Iowa State vs Kansas Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits (Jan 13)

• Iowa State is 16-0, but our analysis backs Kansas +3.5 as a rare home underdog
• The betting public is pounding the Under (85% of bets)
• Our pick is for the Under 151.5, even though Iowa State will push the pace

No. 2 Iowa State is 16-0 with a blowout win over then-No. 1 Purdue … and still there are questions?

Kansas faces questions as well. Such as: What has happened to the perennial Final Four contender?

These Jayhawks are 11-5 and unranked in this week’s AP Top 25. This is the second consecutive season that the Jayhawks have fallen out of a Top 25 ranking. The last time that happened? Try the 1999-2000 seasons. From 2010-2020, the Jayhawks appeared in every AP Top 25 poll. They missed one week in the 2021 season, then started another weekly streak that ended last year.

So, yes, it raises questions any time the Jayhawks aren’t ranked.

Can they find their way tonight, at home, and spoil Iowa State’s perfect season? Tip-off is 9 pm, ET (ESPN).

For bettors, Iowa State presents a compelling case as a road favorite looking to make a statement.

This preview will dive into the odds, trends, and key matchups to find the best betting value.

Iowa State vs Kansas Pick and Prediction

An undefeated road favorite takes on a desperate, blue-blood home underdog. Sounds like a good way to spend a Tuesday night in Lawrence, Kansas. Iowa State’s 16-game winning streak is impressive, but winning at Allen Fieldhouse is a monumental task. Kansas is in a must-win situation after a 1-2 start in conference play, and getting points at home is a rare opportunity for bettors.

The Jayhawks have the interior presence to disrupt the Cyclones’ flow, led by forward Flory Bidunga. He’s a force in the paint, averaging 8.94 rebounds and 2.38 blocks per game, the second-highest mark in the Big 12. He will be crucial in neutralizing Iowa State forwards Blake Buchanan and Joshua Jefferson.

While the Cyclones boast a balanced and potent attack, with Milan Momcilovic (17.6 ppg) and Joshua Jefferson (17.7 ppg) leading the charge, the pressure of maintaining a perfect record on the road in this environment could lead to a tighter contest than the odds suggest. Kansas is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog. Expect a hostile crowd to fuel the Jayhawks, helping them keep this game within a single possession.

Best Bet: Kansas +3.5 (-110) via Bet365 on January 13

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Over/Under Prediction

The opening total for this game sat at 143.5 and has been bet up a full five points, a significant move that signals the market anticipates a high-scoring affair. It’s easy to see why. Iowa State features one of the most efficient shooters in the country in Milan Momcilovic, who is connecting on an incredible 55% of his three-point attempts while averaging 17.6 points per game. The Cyclones have another reliable scorer in Joshua Jefferson, who averages 17.7 points and 5.2 assists.

Kansas can also fill it up. Guard Tre White is an aggressive scorer, putting up 15.2 points per contest and shooting an excellent 84.1% from the free-throw line. Bidunga provides an incredibly efficient interior scoring option for the Jayhawks. Although Big 12 matchups can often turn into defensive struggles, the offensive talent on both rosters is too good to ignore. The Over is 8-3 in Kansas’s last 11 games following a conference loss. Look for both teams to push the pace and exceed this total.

Best Bet: Under 151.5 (-110) via BetMGM on January 13

It’s worth noting that total has increased from 148.5 to 151.5 at some books.

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Public Betting Analysis Iowa State vs Kansas

The college basketball betting public is flocking to support the undefeated Iowa State Cyclones. However, a deeper look at the betting splits reveals a potential opportunity for contrarian bettors.

Spread and Moneyline: Public Backs the Cyclones

When it comes to the point spread, the public is overwhelmingly backing Iowa State. An impressive 71.43% of all bets are on the Cyclones to cover as road favorites. The money largely concurs, with 68.83% of the handle also landing on Iowa State. This indicates that most bettors are confident the Cyclones will continue their dominant run.

The moneyline market shows even greater public confidence in an outright Iowa State victory. A massive 83.19% of moneyline tickets are on the Cyclones, with the handle not far behind at 77.17%. Conversely, only 16.81% of bettors are taking a chance on a Kansas upset at home. This creates a classic “fade the public” scenario for our pick, as we are backing the home underdog Jayhawks (+3.5) against the popular consensus.

Total: A Strong Lean on the Under

The most significant consensus from the betting public is on the game total. A staggering 85.08% of all bets have been placed on the consensus Under 148.5, and the money is even more committed, with 86.1% of the stake backing a lower-scoring game. The public is anticipating a defensive battle typical of Big 12 play. The line has moved, though, from 148.5 to as high as 152.5 at some books.

Iowa State vs Kansas Statistical Breakdown

Iowa State has posted gaudy offensive numbers against a softer schedule, while Kansas has battled through a tougher slate.

All stats are for the 2025 regular season.

Analysis: Battle-Tested vs. Undefeated

On the surface, Iowa State appears to have a significant edge, particularly on offense.

However, the numbers also reveal a clear path to victory for Kansas, which aligns with our betting predictions. The most telling statistic is the Strength of Schedule, where the Jayhawks (0.6428) have faced a significantly tougher road than Iowa State (0.5306). While the Cyclones are 1-0 against the RPI Top 25, Kansas’ 11-5 record is more battle-tested, having played four games against top-tier opponents.

The most significant mismatch lies in the paint. This is where forward Flory Bidunga becomes the game’s ultimate X-factor. He contributes a massive 2.38 blocks and 8.94 rebounds per contest, leading a defensive front that can disrupt the Cyclones’ offensive flow.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Kansas Jayhawks Odds

The betting market has installed the undefeated Iowa State Cyclones as the road favorite against Kansas in this marquee Big 12 matchup. The Jayhawks find themselves in the rare position of being a home underdog, offering intriguing value for bettors.

• Moneyline: Iowa State (-185) | Kansas (+153)
• Spread: Iowa State -3.5 (-116) | Kansas +3.5 (-104)
• Total: Over 148.5 (-109) | Under 148.5 (-111)

Odds as of January 13 from consensus.

The current odds reflect Iowa State’s perfect record, pricing them as -185 favorites to win the game outright. The -3.5 point spread suggests that while the Cyclones are expected to win, the game is projected to be decided by a narrow margin. The most significant line movement has occurred on the total, which opened at 143.5 and has been bet up a full five points to 148.5, signaling an expectation of offensive firepower from both teams.

Based on the consensus moneyline odds, the market implies a 62.15% probability of an Iowa State victory after removing the bookmaker’s vig. The chances of a Kansas upset at home are priced at 39.48%. For those looking to back the underdog, a successful $10 wager on Kansas to win would net a profit of $15.30. Conversely, a winning $10 bet on the favored Cyclones would return a profit of $5.41.