Florida vs UConn Picks and Predictions: Jimmy V Classic Betting Preview at MSG

• The public is hammering the over in Florida vs UConn in the 2025 Jimmy V Classic
• The
• Chinyelu Over 9.5 rebounds presents elite value as Florida’s anchor will dominate the glass in this marquee Madison Square Garden matchup

The Jimmy V Classic delivers a premium non-conference clash as the #5 UConn Huskies (8-1, 2-0 neutral, 3-6 ATS, 3-6 O/U) battle the #18 Florida Gators (5-3, 2-2 neutral, 2-6 ATS, 2-6 O/U) under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. Tuesday’s 9:00 pm ET tip-off airs nationally on ESPN.

UConn enters riding a four-game win streak, while reigning-national champion Florida seeks a signature victory after going 0-2 against their first pair of top-ten opponents.

Tuesday’s college basketball odds list the Huskies as 3.5-point “neutral-court” favorites, though bettors can safely assume a partisan UConn crowd at MSG. Below, I have set out my UConn vs Florida picks, plus the latest odds and public-betting splits.

UConn vs Florida Betting Predictions & Picks

ATS Best Bet: Florida Gators +3.5 (-105) at FanDuel

UConn’s offensive attack flows through a balanced scoring committee. Forward Alex Karaban anchors the perimeter at 13.4 points per game while shooting an elite 41.5% from three-point range, while Tarris Reed Jr provides interior presence at 15.5 points per game on stellar 67.6 field-goal percentage. Guard Solo Ball contributes 14.6 points per game, and floor general Silas Demary Jr orchestrates the offense with 5.6 assists per game and an excellent 3.13 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Florida’s path to covering lies in exploiting UConn’s most vulnerable area: rebounding. The Gators dominate the glass with a staggering +10.7 advantage over the Huskies, led by center Rueben Chinyelu’s nation-leading 11.3 rebounds per game. Fellow big men Alex Condon (9.0 RPG, 15.1 PPG) and leading scorer Thomas Haugh (18.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG) form a formidable frontcourt triumvirate that can control tempo and create extra possessions.

Florida’s recent 67-66 true-road loss at Duke proves they can hang the best of the best, regardless of environment. Their physical identity should frustrate UConn’s interior-heavy offensive scheme.

Florida is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following single-digit losses, and their rebounding dominance provides the perfect formula to muck up the game and keep possessions limited. UConn’s efficiency is impressive, but grinding contests favor the more physical team, and Florida’s frontcourt presents matchup problems the Huskies haven’t faced this season.

Best Player Prop to Bet: Rueben Chinyelu Over 9.5 Rebounds (-115) at BetMGM

This represents the strongest betting edge on the board. Chinyelu’s 11.3 rebounds per game ranks fifth nationally, and he has hit double-digits boards in six of the last seven games. His role becomes magnified in a contest where controlling the glass is Florida’s primary path to victory.

He’s collected 90 total rebounds across eight games, and UConn’s smaller frontcourt presents an ideal matchup for his relentless motor. UConn ranks just 100th nationally in OREB% (34.0%). They’re better on the defensive end (74.4%, 34th) but if Chinyelu is mopping up at his own end, he’s not going to need many offensive boards to surpass this nume.

Florida vs UConn Updated Odds & Betting Lines

The line, which opened at UConn -4.5, has moved a full point in Florida’s direction, sitting at UConn -3.5 across the board at the time of publication. On the moneyline, bettors can find the best price on the Huskies (-170) at bet365, while DraftKings has the longest odds on a Florida win.

The game total ranges from 145.5 to 146.5 at the moment. The best over number is at bet365 (145.5 at -110); the best under number is at DraftKings (146.5 at -120).

After removing sportsbook vig, the implied win probabilities show UConn with a 61.53% chance of victory versus Florida’s 38.47% upset odds.

A successful $20 wager on favored UConn (-170) returns $11.80 in profit, while that same $20 bet on underdog Florida (+154) would generate a $30.80 profit if the Gators secure the upset.

FLA vs UConn Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting market reveals a fascinating split between casual and professional action, particularly on the spread where money percentages tell a different story than ticket counts.

Moneyline Consensus Favors UConn

Public sentiment strongly supports the favored Huskies, with 91.39% of moneyline tickets and 91.12% of handle backing UConn for the straight-up victory. This overwhelming consensus reflects the Huskies’ superior resume and ranking advantage.

Spread Market Shows Sharp vs Public Divide

The spread betting presents a more nuanced picture with clear professional interest in the underdog:

• Public bettors favor UConn -5.5 with 62% of tickets
• However, Florida has attracted 54% of total handle, indicating larger, more confident wagers on the Gators.

Statistical H2H: Florida vs UConn

The numbers reveal two teams approaching success through vastly different philosophies, with UConn’s precision clashing against Florida’s brute force approach.

UConn’s statistical profile screams championship-caliber team. Their +19.7 point differential stems from elite defense (60.4 points allowed) and efficient offense (49.1% field goal percentage, 34.0% from three). The Huskies’ 2.21 assist-to-turnover ratio, orchestrated by Demary Jr’s steady hand, demonstrates the ball control and execution that separates contenders from pretenders.

Florida’s numbers reveal a team built for specific situations rather than overall dominance. Their 44.9 rebounds per game create a massive +10.7 advantage over UConn’s 34.2, representing their primary weapon for staying competitive. This glass-crashing identity, anchored by Chinyelu’s national-elite rebounding, provides the foundation for our player prop recommendation.

The shooting disparity is concerning for Florida – their 43.2% field-goal percentage and 27.4% three-point shooting suggest they’ll struggle in transition games. However, their rebounding advantage should limit UConn’s fast-break opportunities while creating extra possessions to compensate for inefficient shooting nights.

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