Houston vs Duke Picks, Predictions & Odds

• Houston enters as a 5.5-point underdog against Duke in the Final Four
• The Cougars boast the nation’s #1 defense, allowing just 56.5 points per game in the NCAA Tournament
• See my Houston vs Duke predictions and prop pick below, plus current betting odds

All eyes are on San Antonio as the Houston Cougars (34-4) and Duke Blue Devils (35-3) clash in an epic Final Four showdown at the Alamodome on Saturday.

Oddsmakers have tabbed the freshman-laden Blue Devils as 5.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds, but don’t sleep on Kelvin Sampson’s experienced, defensively-stout Cougars. Tip-off is slated for 8:49pm ET on CBS.

Houston vs Duke Predictions

• ATS Best Bet: Houston +5.5

• Over/Under Best Bet: Under 136.5

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Let’s cut to the chase – I’m backing Houston +5.5 as my best bet for this Final Four showdown. The Cougars check all the boxes I look for in an NCAA Tournament underdog.

It starts with their suffocating defense, which ranks #1 in the nation in adjusted efficiency. In four tournament games, the Cougars are allowing a measly 56.5 points per contest and holding foes to 37% shooting. They make every possession a grind.

That feeds into another Houston strength – dictating pace. The Cougars rank 360th out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo. They slow the game to a crawl, shorten possessions, and increase variance. That’s an ideal recipe for an underdog.

It also helps to have an experienced roster in high-pressure moments. Houston’s top players like J’Wan Roberts and LJ Cryer are battle-tested juniors and seniors. For Duke, projected top pick Cooper Flagg is still just 18 years old and surrounded by fellow freshmen. When push comes to shove, I’ll side with the more seasoned squad.

Recent betting trends also point to Houston. The Cougars are a stellar 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Overall, Houston is 20-16-2 ATS on the season.

Don’t underestimate the significance of playing in their home state either. The Alamodome is just a 3-hour drive from Houston’s campus, so expect plenty of red in the crowd. In the last 30 years, seven of the eight teams to play a Final Four game in their home state won outright, including both underdogs.

While the Cougars aren’t known for their offense, they do have an elite-level equalizer – 3-point shooting. Houston ranks 5th in the nation from deep at 39.7%. That outside firepower allows them to keep pace without needing transition buckets against Duke’s lengthy defense.

We only have to look back to last year’s Elite 8 matchup for further evidence of how close these teams are. In that grinder, Duke eked out a 54-51 win. That 3-point margin would comfortably cover this 5.5-point spread.

Houston vs Duke Ratings

Even the advanced metrics from KenPom suggest this spread is inflated. His model projects a 68-66 Duke win – just a 2-point margin, well within the +5.5 for Houston backers.

One last factor to consider – the betting public is heavily backing Duke. As of Saturday at BetMGM, 81% of moneyline bets and 59% of spread wagers are on the Blue Devils. Historically, it’s been profitable to fade such lopsided public action, especially in big games like the Final Four.

Houston has proven their mettle with gutty tournament wins over tough teams like Purdue and Tennessee. They have the defense, experience, and coaching to give Duke all it can handle. In a game I expect to come down to the final minutes, I’m grabbing the 5.5 points with the Cougars.

Houston vs Duke Prop Pick

• Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 Points (-125) at BetMGM

While Cooper Flagg is undoubtedly one of the most talented players in the nation, I see him struggling to hit his usual scoring marks against Houston’s physicality.

In his last 14 games, Flagg has been held under 20 points a whopping 11 times, including three of Duke’s four NCAA Tournament matchups. The Cougars’ defense is perfectly designed to slow him down.

Houston ranks in the top-3 nationally in fewest Paint Points, Second-Chance Points, and Opponent 3PT%. That puts a ton of pressure on Flagg’s face-up game from the midrange and perimeter, neither of which are his strengths. The cavernous backdrop of the Alamodome also tends to hamper outside shooting percentages.

So much of Flagg’s scoring is predicated on fast breaks, offensive rebounds, and foul drawing. The grind-it-out pace and rugged defense of Houston will put a cap on those easy points. I expect Joseph Tugler to body him up and force tough looks all night.

With a lowered game total and a difficult individual matchup, I’m confidently backing Flagg to go Under 19.5 points at -125 odds.

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Houston vs Duke Betting Odds

The best price we can find on Houston +5.5 is -118 at BetMGM. The Cougars are +225 on the moneyline, with the Blue Devils coming back at -275. The total sits at 136.5 points, juiced to -115 to the Under.

Odds current as of April 7 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bet on the Final 4 with the BetMGM bonus code.

Per the college basketball team trends, Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Under is 5-1 in Houston’s last six games overall.