Expert Picks, Best Bets & How to Watch NC State vs Texas

Published: March 17, 2026 at 6:30 pm EDT

NC State and Texas meet again, this time in the NCAA Tournament. — Dec 4, 2024; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Jordan Pope (0) dribbles with the ball during the second half of the game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

NC State and Texas meet in a high-stakes First Four rematch to secure a date with No. 6 BYU
Public betting has flipped the betting markets, pushing Texas to a slight favorite despite heavy sharp handle backing NC State
Our analysis breaks down NC State vs Texas and offers expert betting advice

Early-round rematches are rare in the NCAA Tournament, but that’s the case tonight when NC State takes on Texas in the First Four. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:15 pm, ET, in Dayton, Ohio. TruTV will provide national coverage.

Texas outlasted NC State 102-97 in November in the Maui Invitational.

The Wolfpack (20-13) and Longhorns (17-14) were among the last four teams to receive an at-large bid into the tournament. Tonight’s winner advances to face No. 6 BYU in Portland on Thursday.

Oddsmakers have positioned this as a virtual coin-flip, leaving bettors to dissect a razor-thin margin between two battle-tested programs. Texas enters the tournament looking to rebound from a late-season slump, heavily relying on the versatility of SEC Newcomer of the Year Dailyn Swain. Meanwhile, NC State looks to dictate pace through the playmaking of elite guard Quadir Copeland, who currently leads the ACC in assists. Handicapping this matchup requires looking beyond standard win-loss columns and isolating situational advantages on a neutral floor.

NC State vs Texas Head-to-Head & Conference Tournament Recap

Tonight’s First Four battle is a rematch of their November 26, 2025, meeting in the Maui Invitational. Texas won 102-97, hitting 16 three-pointers and shooting a blistering 50% from deep. Quadir Copeland was a one-man wrecking crew for NC State in that loss, dropping 28 points.

Entering Dayton, both squads experienced turbulent conference tournament runs. NC State went 1-1 in the ACC Tournament, losing 81-74 in the quarterfinals against Virginia. Despite rumors linking him to the LSU vacancy, head coach Will Wade firmly confirmed his commitment to NC State following the loss.

Conversely, Texas limped across the finish line, dropping five of its last six contests. Their SEC Tournament appearance was cut short in a 76-66 first-round defeat to No. 15 Ole Miss. Malik Dia provided a bright spot with 23 points, but head coach Sean Miller publicly cited a lack of focus. The rotation also suffered a blow with reserve forward Lassina Traore likely sidelined for the season with an injury.

NC State vs Texas Top Predictions & Betting Picks

The betting market has seen fascinating line movement leading up to tip-off, providing astute handicappers with a clear picture of where the sharp money is flowing. Oddsmakers initially opened NC State as a slight -115 consensus moneyline favorite, laying -1.5 points on the spread. However, consensus odds have since flipped entirely, making Texas the betting favorite.

The Pick: NC State to Win ($0.51 per contract at Kalshi)

Texas sits as a narrow, consensus 1.5-point favorite, but the moneyline is effectively a toss-up, daring bettors to simply pick the outright winner.

Prediction site Kalshi also has multiple markets available on this game, including picking the outright winner. Kalshi’s contract on NC State offers better value than consensus books.

Each NC State to win contract is $0.51 per, which equates to -104 odds. A $10 investment in those contracts would produce a $10 profit if the Wolfpack win.

The deciding factor is Texas needed to hit 16 three-pointers to beat the Wolfpack by 5 points in Maui. Expecting the Longhorns to replicate that shooting performance in a high-stakes NCAA Tournament setting isn’t realistic.

Further, excluding Maui, NC State proved far more adaptable outside of Raleigh. The Wolfpack won 9 games away from home during the regular season, including a balanced 3-3 mark in neutral-site contests. They also carry a battle-tested resume, proving they could grind out results against elite competition with 6 wins against top-50 opponents.

In an amplified postseason environment, you want to back the team that has proven it can handle neutral-site pressure. Because the spread is so small, there is no need to worry about the 1.5 points. Taking the Wolfpack to win the game outright offers the sharpest, data-backed value among Kalshi contracts.

