• Memphis has superior metrics and is a 1.5-point favorite at North Texas
• Why there is significant value on the Under 138.5
• Our analysis reveals the best bets for North Texas vs Memphis

Two American Conference teams fighting for postseason positioning clash tonight when Memphis visits North Texas. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET (ESPN).

Memphis (12-11, 7-4 AC) is third in the conference standings and enters as a slight road favorite. The Tigers have won three of their last four and are going for the season sweep after beating North Texas 57-48 to open league play.

North Texas (13-11, 4-7 AAC) is 11th in the AC. With Memphis laying a short number on the road, bettors must weigh the Tigers’ recent offensive resurgence against North Texas’ stout home defense.

We analyze the matchup and offer expert betting advice for Memphis at North Texas.

Memphis vs North Texas Predictions & Best Bets

Best Bet: Memphis Tigers -1.0 (-120) at Bet365

Several other books have the spread at -1.5, so shop around. Memphis offers value as a short road favorite, primarily due to a significant disparity in recent form and strength of schedule. The Tigers are 7-4 in the AC and have played the 137th toughest schedule nationally compared to North Texas at 199th.

The recent emergence of Sincere Parker has transformed the Memphis offense. Fresh off earning AAC Player of the Week honors, Parker exploded for a career-high 40 points against UAB and followed it up with a strong showing against Charlotte. His scoring punch off the bench complements the interior efficiency of Aaron Bradshaw, who is converting field goals at a 56.6% clip.

Conversely, North Texas relies heavily on high-volume, low-efficiency perimeter play. While the Mean Green defense is formidable, their offense often stagnates. Facing a Memphis team that has seemingly turned a corner after a tough mid-season stretch, the Tigers’ ability to generate high-percentage looks in the paint and in transition should allow them to cover this short number.

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Total Prediction: Under 138.0 (-115) at Bet365

The teams combined for just 105 points in Memphis’ 57-48 win over North Texas on New Year’s Eve.

Statistical indicators point toward another defensive grind rather than an offensive showcase. Both teams feature primary ball-handlers who have struggled with efficiency this season, a recipe for empty possessions and long scoring droughts.

• Inefficient Volume: North Texas’s offense runs through Je’Shawn Stevenson, who commands a 31.5% usage rate but shoots just 37.8% from the field and 31.5% from beyond the arc.
• Backcourt Struggles: Memphis point guard Dug McDaniel leads the team with 4.7 assists per game but has also struggled to find the bottom of the net, shooting 39.8% from the field.
• Pace and Protection: North Texas plays a methodical style that limits possession counts, while forward Dylan Arnett (24 blocks) provides the rim protection necessary to alter Memphis’s interior shots.

With two offenses led by guards shooting sub-40% and a North Texas defense allowing just 66.2 points per game, the Under is the sharp play.

Note: Odds subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

Public Betting

The college basketball betting public has taken a definitive stance, creating potential value for contrarian bettors on the total.

Moneyline Splits

The market is heavily backing the road team. The Memphis Tigers are receiving 64.15% of the moneyline tickets, indicating broad confidence in their superior conference record. Crucially, the handle supports the ticket count even more strongly; Memphis is commanding 76.44% of the total money wagered. This alignment between ticket count and handle suggests that recreational bettors and larger-volume players are aligned on the Tigers.

Total Splits

The total market presents a stark “Pros vs. Joes” or contrarian opportunity. The betting public is overwhelmingly anticipating a high-scoring affair, with the OVER drawing 83.55% of the bets and 83.84% of the money.

This lopsided sentiment creates a significant opportunity for those backing the Under. With the vast majority of liability on the Over, sportsbooks may be exposed if the defensive struggle predicted by the metrics—driven by North Texas’s pace and inefficient shooting—comes to fruition.

Memphis vs North Texas Stats & Trends

The Volume Shooting Dilemma

A major factor supporting the Under 138.5 is the inefficiency of North Texas’s primary option. Je’Shawn Stevenson carries a massive load (29.35% usage), yet shoots only 37.8%. While he averages 17.0 PPG, his tendency to force shots can lead to empty possessions. In contrast, Memphis forward Aaron Bradshaw provides a reliable interior safety valve (9.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG). In a close game, Memphis’s ability to get higher-percentage shots near the rim gives them a structural advantage over North Texas’s perimeter-reliant attack.

Memphis vs North Texas Odds

• Moneyline: Memphis Tigers -123 | North Texas Mean Green +102
• Spread: Memphis Tigers -1.5 (-106) | North Texas Mean Green +1.5 (-114)
• Total: Over 138.5 (-107) | Under 138.5 (-113)

Odds as of February 12, 2026, from consensus odds.

Implied Win Probabilities

Based on the current moneyline prices, the implied win probabilities (adjusted to remove the sportsbook vig) paint a picture of a near toss-up:

• Memphis Tigers: 52.7%
• North Texas Mean Green: 47.3%

Betting Payouts

For bettors looking to place a wager on the outright winner, here is the potential return on a standard $20 investment:

• A $20 bet on the Memphis Tigers (-123) would return $16.26 in profit for a total payout of $36.26.
• A $20 bet on the North Texas Mean Green (+102) would return $20.40 in profit for a total payout of $40.40.