Early Picks & Predictions for #11 Texas vs #2 Purdue

• Purdue is laying 6.5 points to Texas in the West Region’s 2 vs 11 Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday
• The Boilermakers are 9-0 ATS since 2024 as favorites in the NCAA Tournament
• Below, you’ll see my favorite picks and predictions for Texas vs Purdue, plus the odds and betting splits

All of the remaining NCAA Tournament teams are from major conferences, leaving No. 11 Texas out of the West Region to take on the role of Cinderella. The Longhorns look to continue their improbable March Madness run on Thursday, when they face No. 2 Purdue.

Online sportsbooks don’t like Texas’ chances, pegging the Boilermakers are sizeable favorites in the college basketball odds. I’m in total agreement with that sentiment, and will be betting Purdue against the spread in this matchup with plenty of confidence.

Tip-off for this highly anticipated Sweet 16 showdown is set for 7:10 pm ET on March 26, at the SAP Center in San Jose, with national television coverage provided by CBS.

Texas vs Purdue Picks and Predictions

• Purdue -6.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Purdue enters this neutral-site clash riding a red-hot six-game winning streak. March Madness Most-Outstanding Player odds contender Braden Smith continues to dictate the offensive tempo, leading a unit that ranks first in the country in offensive rating over the last two weeks.

Meanwhile, Texas is peaking at the perfect time. They are leaning heavily on the sharpshooting of Purdue transfer Cam Heide, who is looking for revenge against his former program.

The Longhorns may be the only Cinderella worthy story left, but the glass slipper is about to shatter. Texas finished 10th in the SEC with a mediocre 9-9 conference record. Their defense surrenders a generous 76.1 points per game. That is a glaring vulnerability against an elite offense that averages 82.2 points per contest.

Purdue boasts a massive +12.1 average point differential. Their ability to generate consistent stops in the half-court gives them a definitive advantage. When you look at specific situational trends, Purdue is an impressive 17-3 (85.0%) straight up when playing away from their home arena this season.

Texas relies heavily on perimeter shooting, but Purdue will force tough, contested jumpers. Texas is just 4-6 (40.0%) in true road environments, showing they struggle when removed from their comfort zone. While this is a neutral site, the physical toll of playing three games in five days during the tournament’s opening weekend will catch up to the Longhorns.

Expect Smith to dissect the perimeter defense early and often. Purdue will use their half-court efficiency to steadily build a double-digit lead that Texas simply cannot erase. Lay the points and trust the superior team to cover the number.

When asking how these two programs stack up against each other, the raw numbers paint a clear picture. We have an elite defensive powerhouse squaring off against a vulnerable SEC underdog. Both teams possess the firepower to score in bunches, but the defensive metrics tell the real story.

Texas vs Purdue Stats

The most glaring statistical takeaway is the defensive discrepancy. Purdue sits at No. 8 in the AP Poll because they surrender just 70.1 points per game. Texas gives up 76.1 points per contest, making them highly susceptible to Purdue in half-court sets.

Offensively, Texas technically edges out Purdue in points per game. However, that production came against drastically different levels of competition. Purdue owning a +12.1 point differential after navigating a brutal Big Ten schedule is exactly why I am backing them to cover the 6.5-point spread.

Texas vs Purdue Odds

Shifting over to the Texas vs Purdue odds, where DraftKings is the online sportsbooks to bet with if you’re targeting the Boilermakers. DK is currently hanging a -6.5 point spread at -112 odds, while the rest of the market is either at -7 or -7.5.

Purdue is 9-0 against the spread as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament since 2024, and another win and cover on Thursday will likely set up a date with March Madness championship odds favorite Arizona in the Elite Eight.

Odds as of March 23, 2026. New Customers can claim the DraftKings Promo Code to bet on the Sweet 16.

Texas vs Purdue Betting Splits

As for the action in the college basketball public betting splits, the betting market is strongly backing the underdog. Texas holds 69% of the spread tickets and 69% of the money. Bettors are united in taking the points, creating a massive public consensus on Texas.

On the moneyline, 83% of the money is confidently backing Purdue to win outright. The public expects Purdue to advance in the printable March Madness bracket, but mistakenly believes Texas will keep it within three possessions. My analysis says otherwise, and I’m happy to hold firm and go against public consensus.