Kalshi March Madness Upset Odds for Friday: Which Teams Are Going Down?

• Prediction Market Kalshi is offering a 37% chance that an upset with a seed margin of least 9 will occur Friday at March Madness
• The two best contenders are Hofstra and Cal Baptist per my analysis
• See below for Kalshi’s March Madness upset odds for Friday, plus my picks for which teams are going down

The first day and a half at the NCAA Tournament has yet to provide a truly shocking upset. Sure, High Point took down Wisconsin in the West Region’s 12 vs 5 matchup, but the Panthers were one of the trendiest sleepers in the printable March Madness bracket.

Well, predictions markets expect that to change on Friday. They’re offering a 37% chance that an upset will occur with a seed discrepancy of at least 9 positions. In traditional sports betting terms, that equates to +170 odds. There’s a couple of contenders that fit the bill, so keep reading for Kalshi’s March Madness upset odds, plus my picks for which teams are going down.

March Madness Upset Odds for Friday

Prediction Markets

Biggest upset in March Madness Tournament

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Biggest Upset Seed Margin: 5+

99%

Biggest Upset Seed Margin: 7+

99%

Biggest Upset Seed Margin: 9+

37%

Biggest Upset Seed Margin: 11+

14%

Biggest Upset Seed Margin: 13+

8%

Biggest Upset Seed Margin: 15

3%

Predict

At the time of writing, prediction markets are even more convinced that an upset with a seed discrepancy of 7 or more will happen on Friday. They make the probability of that happening 99%, even though it occurred just once the day before.

Only seeds listed 13 or lower qualify for a seed discrepancy of 9+, and I’m looking to target both Hofstra over Alabama and Cal Baptist over Kansas in that market.

KALSHI TRADING

Offer

T&Cs

Trade at Kalshi & Get a $10 bonus when you sign up today!

Must be 18+ years or older & residing in the United States. Other Terms & Conditions may apply.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME

CODE: DIME

SIGNUP TODAY

GET A $10
BONUS

GET OFFER

March Madness Upset Picks

I’ll keep the analysis on Hofstra short, since their game is about to tip at the time of writing. The Pride feature elite guard play, and have already scored victories this season over high-major programs Syracuse and Pittsburgh. They were the best CAA team in KenPom’s rankings all season, and have won 11 of their last 12.

The Tide meanwhile, have lost two of three and are absent their second leading scorer Aden Holloway. They rank outside the top-65 in scoring defense, and allow opponents to grab 32% of their misses. Those are not the metrics of a March Madness championship odds contender.

Furthermore, Alabama is incredibly reliant on long range shooting, and a poor night from beyond the arc leaves them incredibly vulnerable to an upset. Contrast that with Hofstra, who are balanced offensively, and can score inside and out. The Pride will slow this game down and operate almost exclusively in the half court, which is the exact style of game the Tide don’ want to play.

Moving over to Cal Baptist now, whose recipe for winning is simple. Feed the ball to Dominque Daniels Jr., crash the offensive glass, and make Darryn Peterson’s life miserable.

Daniels Jr. enters play averaging 23 points per game, and has led the Lancers to 15 wins in their last 17 games. Cal Baptist averages nearly 40 rebounds per outing, and their ability to generate second chance points can keep them alive against anybody.

As for Peterson, the Jayhawks rely heavily on him to provide offense. Peterson has a knack for leaving games early, so his ability to stay on the court for the entire game and out of the March Madness injuries is paramount to Kansas’ success.

There’s been a weird mood around the Jayhawks all season, and their recent form suggests they may be ripe to be upset. They shot just 24% en route to a blowout loss in the Big 12 Tournament to Houston, and enter play having lost three of five overall, scoring less than 62 points in each of those defeats. If they turn in a performance like that tonight, the Lancers will not only cover the 10.5 point spread in the college basketball odds, they’ll win ourtight.