First Four A.I. Picks for Texas/NC State & UMBC/Howard – Best Bets for March 17

The 2026 NCAA Tournament kicks off tonight in Dayton tonight with the #16 UMBC Retrievers (24-8, ATS) facing the #16 Howard Bison (23-10, ATS) and the #11 Texas Longhorns (18-14, ATS) hitting the floor against the #11 NC State Wolfpack (20-13, ATS). The winner of UMBC/Howard will meet Midwest #1 Michigan in the round of 64 on Thursday. The winner of NC State/Texas will face West #6 BYU.

I have run both games through Sportradar’s internal A.I. model to generate the computer’s best picks. The table below summarizes the picks and the best-available odds. Under the table, find the A.I.’s rationale for each wager.

A.I. First Four Picks Today (March 17)

The A.I. likes UMBC to win straight-up as a narrow favorite, along with the over in Longhorns/Wolfpack. UMBC/Howard tips first (6:40 pm ET), followed by Texas/NC State at 9:15 pm ET.

A.I. Pick for Texas vs NC State

A.I. Pick: Over 157.5 Total Points (-115 at FanDuel)

A.I. Rationale: “Texas carries the SEC banner into Dayton, and head coach Sean Miller brings his squad into the postseason heavily battle-tested. Navigating a brutal SEC schedule – finishing 9-9 in conference play – Texas secured six Quad 1 victories. When looking at the NET Rankings, Texas profiles as a team whose offense thrives when dictating tempo against non-conference foes. They are heavily driven by an offensive rating that spikes when facing uptempo ACC defenses.

NC State counters with a dynamic, four-headed scoring monster that creates matchup nightmares in transition. The offensive balance is staggering: Paul McNeil, Quadir Copeland, and Ven-Allen Lubin all average exactly 13.9 points per game, while Darrion Williams dominates the glass and adds 13.8 PPG. The Wolfpack shoot an efficient 38.8% from beyond the arc and average 83.7 points per contest.

The most critical data point for this matchup is historical context. These teams clashed earlier this season on November 26, resulting in a 102-97 Texas victory. That shootout featured a massive 115 combined second-half points. Expect another high-possession track meet tonight. Instead of sweating out a one-point spread, bank on the tempo and back the Over.”

A.I. Pick for UMBC vs Howard

A.I. Pick: UMBC Moneyline (-105 at BetMGM)

A.I. Rationale: “In stark contrast to the late-night track meet, this battle between the America East champion UMBC (22-8) and the MEAC champion Howard is shaping up to be a possession-by-possession grind. Howard enters Dayton riding the high of capturing its third MEAC title in four years – an elite 75% championship conversion rate over that span that highlights their institutional toughness.

However, UMBC relies on methodical, half-court execution, which is exactly why the oddsmakers have suppressed the total to a low 139.5 points. Every single bucket will come at a premium in this First Four showdown.

In low-scoring, tightly contested games, my analytical model always leans toward backing the team with the highest true win probability. Stripping away the sportsbook’s vig gives UMBC a 52.18% chance to survive and advance. Instead of laying the -1 spread and risking a frustrating push if UMBC wins by exactly one point, the sharp play is taking them on the moneyline. Lock in UMBC outright to punch their ticket to the Round of 64.”

Check out SBD’s comprehensive March Madness coverage, including:

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