Expert Elite Eight Predictions & Picks for Saturday (Mar. 29)

• Check our Elite 8 expert picks and predictions for Saturday, March 29th
• Points should flow freely when Bama’s offense meets Duke
• Read below for my top Saturday March Madness predictions, including a player prop bet

The Elite Eight tips off Saturday with two high-stakes matchups that will determine half our Final Four lineup. Top-seeded Florida brings a nine-game win streak against a resilient Texas Tech squad, while Alabama’s record-setting offense meets Duke’s dominant two-way attack in the nightcap.

After digging into the numbers, trends and matchups, I’ve identified four college basketball picks with value for Saturday’s Elite Eight action on March 29.

Elite Eight Odds (March 29)

Elite Eight odds as of 2pm ET on March 29 at top-rated March Madness betting sites.

Texas Tech vs Florida Prediction

I’m grabbing the points with Texas Tech against Florida in San Francisco. The Gators (33-4) are rolling with nine straight wins, but this spread feels a touch inflated with 75% of betting tickets and 77% of money coming in on Florida. The Red Raiders (28-8) showed serious toughness erasing a 16-point deficit against Arkansas, and they have the personnel to keep this competitive.

The offensive numbers favor Florida (85.5 PPG, 2nd in efficiency) over Texas Tech (79 PPG in last ten games), but tournament basketball often tightens up in the Elite Eight.

Big man JT Toppin brings a consistent double-double threat that can neutralize Florida’s frontcourt advantage. The Red Raiders’ more methodical approach should also slow down the Gators, who’ve been lighting up scoreboards with 91 PPG over their last ten contests.

The injury report matters here. Texas Tech has been without shooter Chance McMillian since mid-March, while Florida’s Alex Condon is dealing with an ankle issue. With the spread hovering around 6.5-7.5 points, the value is on the more battle-tested Red Raiders.

Florida might win straight up, but history favors underdogs in the Elite Eight. Since 2016, betting underdogs have covered at a 59% clip in this round, going 29-19-1 ATS in Elite Eight games.

• The Pick: Texas Tech +6.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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JT Toppin Rebounding Prop Prediction

I’m backing JT Toppin Over 10.5 Rebounds in the Chase Center showdown with Florida. The sophomore forward has been reliable on the glass all season, averaging 9.3 boards, and has stepped up when Texas Tech needs him most in tournament play.

Toppin grabbed 12 rebounds against Drake in the second round and followed with 11 more against Arkansas in their Sweet 16 comeback. The frontcourt battle will be decisive against Florida, and with Alex Condon potentially limited by his ankle injury, Toppin should find extra rebounding opportunities.

Florida’s rotation of bigs (Condon, Chinyelu, Haugh and Handlogten) has been effective, but they’re prone to foul trouble. Texas Tech’s path to a potential upset runs through Toppin controlling the paint and limiting Florida’s second-chance points. Expect a double-digit rebounding effort from the Red Raiders’ star, making this prop one of the best values on the board.

• The Pick: JT Toppin Over 10.5 Rebounds (-118 at BetMGM)

Alabama vs Duke Prediction

I’m laying the points with Duke (34-3) against Alabama (28-8) in Newark. The Blue Devils boast the nation’s most dominant freshman in Cooper Flagg, who delivered against Arizona with 30 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 blocks. Duke’s experience in close games showed as they withstood every Wildcats run in their 100-93 win.

Alabama’s Mark Sears put on a show against BYU with 10 three-pointers in their 113-88 rout, but Duke’s defense ranks 9th in efficiency nationally. The defensive disparity here is massive – Duke surrenders just 62.5 PPG while Alabama’s defense has struggled all season, ranking 356th out of 364 teams allowing 81.2 PPG. That gap becomes decisive in Elite Eight pressure.

Duke’s 8-1 all-time against the Tide, and they’re finding their peak form at the perfect moment. Their roster has multiple future pros surrounding Flagg. Alabama’s historic shooting performance against BYU won’t translate against a Duke squad that’s locked down their perimeter defense in recent weeks. The Blue Devils advance in what could be a surprisingly comfortable win.

• The Pick: Duke -6.5 (-122 at Fanduel)

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Alabama-Duke Over/Under Prediction

I’m taking the Over 174.5 in what should be an offensive showcase at the Prudential Center. The big-money bettors agree, with 86% of handle coming in on the over. This number might seem high for an Elite Eight game, but these offenses have been unstoppable throughout March.

Alabama just dropped 113 on BYU with an NCAA tournament record 25 triples. The Crimson Tide have cleared 80+ points in seven straight contests. They push tempo relentlessly, creating the perfect storm against a Duke team that just put up triple digits themselves against Arizona. The Blue Devils’ offensive efficiency ranks at the top nationally, and they won’t shy away from matching Alabama’s pace.

The total opened at 166.5, and it’s been obliterated up to the current number. However, it still feels short based on team’s recent performances. Neither squad is built to suddenly embrace a grind-it-out style in the Elite Eight – their identities are too well-established at this point.

Both teams have NBA-caliber talent that can score at all three levels, setting up what could be the most entertaining game of the tournament.

• The Pick: Over 174.5 (-110 at Bet365)

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