Iowa St vs Baylor Picks & Best Bets for Jan 7

• 14-0 Iowa State is a 4.5-point road favorite at Baylor
• Our deep dive shows Iowa State’s superior efficiency on both ends creates clear betting value
• While 88% of bettors hammer the under, offensive firepower suggests this game soars over 155.5 points

It’s fair to wonder whether Iowa State truly is deserving of its No. 3 ranking.

The Cyclones are 14-0, but they squeaked past St. John’s 83-82 in a November event in Las Vegas. Only one other game thus far has resembled anything more than a pop quiz.

It’s worth noting, however, that Iowa State pounded then-No. 1 Purdue 81-58. That win impressed AP voters, but the computers aren’t quite sold.

Iowa State’s RPI is just a modest No. 25 entering its Wednesday night trip to Baylor (8 pm, ET, Peacock). The Cyclones’ NET ranking, however, is No. 3, on the strength of a 3-0 record vs. Quad 1 opponents.

This matchup presents compelling betting angles with Iowa State installed as road chalk against a Baylor team that boasts explosive scoring potential. The Cyclones’ balanced attack features sharpshooting forward Milan Momcilovic (18.5 PPG) and versatile playmaker Joshua Jefferson (17.7 PPG, 7.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists). Baylor counters with dynamic scorers Cameron Carr (21 PPG) and Tounde Yessoufou (18.6), setting up what should be an entertaining Big 12 clash.

Iowa State vs Baylor Betting Predictions: Best Bets and Value Props

Baylor possesses the offensive weapons to keep pace, but Iowa State’s superior balance and defensive discipline create a decisive advantage that should play out Wednesday night.

The Cyclones aren’t merely undefeated – they’re methodically dismantling opponents with surgical precision. Their offensive arsenal runs five-deep in double-digit scorers, spearheaded by Milan Momcilovic’s scorching 18.5 points per game while connecting on a Big 12-leading 56.3% from three-point territory. The supporting cast features do-everything forward Joshua Jefferson (17.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 5.4 APG) and crafty point guard Tamin Lipsey (14.0 PPG, 5.9 APG), creating matchup nightmares across multiple positions.

Baylor brings legitimate firepower through Cameron Carr (21.0 PPG) and Tounde Yessoufou (18.6 PPG), but Iowa State’s defensive infrastructure is built to neutralize explosive individual performances. Lipsey ranks second in the Big 12 with 2.36 steals per game, anchoring a unit that thrives on creating transition opportunities. The Bears’ defensive vulnerabilities will be exposed against Momcilovic’s elite 0.759 True Shooting Percentage and Iowa State’s movement-heavy offensive system.

Historical trends favor the road favorite in this spot. Historical trends favor the road favorite in this spot., while Historical trends favor the road favorite in this spot. The line movement from an opening -5.5 to the current -4.5 provides additional value on the superior squad.

Best bet: Iowa State -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Over/Under: The consensus Over/Under is 155.5 points. Our AI tools predict the teams will combine to surpass that total. I’m not as convinced, primarily because of how well Iowa State plays defense. Baylor has run it up against inferior teams. I don’t believe Baylor will be able to score enough to assist in the over — even though both teams prefer to play with pace. We are noting the Over/Under in case you are interested, but we’re not making a play.

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Public Betting Breakdown

The college basketball betting public has spoken decisively in favor of the undefeated Cyclones, creating interesting contrarian opportunities on both the total and potential sharp money situations worth monitoring.

Spread Analysis: Public sentiment heavily favors Iowa State’s road success, with 72.73% of all spread tickets backing the Cyclones to cover -4.5. More tellingly, 64.26% of the actual money wagered supports Iowa State, indicating both recreational and more serious bettors align on this side. Baylor attracts just 27.27% of tickets but commands 35.74% of the handle, suggesting some larger wagers believe in the home underdog’s upset potential.

Moneyline Analysis: The disparity becomes even more pronounced on the moneyline, where an overwhelming 91.96% of tickets support Iowa State to maintain their perfect record. This represents 78.7% of total money wagered, demonstrating rare consensus across all betting demographics. Baylor receives minimal support with only 8.04% of bets and 21.3% of the money, making them a significant contrarian longshot.

Total Analysis: Here’s where our analysis sharply diverges from public opinion. While we project a high-scoring affair exceeding 155.5 points, bettors are massively backing the under with 87.73% of tickets and 89.2% of the money. This overwhelming lean toward defensive grinding creates a classic fade-the-public scenario for those recognizing the offensive talent on display.

Statistical Showdown: Iowa State’s Efficiency Edge

The key to these numbers? Baylor’s schedule has been much more conducive to stat-padding. Iowa State’s statistical profile demonstrates why it has earned their undefeated status and road favorite designation.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Baylor Bears Odds

Oddsmakers are showing respect for Iowa State’s undefeated record and Baylor’s home court potential.

• Moneyline: Iowa State (-212) | Baylor (+175)
• Spread: Iowa State -4.5 (-110) | Baylor +4.5 (-110)
• Total: Over/Under 155.5 (O: -108, U: -112)

Odds as of January 7, 2026, from consensus data.

The current pricing reflects measured confidence in Iowa State’s road success without suggesting a guaranteed blowout. Notable line movement from the opening -5.5 to today’s -4.5 indicates some market correction toward Baylor’s home court advantage and potential upset ability. Similarly, the total has dropped significantly from an opening 158.5 to the current 155.5, aligning with heavy public action on the under.

Based on current moneyline odds, Iowa State carries a 67.95% implied probability of victory, while Baylor holds a 36.36% chance of pulling the home upset. After removing sportsbook vig, the normalized probabilities calculate to approximately 65.1% for Iowa State and 34.9% for Baylor.

For betting value calculation, a successful $20 wager on Iowa State (-212) returns a profit of $9.43, while backing the underdog Baylor Bears (+175) with $20 would yield a $35.00 profit, highlighting the risk-reward dynamic of this conference matchup.