If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)

Prediction Markets

Texas vs NC State

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

NC St.

51%

Texas

51%

Predict

The Pick: Under 158.5 (-110 at Bet365)

When looking at the total, the overarching narrative points toward a tighter, more defensive postseason battle than their November shootout. The game total opened at a lofty 159.5 but has steadily been bet down. In a do-or-die scenario, teams typically experience an initial feeling-out process characterized by nervous energy and methodical half-court execution, severely limiting transition opportunities.

Public Betting Trends and Handle Splits

Analyzing the college basketball public betting splits provides a crucial window into how both casual bettors and big-money syndicates are approaching this matchup. When evaluating these numbers, leaning on the overall handle (money percentage) gives us a much clearer indication of where sophisticated wagers are landing.

Moneyline Market: The moneyline market reveals a fascinating divergence between ticket volume and actual dollars wagered. Texas has garnered a slight majority of the betting slips with 54.14% of the tickets, but an overwhelming 83.77% of the total handle is backing NC State to win outright. While this creates a massive discrepancy, it technically falls just short of qualifying as a true “sharp versus public” indicator, which requires the majorities on both sides to reach 60% or greater. However, the sheer volume of money backing NC State is undeniable. Our recommendation of backing Texas requires comfortably fading the heavy financial liability sportsbooks are carrying on NC State.

Over/Under Total: When analyzing the game total, both the public and larger bankrolls are fully aligned in expecting a high-scoring affair. The Over has commanded a consensus, pulling in 63.01% of the betting tickets and 62.33% of the total handle. By taking the Under 158.5, we are taking a firm contrarian stance. We are banking on initial postseason jitters and tight defensive rotations to keep this game below the total, actively betting against a public hoping for an offensive shootout.

Against the Spread: Unlike the moneyline and total markets, the spread action is almost perfectly divided. Bettors are having a tough time finding a distinct edge on the narrow 1.5-point margin. Texas is pulling in just a fraction more action, seeing 50.59% of the tickets and 52.53% of the handle. With the action split virtually down the middle, capitalizing on the +107 plus-money odds for Texas to cover is the most mathematically sound approach.

How to Watch NC State vs Texas

Date: March 17, 2026
Tip-off Time: 9:15 pm, ET
Location: UD Arena — Dayton, OH
TV Channel: truTV

NC State vs Texas Tale of Tape

Statistic	NC State	Texas
Overall Record	20-13	17-14
Strength of Schedule (SOS)	0.5731	0.5443
Adjusted Win % (AWP)	0.5660	0.5036
Opponent Win % (OWP)	0.5845	0.5490
Opp. Opp. Win % (OOWP)	0.5504	0.5349
Record vs. Rank 1-25	1-5	2-5
Record vs. Rank 26-50	5-2	2-4
Neutral Site Record	3-3	1-3

Texas vs NC State Odds

Moneyline: Texas -110 / NC State -109
Spread: Texas -1.5 (+107) / NC State +1.5 (-128)
Total (Over/Under): 158.5 (Over -108 / Under -112)

Odds as of March 17, 2026, from consensus sportsbooks.

The betting markets paint the picture of a virtually dead-even clash. The incredibly narrow moneyline margin reflects a true coin-flip scenario, while Texas laying 1.5 points on the spread at plus-money highlights how heavily contested every possession is expected to be. The slight juice on the Under 158.5 indicates oddsmakers are protecting against the exact half-court defensive struggle we projected.

To find the true expectations without the sportsbook’s built-in house edge, we can calculate the vig-free normalized probabilities. Stripping away the oddsmakers’ margin reveals that Texas holds a microscopic advantage with a 50.11% implied probability of advancing. Consequently, NC State sits with a 49.89% true chance to secure the outright victory.

Because the odds are so closely matched, the potential returns on the moneyline are nearly identical. Placing a $10 wager on Texas at -110 yields a $9.09 profit, resulting in a total payout of $19.09 if they win. Conversely, a $10 bet on NC State at -109 nets slightly more, generating $9.17 in profit for a total return of $19.17.

Again, Kalshi has better moneyline contracts available if you believe in the Wolfpack to win.

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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