Expert Picks & How to Watch Tennessee vs Vanderbilt on Saturday, Feb 21

• No. 19 Vanderbilt is a 3.5 point favorite over Tennessee Saturday afternoon
• UT has a decided advantage head-to-head in recent years over rival VU
• See my Tennessee vs Vanderbilt picks and predictions on Saturday

A pivotal Southeastern Conference duel tips off Saturday afternoon as the Tennessee Volunteers (19-7, 9-4 SEC, 3-4 road, 11-14-1 ATS) visit the 19th ranked Vanderbilt Commodores (21-5, 8-5 SEC, 12-2 home, 14-12-0 ATS) at 2:00 pm ET / 11:00 am PT. ESPN will carry the national broadcast.

Tennessee has won three of their last four against Vanderbilt, but widening the lens shows they’ve been dominant in the series, emerging victorious in 14 of 16 battles. This betting preview dissects the key angles, market movements, and value picks for this high-intensity conference clash.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Picks & Predictions

In this Tennessee vs Vanderbilt tilt, I’m bullish on the underdog Volunteers to cover the spread, and even am leaning towards them on the moneyline as well. They’ve taken seven of their last eight, while Vanderbilt has been harder to predict, going 2-2 in the last four and 5-5 in the last ten after starting brilliantly at 16-0.

UT vs VU Spread Pick: Tennessee Volunteers +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

The Volunteers historically have owned the Commodores, snagging a whopping 14 of 16. However, it has been closer in the last five matchups, with three victories for UT and two for VU. The key that I’m honing in on, however, is that in those two Vandy triumphs, they won by just one point each time. At least historically, taking the Tennessee +3.5 spread versus their rivals would result in a winning ticket 16 straight times. I, like the public, are liking Tennessee to cover.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt H2H Statistics

In the ten major statistical categories, it’s a wash with both leading in five each. The Vols strength of schedule has been tougher, but Vandy has scored more, with Tennessee allowing fewer points.

The visitors have two players that clearly stand above the rest – freshmen forward Nate Ament (18.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG), which paces the squad, and senior guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18.1 PPG, team-leading 5.5 APG). The home unit has three players averaging double digits in points, with sophomore guard Tyler Tanner averaging the most points (18.6) and assists (5.3).

Senior guard Duke Miles, who is second on Vandy with 16.6 PPG, is expected back after missing the last six affairs (knee surgery), which is the reason why the line has shifted from -1.5 to a healthier -3.5 for the home team.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Public-Betting Splits

The data from Saturday’s college basketball public betting percentages reveal a divide between wagering the favorites, but then believing the underdogs can cover the spread.

Moneyline Splits

Bettors are showing little hesitation regarding the outright winner with a strong proclivity for Vanderbilt.

• Tennessee Volunteers: 27% of Bets / 57% of Money
• Vanderbilt Commodores: 73% of Bets / 43% of Money

The overwhelming support for Vandy on the moneyline indicates the market views the Commodores as a safe leverage piece for parlays, showing little confidence in a Vols upset.

ATS Splits

The spread market highlights a potential value opportunity on the favorite.

• Tennessee Volunteers: 69% of Bets / 61% of Money
• Vanderbilt Commodores: 31% of Bets / 39% of Money

69% of spread tickets are backing the Volunteers to cover +3.5, and the money percentage for Tennessee (61%) shows bettors are thinking they’ll be able to cover. Despite the public believing in Vanderbilt to win the game, they aren’t getting much love to cover the -3.5 point spread.

Total Market

• Over 149.5: 33% of Bets / 33% of Money
• Under 149.5: 67% of Bets / 67% of Money

A significant majority of both tickets and handle are on the under 149.5 points at 67% for each, despite the over being 73% and 77% earlier Friday. On the season, Vandy has the eight most points per outing in the country (88.1), while the Vols have 81.3 PPG, which totals 169.4, well over the listed total.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Odds

Saturday’s college basketball odds price Vanderbilt as a considerable favorite. Interestingly, Vandy on the ML is now -188, after being -138 earlier Friday, and the point spread went from -1.5 to -3.5.

• Moneyline: Vanderbilt -188 | Tennessee +155
• Point Spread: Commodores -3.5 (-110) | Volunteers +3.5 (-110)
• Total: Over/Under 149.5 (O -115, U -105)

Odds as of 8:45 pm ET, February 20, at FanDuel.

Implied Probabilities and Win Projection

Removing the vig provides the market’s true expectations for the matchup:

• Tennessee Win Probability: 37.5%
• Vanderbilt Win Probability: 62.5%

The market assigns Vanderbilt just above a 62% chance of victory, consistent with the -188 moneyline price.

Moneyline Payout Calculation

For bettors assessing the risk-reward ratio on a standard $100 wager:

• Betting Tennessee (+155): Returns a profit of $155 (Total Payout: $255.00).
• Betting Vanderbilt (-188): Returns a profit of $53.00 (Total Payout: $153.00).

In the March Madness championship odds, Tennessee can be found at +6000 at Caesars, while Vanderbilt is +7000, indicating they’re both considerable longshots.