#4 Kansas vs #13 Cal Baptist Picks, Best Bets & Splits

• Kansas faces Cal Baptist Lancers in a March Madness mismatch on Friday
• A stark disparity in strength of schedule points toward a Kansas blowout
• Check out Kansas vs Cal Baptist best bets and picks for March 20th

Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || SPLITS

The postseason is officially here, and the #4 Kansas Jayhawks (23-10, 20-13 ATS) are set to clash with the No. 13 seed California Baptist Lancers (25-8, 19-14 ATS) at Viejas Arena in San Diego.

Tipping off at 6:45 pm PT/9:45 pm ET on Friday, March 20 , this matchup will be broadcast nationally on CBS and Paramount+.

From a betting perspective, this game features a power-conference favorite taking on a live mid-major underdog. Winners of six straight, California Baptist arrives with massive momentum after securing the WAC championship. The Lancers will lean heavily on star guard Dominique Daniels Jr, who averages over 23 points per game and possesses the dynamic shot-creation needed to challenge elite defenses.

California Baptist vs Kansas Odds

Prediction Markets

KU vs Cal Bapt Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Kansas

90%

Kansas -13.5

53%

Un 138.5

52%

Ov 138.5

49%

Cal Baptist +13.5

48%

Cal Baptist

11%

Predict

Kansas is an overwhelming 13.5-point favorite at Kalshi and 14 points at most traditional sportsbooks. The game total is set at 138.5 points, suggesting a moderately-paced game rather than a track meet.

On the moneyline, Kansas is trading at 90¢ to win (equal to a -900 moneyline price at a sportsbook). Cal Baptist is trading at 11¢ (equal to +809 odds).

Odds as of March 20. If you haven’t already signed-up, claim SBD’s Kalshi referral code.

Kansas vs Cal Baptist ATS Pick: KU -13.5 (53¢ at Kalshi)

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When evaluating how these two programs match up, the disparity in raw talent and defensive pressure immediately stands out. I already put Kansas through to the Final Four in my expert March Madness bracket. They’ve been hampered by injuries all season but they are that talented.

California Baptist has shown they can run up the score on lesser opponents, but they have consistently struggled when forced into half-court grinds away from their home floor. The Lancers are just 2-5 (28.6%) straight-up in away or neutral matchups when scoring 76 points or fewer this season.

With KU head coach Bill Self poised to have his defense dictate the tempo and limit easy perimeter looks for Daniels Jr, laying the points with the favorite is the optimal angle.

Kansas is conditioned to face top-tier athleticism and possesses a highly profitable 71.4% win rate (5-2) on neutral floors this year. With future top-three pick Darryn Peterson (19.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.7 APG) healthy and Flory Bidunga (13.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG) poised to dominate the paint, the Jayhawks will have massive advantages all over the court and eventually pull away.

Kansas vs Cal Baptist O/U Pick: Over 137.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Early sharp action pushed the number up from an opening line of 136.5 and it’s as high as 138.5 at most books, but FanDuel still has 137.5 and I am backing the over. While Cal Baptist can occasionally get bogged down, their upside is undeniable when they find their rhythm.

Even if they fall short of a massive upset, their willingness to play aggressively in trailing scripts should generate enough late-game possessions and trips to the foul line to push this past the number.

Kansas vs Cal Baptist H2H Team Stats

The most glaring takeaway from the statistical comparison is the massive discrepancy in Strength of Schedule (SOS). Kansas has waded through an absolute gauntlet this season, carrying an elite 0.5964 SOS metric while facing opponents that collectively win at a 0.6139 clip (OWP).

Kansas has squared off against Top-25 opponents 11 times this year. They are battle-tested and highly successful when isolated on neutral floors.

Kansas vs California Baptist Betting Splits

Spread Splits

When looking at the spread market, bettors are overwhelmingly flocking to the underdog. A staggering 83.57% of the tickets and 84.66% of the money are backing California Baptist to keep things close and cover the number.

Because both the ticket count and the more crucial money percentage are heavily aligned on California Baptist, there is no classic sharp versus public divide to note here – which requires a 60% or greater split in opposite directions.

However, this heavy public lean contrasts directly with my official prediction. Line movement and public money do not equal value. While the masses are happily grabbing the points with the live mid-major underdog, my data breakdown dictates playing contrarian and laying the points with Kansas to establish dominance on a neutral floor.

Moneyline Splits

Even though the public is eager to back California Baptist on the spread, they aren’t brave enough to call for the outright upset. The moneyline market is dominated by Kansas in Friday’s college basketball public betting splits; the Jayhawks are commanding 92.25% of the tickets and 77.30% of the overall money.

California Baptist has attracted just 7.75% of the tickets and a modest 22.70% of the handle. Just like the spread, the ticket volume and the money agree here, confirming that the betting public views Kansas advancing straight-up as a foregone conclusion.

Game-Total Splits

Unlike my contrarian stance on the spread, I am in lockstep with the betting public when it comes to the game total. Currently, the Over is drawing the vast majority of the action, accounting for 75.71% of the tickets and 74.85% of the money. The Under is seeing minimal interest, capturing just 24.29% of the bets and 25.15% of the handle. With the highly valuable money metric aligned on a higher-scoring affair, the betting market fully supports my prediction of the Over.

Check out SBD’s comprehensive March Madness coverage, including:

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• NCAA Tournament Odds for All First Round Games – Opening Spreads, Totals, Moneylines