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Final Four Line Movement for Michigan/Arizona, UConn/Illinois – Favorite Has Flipped in One Game
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- Sharps and the general public have had 48 hours to bet on the Final Four lines
- The favorite has flipped in Michigan vs Arizona
- See the Final Four odds movement for both
The 2026 Final Four is set for Saturday, April 4th, in Indianapolis. The two national championship longshots – #3 Illinois and #2 UConn – will meet in the early game at 6:09 pm ET, followed by the two heavyweights – #1 Arizona and #1 Michigan – at 8:49 pm ET.
I published the opening Arizona vs Michigan odds and opening Illinois vs UConn odds immediately after lines came out on Sunday. Roughly 48 hours later, how have the Final Four odds moved?
The table below sets out the Arizona/Michigan line movement. The second section covers the UConn/Illinois odds movement.
Arizona vs Michigan Line Movement
The Arizona/Michigan moneyline has moved slightly in favor of the Wolverines. FanDuel opened with the moneyline as a pick’em (-110 odds both ways). As of Tuesday afternoon, Michigan is a -125 favorite with Arizona a +104 underdog.
The line movement at prediction site Kalshi has been even more pronounced. Arizona was a 51¢ (-104) favorite to reach the national championship game on Sunday evening, with Michigan a 50¢ (+100) underdog.
As of March 31st, Michigan is trading at 53¢ (-113) and Arizona in in plus-money at 48¢ (+108).
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The game total hasn’t budged an inch. It opened at 157.5 with -110 odds both ways and remains there as of 12:23 pm ET on Tuesday.
Curiously, the March Madness championship odds at Kalshi list Arizona and Michigan as 34¢ (+194) co-favorites, despite the Final Four odds giving Michigan a small but clear edge.
Illinois vs UConn Odds & Line Movement
The Illinois vs UConn odds haven’t moved as much. The spread is still identical: ILL -2.5 with UConn a -120 favorite to cover.
The moneyline has shifted subtly in the Huskies’ favor (+112 to +110) with the Illini fading slightly from -134 to -132.
The situation at Kalshi is roughly the inverse. The minimal line movement has seen UConn get slightly longer, dropping from 47¢ (-113) to 46¢ (-117).
Illinois remains a 55¢ favorite (-122).
Bookmark SBD’s college basketball odds page to see up-to-the-minute lines up until tip-off on Saturday.
Looking for more Final Four coverage? Check out our A.I. model’s Final Four computer picks.
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Sascha Paruk
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
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