Florida vs Arizona Picks, Predictions, Odds & Betting Splits (Nov. 3)

• The #3 Florida Gators meet the #13 Arizona Wildcats in Las Vegas on Monday
• Both teams lost nearly 60% of their minutes from last season
• See the Florida vs Arizona picks, predictions, odds, and betting splits on Nov. 3

After winning last year’s national championship game by a bucket over Houston in an instant classic, the #3 Florida Gators (36-4 SU, 29-11 ATS last season) start their quest to repeat with a stiff neutral-court test against the #13 Arizona Wildcats (24-13 SU, 20-17 ATS last season) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas at 4:00 pm PT/7:00 pm ET.

The Gators return 40.2% of their minutes from last year’s title-winning squad, led by 6’11 junior center Alex Condon (10.6 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.3 BPG), 6’9 junior forward Thomas Haugh (9.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.2 APG), and 6’2 senior guard Boogie Fland (13.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 5.1 APG), a transfer from Arkansas.

The Wildcats return 41.1% of minutes from a team that went 24-13 and earned a #4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Senior guard Jaden Bradley (12.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.7 APG) is joined by the nation’s second-ranked recruiting class, headed by 6’7 power forward Koa Peat (#10 overall at ESPN) and 6’4 two-guard Brayden Burries (#12).

Below, I have set out my two favorites Florida vs Arizona picks, followed by the latest odds, and the current public-betting splits.

Florida vs Arizona Picks & Predictions

FLA vs ARI Pick #1: Florida Moneyline

The Gators opened around -180 favorites on the moneyline and the line has steadily been moving toward the Wildcats in the last 24 hours. Florida obviously lost a ton from last year’s championship team, including its three leading scorers – Walter Clayton Jr, Will Richard, and Alijah Martin – who are all on NBA rosters.

But Todd Golden basically has his entire frontcourt returning, and I expect Alex Condon, in particular, to be dominant tonight. Condon was a likely first-round pick in the 2025 draft before he pulled his name. The athletic big is going to have three full inches on everyone in the Arizona roster, outside of lightly-used 7’2 center Motiejus Krivas, who’s only projected to play 30% of minutes by BartTorvik.com. Florida PF Thomas Haugh will be the second-tallest player on the floor. He and Condon are both threats from deep, shooting 34.0% and 32.8% from three last season, respectively.

Florida quietly had the sixth-best D-Rating in the country last year, per KenPom, and Condon is the anchor around the rim.

FLA vs ARI Pick #2: First Half Under 78.0 Points

Golden’s Gators, who ran at the 57th-fastest tempo in the country last year, are going to turn into Virginia overnight. But the reality is that they don’t have the dynamic, athletic guards they did last year. Walter Clayton Jr excelled in transition. This year’s Gators will have to be more methodical as they funnel more of their offense through their two elite big men.

With Arizona (49th-fastest tempo last year) likely introducing three freshman to its starting lineup, there are bound to be some growing pains early, especially against a defense as good as Florida’s.

Yesterday, the first-half total was 75.5 points. As of Monday morning, it’s ballooned to 78.0 points, and that’s a gift to bettors. Haslametrics and Torvik both have the full game finishing under 160, which aligns much more closely with the 75.5-point first-half total that was on the board yesterday.

Florida vs Arizona Odds & Betting Lines

As of 11:13 am ET, the best Florida moneyline is down to -150 at ESPN Bet, while the longest Arizona moneyline is now +146 at FanDuel. The spread still ranges from Florida -3.5 (-102) at FanDuel to -4.0 (-110) at Caesars.

The game total shows a massive range. BetMGM has it down at 162.5 with -110 odds on the over, while Caesars has it as 164.0 with -110 odds on the under. Even before tipoff, savvy bettors have a 1.5-point middle opportunity.

Florida is the +1400 fourth-favorite in the March Madness odds ahead of the season. Arizona is priced at +3500 to win its first title since 1997.

Odds commentary as of 11:13 am ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best available price for each market if the college basketball odds shift before tipoff.

Arizona vs Florida Public-Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting splits show the vast majority of moneyline bets and moneyline handle on Florida to win. The Gators are currently getting 91% of handle on 99% of wagers. But the fact that Arizona has 9% of handle on just 1% of tickets indicates bigger bets, on average, are on the Wildcats.

The ATS splits show the same thing to an even greater degree. Arizona is getting 68% of money bet against the spread on just 36% of ATS tickets.

The bet% and handle% are perfectly aligned when it comes to the total. The over has attracted 84% of money on 84% of the wagers.