Expert Picks & Best Bets for #1 UConn vs #1 South Carolina (Final Four)
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- #1 UConn is a 6.5-point favorite over #1 South Carolina at the NCAAW Tournament
- The Huskies defeated the Gamecocks 82-59 in last year’s National Championship Game
- March Madness expert picks and best bets for UConn vs South Carolina’s Final Four matchup can be found below
They say history doesn’t repeat itself but tell that to UConn, South Carolina, Texas and UCLA. For the second straight year, they’re the Final Four teams remaining at the Women’s NCAA Tournament, and 2026 marks just the fifth time that all four No. 1 seeds made it through their side of the bracket.
This is also the second consecutive year that the Huskies will face the Gamecocks in a high-stakes showdown, and just like in 2025, online sportsbooks are siding with UConn. They’ve listed them as 6.5 point favorites ahead of their showdown with the South Carolina, and I think you can make the argument that the spread simply isn’t high enough.
With that in mind, I’m taking the Huskies in my expert picks and best bets for the UConn vs South Carolina Final Four matchup, so keep reading for the reasons why, plus the latest odds and how to watch.
How to Watch UConn vs South Carolina
Tip-off for this Final Four contest is scheduled for 7 pm ET on Friday from the Mortgage Matchup Center, in Phoenix AZ. ESPN will handle American broadcast duties, while TSN will air the game for Canadian households.
These two college basketball powerhouses squared off in last year’s National Championship Game, with UConn posting a convincing 82-59 victory.
UConn vs South Carolina Expert Picks and Best Bets
- UConn -6.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
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The Huskies are seeking their second consecutive National Championship, and their first repeat since 2016. Two more wins would give them an NCAA record 13 repeat triumphs, while they’re also zeroing in on their seventh perfect season.
Given they’ve won 54 games in a row, I’m not about to step in front of them. UConn has won 37 of their 38 games by 13+ points, and have posted four straight victories of 18+ points at March Madness. The scary thing is they’ve played poorly on offense in back-to-back outings, and have still outscored the opposition 133-94.
Despite the underwhelming offensive numbers by their standards in their last two contests, UConn is still considered the game’s number two offense behind only UCLA. They feature Sarah Strong, the Player of the Year, and lead the field in shooting percentage, points per game and assists.
If that wasn’t enough, Azzi Fudd is burying 45.5% of her triples, and freshman Blanca Quinonez is averaging 17.3 points per game so far in the Tournament.
As good as the offense can be, UConn’s defense is their biggest strength, and one that never goes cold. The Huskies lead the nation in defensive rating, steals, points allowed, opponent field goal percentage and points off turnovers. They’ve held 10 straight opponents below 53 points, and have surrendered 57 points in only six of 38 games this season.
In case you’re wondering how they fare against quality competition, they’re undefeated versus the nine teams they’ve faced seeded #9 or better in March Madness, with an average margin of victory of 25 points.
UConn vs South Carolina Stats
Against almost any other foe, I’d be backing the Gamecocks as underdogs. There is plenty to like about South Carolina, most notably how they can bully teams offensively with their size, but there a few reasons they are ranked last of the four programs remaining by college basketball experts.
For starters, the team is top heavy. Joyce Edwards and Ta’Niya Latson do the bulk of the heavy lifting, and there’s not much scoring off the bench. Contrast that with the Huskies, who got nearly half of their points from their reserves in the Elite Eight.
Another flaw is their lack of Final Four experience. Despite making it this far for a sixth straight season, there was a ton of turnover over last year’s runner-up squad, and few players have experience at this stage. How will they react in the highest pressure situations remains to be seen, but I prefer trusting the experience of UConn over the unknown.
Finally, the Gamecocks don’t have a sparkling track record versus the teams remaining in the tournament. They’re 1-2 in games versus the sports elite, getting outscored by 16 points, and failing to reach 70 in any of those contests.
UConn vs South Carolina Odds
Odds as of April 2 at DraftKings and Kalshi. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on Women’s March Madness.
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As of Thursday night, you’re going to want to have access to both traditional sportsbooks and prediction markets to find the best odds for this game. DraftKings has the best price on UConn -6.5 and their moneyline, while Kalshi is trading the Gamecocks +6.5 and their moneyline at significantly better odds.
Total-wise, the prediction market also has the best price on over 136.5 points, but DK has more favorable odds on the under.
Chris Amberley
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
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