Illinois vs Michigan State Expert Picks & Best Bets

• Illinois are 1.5-point favorites against Michigan State Saturday, February 7th
• 75% of the handle is on Illinois to hold serve on the moneyline
• See my Illinois vs Michigan State picks, predictions, and best bets, plus the latest odds and betting splits

A Big-Ten conference clash is set at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan as the 5th ranked Illinois Fighting Illini (20-3, 15-8 ATS) take on the 10th ranked Michigan State Spartans (19-4, 10-11-2 ATS). Tip-off is set for 8:00 pm ET / 5:00 pm PT with a national broadcast on FOX.

Illinois is now a slim 1.5-point favorite to defeat Michigan State after the Spartans were favored as of late Friday. MSU has won three in a row vs ISU, but the Fighting Illini have racked up twelve straight victories and the Spartans have dropped two in a row.

Illinois vs Michigan State Odds

The Fighting Illini are currently -114 moneyline favorites and are laying 1.5 points on the spread at +102. The Spartans come back as a -105 underdog, while the total currently sits at 144.5 points at FanDuel.

The implied win probability of Illinois over Michigan State at -114 is 53.3%. You’d need to wager $114 on the favorites to win $100, while a $105 bet on the underdogs clears $100. The line has switched as of a day ago, when the Spartans were the favored team by 1.5 points.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10:15 a.m. ET on Feb. 7.

Illinois vs Michigan State Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

Best Bet: Illinois Moneyline (-105) at DraftKings

I’m going with Illinois to take this one, though I’m dismayed that the line has shifted from +100 to -105. On the campaign, they’re 11-1 in Big Ten conference play, compared to Michigan State that is 9-and-3. The Fighting Illini also come in extremely hot, having won twelve straight, while their counterparts have dropped two in a row.

ISU is also battle tested, having won two straight road affairs against top-five opponents in #4 Purdue (88-82) and #5 Nebraska (78-69).

In the NCAA Tournament champion odds, the Fighting Illini are among the favorites at +2500 despite opening the season at +6000, while Michigan State has drifted out to +5000 after beginning the campaign +3000.

It’ll be a difficult battle with MSU incredibly very strong on the defensive side of the ball, ranked inside the top-five in the nation (#4 according to KenPom), and allowing the second fewest points per game in the conference (64.9). Sophomore guard Jeremy Fears Jr. has been outstanding, pacing the squad with 14.7 points per game, and 8.9 assists per outing, which is tied for most in the country with Purdue’s Braden Smith.

ISU freshman guard Keaton Wagler leads their unit with 17.9 PPG, averaging 20.5 during the impressive twelve game run. He posted a phenomenal 46 points against the Boilermakers four outings ago. It was the most ever scored by an opponent at Purdue, the most points all-time by an Illinois freshman and it set a school record with nine 3-pointers.

Of concern with the Spartans in their mini two game skid was a loss to Minnesota Wednesday, which was the Golden Gophers first victory in eight duels.

Illinois vs Michigan State Recent H2H History

Fighting Illini vs Spartans Public-Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting splits show a pretty even distribution on both teams to emerge with a victory Saturday night.

Moneyline: MSU is attracting 53% of all moneyline bets. However, ISU accounts for 75% of the money wagered, indicating that bettors still believe the favored squad will get the W.

Spread: The public’s faith on the point spread points to the favored Fighting Illini. A strong majority of bettors (71%) are laying the points with Illinois, along with 75% of ATS handle.

Total: The over/under is seeing a ton of wagers on over 144.5 points being accumulated. The Over is drawing 79% of the bets and 84% of the money, suggesting a public lean towards a higher-scoring game than the 144.5 total.

Illinois vs Michigan State Statistical Breakdown

Illinois is stronger than their adversaries in plenty of categories, namely #8 in their RPI ranking and a tougher strength of schedule. Against top-25 teams, the Fighting Illini are 5-3, while the Spartans are .500 at 3-3. Though Illinois does boast the better offense, Michigan State is very stingy on defense, with the fourth best D in the country, according to KenPom.

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