Expert Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits for #2 UConn vs #15 Furman

• No. 2 UConn is a massive 21.5-point favorite over No. 15 Furman
• The Over commands more than 96% of both tickets and handle, signaling overwhelming market consensus
• See my top UConn vs Furman picks and predictions for March 20

How to Watch UConn vs Furman

The #2 UConn Huskies (29-5, 13-21 ATS) begin their post-season run looking to quickly erase the memory of a sluggish 72-52 Big East championship loss to St. John’s. They will face the #15 Furman Paladins (22-12, 14-17 ATS), who punched their NCAA Tournament ticket by capturing the SoCon Tournament title in a commanding 76-61 victory over East Tennessee State.

Tip-off is scheduled for Friday, March 20, at 10:00 pm ET on TBS, broadcasting live from the neutral hardwood of Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA.

The market has positioned Connecticut as a massive favorite. Head coach Dan Hurley’s squad boasts elite depth and championship pedigree, led by fifth-year senior Alex Karaban. On the other side, Furman enters on a hot streak, propelled by freshman guard Alex Wilkins, who recently dropped 34 points in the SoCon semifinals.

UConn vs Furman Odds & Lines

Prediction Markets

FUR vs UConn Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

UConn

96%

Furman +21.5

55%

Under 137,5

52%

Over 137,5

49%

UConn -21.5

48%

Furman

5%

Predict

UConn is listed as a 21.5-point favorite at prediction site Kalshi. On the moneyline, the Huskies are priced at 96¢ to win, which is equal to -2400 traditional odds. Furman to win is trading at just 5¢ (+1900).

To put this steep pricing into perspective, a $100 wager on the heavily favored moneyline would yield a meager profit of just $4. Conversely, a speculative $100 bet on the underdog to win outright offers $1900 in pure profit.

Odds as of March 20. Claim SBD’s Kalshi referral code.

UConn vs Furman Picks & Predictions

While upset narratives always swirl around the Paladins given their 2023 history, I am strictly looking at the quantitative matchup to find my betting edge.

When breaking down a mismatch of this magnitude, finding betting value requires looking past the unplayable -5882 moneyline.

ATS Pick: UConn -21.5 (+108 at Kalshi)

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From a personnel standpoint, UConn features a balanced, physical attack. Alex Karaban (12.6 PPG) brings a steady veteran presence alongside NABC All-District selections Silas Demary Jr, Solo Ball, Tarris Reed Jr, and Braylon Mullins. Furman will counter with dynamic freshman guard Alex Wilkins (17.7 PPG, 4.7 APG), but his ability to generate clean looks against Connecticut’s length will dictate whether this game stays competitive past the first media timeout.

Laying 20.5 points on a neutral floor requires conviction, but the sheer disparity between these two programs is impossible to ignore. Connecticut is built to overwhelm mid-major competition. The situational trends heavily support a blowout: Furman has a 0% win rate against top-100 teams this season (0-4); they lack the size and athleticism to compete against elite rosters.

Connecticut will assert its physical advantages in the paint early, dominating the glass to cover the 21.5-point handicap by the final buzzer.

Game-Total Pick: Over 136.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

To stay within striking distance, Furman will have to take offensive risks and push the tempo through Wilkins. This urgency will lead to extra possessions, hurried shots, and high-efficiency transition opportunities for Connecticut. Because of this anticipated game script, I am aligned with the heavy market handle backing the Over 136.5.

UConn vs Furman Betting Splits

Analyzing the Friday’s college basketball public betting splits provides a glimpse into how the market is capitalizing on this mismatch.

Spread Betting Splits

Despite the overwhelming talent disparity, bettors are backing the underdog to cover the massive number. Furman commands 88.37% of the betting tickets and an even higher 92.02% of the total spread handle. Connecticut is drawing just 11.63% of the bets and a mere 7.98% of the money.

Total Betting Splits

When it comes to the game total, the consensus is nearly unanimous. The OVER is absorbing 96.11% of the tickets and 96.31% of the overall stake. Those banking on a slower, half-court defensive struggle are vastly outnumbered, with the UNDER seeing just 3.69% of the money.

Moneyline Betting Splits

The moneyline presents the most intriguing discrepancy on the board. A staggering 96.03% of the betting tickets are tied to Connecticut. However, those tickets only account for 46.08% of the total handle. Meanwhile, Furman has attracted just 3.97% of the tickets, but those sparse wagers make up 53.92% of the overall stake. While it is tempting to label this a “sharp vs public” scenario given the split, it falls just short of the 60% threshold required in both categories. It simply highlights that some larger financial backers are willing to throw a dart at the highly lucrative +1800 payout.

UConn vs Furman Team Stats Comparison

To handicap exactly why Connecticut is laying nearly 21 points, I have to look at the advanced resume metrics. Since traditional offensive and defensive efficiency ratings are off the board for this specific window, evaluating the NET Rating and quadrant performance is the most accurate way to quantify this gap.

The most glaring takeaway from the statistical comparison is the immense gap in schedule difficulty. Connecticut boasts the fifth-best NET Rating in the nation, fueled by a grueling Strength of Schedule (0.5667). They have clashed with the best teams in the country and thrived, logging an elite 70% win rate (7-3) against Top 25 opponents.

Conversely, Furman simply does not have the resume to suggest they can hang with a top-tier powerhouse. The underdog padded its record by feasting on lower-level competition, racking up 16 wins against teams ranked 151st or worse. However, when forced to step up in class, they crumbled, going a dismal 0-4 against teams ranked between 51 and 100.

Connecticut’s stellar 83.3% win rate (5-1) on neutral floors suggests they are unaffected by unfamiliar postseason environments.

Check out SBD’s comprehensive March Madness coverage, including:

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• The Public’s Favorite NCAA Tournament Picks
• March Madness Champion Odds After Selection Sunday
• Final Four Odds for March Madness 2026 – Odds to Reach Final Four for All 68 Teams
• NCAA Tournament Odds for All First Round Games – Opening Spreads, Totals, Moneylines

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