of moneyline wagers and 64.03% of the handle.

For the point spread, UConn is getting the lion’s share: 62.19% of the tickets and 72.58% of the money, leaving Duke with just 37.81% of tickets and 27.42% of the handle.

For the game total, the over is getting a staggering 91.04% of bets and 89.6% of money.

On the surface, there are no sharp-vs-public divides on Duke/UConn.

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