Houston vs Texas Tech Predictions, Picks & Best Bets (Jan 24)

• #6 Houston is a 1.5-point favorite over #12 Texas Tech in Big 12 hoops action on Saturday
• The Cougars defeated the Red Raiders 69-65 earlier this month
• See my Houston vs Texas Tech predictions, picks and best bets for the Jan. 24 matchup, below

One of the most compelling matchups on Saturday’s loaded college hoops slate features #6 Houston (17-1, 5-0 Big 12) visiting #12 Texas Tech (15-4, 5-1 Big 12).

Online sportsbooks are siding with the Cougars by 1.5 points in the college basketball odds, which opens up a big opportunity to ride the home underdog.

The action gets underway at 2pm ET at United Supermarkets Arena, in Lubbock, TX, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Houston vs Texas Tech predictions, picks and best bets.

Houston vs Texas Tech Predictions and Picks

ATS Pick: Texas Tech +1.5 (-110 at Caesars)

I’m taking the points with the Red Raiders, and will sprinkle a little bit on their moneyline as well. Texas Tech is playing like a top-10 contender in the NCAA Tournament champion odds over the last month, posting a 7-1 record during that stretch.

The lone loss came at Houston, in a game they blew down the stretch. Texas Tech committed 14 turnovers and surrendered 12 offensive boards. Make no mistake, defense and rebounding are two of the Cougars calling cards, but the Red Raiders are one of the few teams equipped to challenge this top-5 Houston defense.

Texas Tech ranks 13th in both offensive efficiency and 3-point shooting percentage. Christian Anderson is the best point guard in college basketball, averaging 20 points and 7 assists per contest, while shooting 45% from behind the arc.

Inside, the Red Raiders JT Toppin is a force, and can give the elite Houston interior all kinds of problems. Toppin is a phenomenal scorer down low, with a high basketball IQ. He diagnoses plays quickly, and always seems to find the right man when facing a double-team. Texas Tech has plenty of excellent outside shooters, and Toppin will make the Cougars pay if they commit too many bodies to him.

Key Statistical Metrics: Houston vs Texas Tech

At the other end of the floor, Texas Tech has significantly stepped up their game. Their newfound commitment to defense, along with Houston’s inefficiencies on offense, make me want to bet not only the Red Raiders +1.5, but also under 141.5 points as well.

Houston vs Texas Tech Best Bets

Game-Total Pick: Over 141.5 (-110 at Caesars)

For the first month plus of the season, Texas Tech was sitting outside the top-80 in defensive efficiency. Since then, they’ve flipped the script and rank 15th in that category. The turnaround in their own end is especially impressive given they’ve played three top-11 teams during that stretch, in addition to an underrated Oklahoma State team.

The Cougars on the other hand haven’t shot the ball well all season. They rank 105th in scoring, 146th in effective field goal percentage, and 167th in three-point efficiency. You’d think numbers like that would hold them back, yet they’ve won 11 straight coming in.

Houston relies entirely too much on freshman guard Kingston Flemings, while their other top-two scorers Emmanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan have struggled with consistency. Uzan in particular has been a big disappointment this season, after a phenomenal March Madness run last year.

The senior is shooting only 30% from three this season, and was 2-for-12 in his first meeting with the Red Raiders. That performance was far from an outlier however, as he followed up that game with a 1-for-10 outing, and has three additional sub 28% shooting efforts over the last seven weeks.

Per college basketball public betting data, Houston’s offensive woes have contributed to a rash of unders lately. That side of the total has hit in five of their last six games, including in their first matchup with Texas Tech.