Florida vs Georgia Picks for Wednesday’s Rivalry Game in Athens

• Florida pounded Georgia 92-77 on January 6
• Georgia’s leading scorer Jeremiah Wilkinson is ruled out
• Our deep-dive analysis reveals the best bets for Florida at Georgia

Life comes at you fast in the SEC.

When Georgia faced Florida on Jan. 6, the Bulldogs were 13-1 and ranked No. 18 in the country.

Fast forward a month and Georgia is now 17-6 overall, 5-5 in the SEC and on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Tonight, Georgia has an opportunity to improve its resume when it hosts No. 14 Florida. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (ESPN2). The Gators won Round 1, 92-77 in Gainesville.

Florida (17-6, 8-2) leads the SEC race and is a 9.5-point road favorite tonight against Georgia, which will be without leading scorer Jeremiah Wilkinson.

This breakdown analyzes the betting value, determining whether the ranked visitors can cover the number in Athens.

Florida vs Georgia Best Bets, Picks & Predictions

With Florida sitting at the pinnacle of the SEC standings, oddsmakers have installed them as significant road favorites. The statistical mismatch in the frontcourt, combined with Georgia’s injury woes, suggests the visitors have a distinct edge.

The Spread: Florida -9.5 (-105) at Bet365

Despite the rivalry atmosphere and revenge angle, the smart money lies with Florida to cover -9.5. The primary catalyst is Florida’s overwhelming dominance on the glass.

The Gators feature the SEC’s premier rebounding unit, led by Rueben Chinyelu (11.48 rebounds per game). He gets it done on the offensive glass, too, grabbing 97 this season. Complemented by Alex Condon (8.05 RPG) and Thomas Haugh (6.43 RPG), Florida creates second-chance opportunities that demoralize opponents.

For Georgia, the absence of leading scorer Jeremiah Wilkinson (shoulder) severely limits the Dawgs’ ability to keep pace. While center Somto Cyril is an elite rim protector (2.65 blocks per game), he’s prone to foul trouble (3.22 fouls per game). If Florida’s bigs get Cyril into early foul trouble, Georgia lacks the depth to stop Florida’s interior scoring. With Florida averaging high efficiency from leaders like Haugh (17.8 PPG), they have the firepower to extend this lead into double digits against a compromised Bulldogs offense.

Florida blitzed Georgia in the second half of the first game, outscoring the Dawgs 51-37 to break open a close game. Georgia made just 4-of-19 three-pointers in that game, but the Gators were just 6-for-25. Georgia averages 9.2 made three-pointers per game.

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The Total: Under 166.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The teams combined for 169 points in January, but this number feels inflated given the defensive capabilities of both frontcourts and the key injury news. We are backing the Under 166.5 at BetMGM.

Georgia’s defensive identity is anchored by the shot-blocking presence of Cyril (61 blocks). His ability to alter shots at the rim forces opponents to settle for lower-percentage jumpers. Furthermore, the loss of Wilkinson (17.1 PPG) removes Georgia’s most dynamic perimeter scorer, likely stalling their offensive rhythm.

On the other side, Florida’s Condon contributes 1.45 blocks per game and Chinyelu adds another 1.13. With both teams possessing legitimate rim protection, easy layups will be scarce. Unless both teams shoot lights-out from beyond the arc — where players like Florida’s Haugh (35.2% 3PT) are capable but not automatic — this game should grind to a total closer to the 150s.

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Public Betting Data

The college basketball public betting trends for Wednesday night reveal two very different stories: a massive consensus on the outright winner and a tightly contested market regarding the total.

Moneyline Splits

The betting public and the handle are in complete lockstep regarding the winner, with overwhelming support for the road favorite.

• Florida (Away): 96.65% of bets | 93.46% of money
• Georgia (Home): 3.35% of bets | 6.54% of money

It is rare to see a road team in conference play garner over 90% of both the ticket count and the handle, but Florida’s recent dominance has clearly instilled confidence. There is no “Sharp vs. Public” divide here; the market sees a distinct mismatch in Athens.

Total Splits

While the side is one-way traffic, the total tells a story of uncertainty. Action on the Over/Under is nearly split down the middle.

• Under: 51.21% of bets | 52.98% of money
• Over: 48.79% of bets | 47.02% of money

Bettors are essentially flipping a coin on the total, though there is a minuscule lean toward the Under. This slight preference aligns with our recommendation to take the Under 166.5, anticipating that rim protection and the Wilkinson injury will keep the score in check.

Florida vs Georgia Stats

Note the massive gap in RPI and Strength of Schedule (SOS), which validates Florida’s superior standing.

Florida vs Georgia Odds

Here are the latest betting lines for Wednesday’s SEC showdown at Stegeman Coliseum.

• Moneyline: Florida -452 | Georgia +343
• Spread: Florida -9.5 (-105) | Georgia +9.5 (-115)
• Total: Over/Under 166.5 (-110)

Odds as of February 11, 2026, from BetMGM.

The betting market has reacted sharply, with the spread widening significantly from the opener of -6.5 to -9.5, likely due to the injury news regarding Wilkinson. The total has also seen upward movement to 166.5, though smart money appears to be looking at the Under given the missing offensive production for the home team.

Implied Winning Probabilities

Based on the current moneyline odds, the implied probabilities (vig-free) paint a clear picture:

• Florida: 78.4%
• Georgia: 21.6%

Payout Calculation

For bettors looking to place a wager on the outright winner, here is what a $20.00 bet would return on each side at top sportsbooks:

• Betting on Florida (-452): A $20 wager on the favorites would yield a profit of $4.42, resulting in a total payout of $24.42.
• Betting on Georgia (+343): A $20 wager on the underdog would yield a profit of $68.60, resulting in a total payout of $88.60.