Kansas vs Texas Tech Picks & Predictions (Feb 2)

• Road value dominates as Kansas looks to extend its five-game winning streak
• Defensive metrics suggest the smart money is on the Under 154.5
• Our analysis reveals the best bets for Kansas at Texas Tech

A top-20 showdown takes center stage tonight when No. 11 Kansas visits No. 13 Texas Tech. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET (ESPN).

Both teams are in the mix in a top-heavy Big 12 race.

Kansas (16-5, 6-2 Big 12) has won five in a row — a streak highlight by wins over then-No. 2 Iowa State and then-No. 13 BYU. Those wins, however, were at home.

Different is a different deal. Texas Tech (16-5, 6-2 Big 12) also reeled off five wins in a row — a streak highlighted by wins over then-No. 11 BYU and then-No. 6 Houston — before crashing at UCF on Saturday. The Red Raiders will look to rebound tonight while also remaining perfect at home (11-0).

The betting market has installed Texas Tech as a home favorite, but the analytical profile suggests this contest is closer to a coin flip than the 4.5-point spread implies.

Kansas vs Texas Tech Best Bets & Expert Predictions

The oddsmakers at DraftKings have priced the home-court advantage significantly, making Texas Tech a multi-possession favorite. However, when digging into the advanced metrics of two top-15 teams with equal records, the value leans toward the squad playing their best basketball of the season.

Spread Pick: Kansas Jayhawks +4.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Texas Tech is perfect at home, but backing red-hot Kansas +4.5 offers the superior statistical edge. The Jayhawks are playing with a defensive cohesiveness that travels well, evidenced by its current five-game win streak.

The critical variable in this handicap is the interior warfare. Texas Tech’s offense flows through JT Toppin, a volume scorer averaging 22.4 points and 10.85 rebounds per game. While Toppin is a force, Kansas counters with Flory Bidunga, the conference’s premier rim protector. Bidunga leads the Big 12 with 2.67 blocks per game and alters countless other shots without fouling (averaging just 2.19 fouls).

Offensively, Kansas has found a rhythm in the half-court, with Bryson Tiller coming off a 21-point performance and Tre White adding consistent perimeter scoring. In a game where possessions will be valued like red-zone trips in football, catching 4.5 points with a team that defends the paint this effectively is a high-value position.

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Total Prediction: Under 154.5 (-109) at BetMGM

The market has set this total at 154.5, and BetMGM currently offers the best value for the Under at -109. While Texas Tech’s 84.0 PPG average is impressive, Big 12 conference clashes often devolve into physical, defensive grinds, making the Under the sharp play.

Kansas boasts a scoring defense allowing just 68.0 points per contest. Its ability to dictate tempo will be key. The Jayhawks operate efficiently but deliberately, feeding Bidunga (66.8% FG) inside and limiting transition opportunities. Furthermore, Tech’s perimeter threat, Christian Anderson (19.6 PPG), faces a stout perimeter defense marshaled by Melvin Council Jr. If Kansas can chase Anderson off the three-point line and force Tech into contested two-point jumpers, this game will struggle to clear the 150 mark.

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Public Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting sentiment for Monday night reveals a classic “Pros vs. Joes” divide in the spread market, highlighting where the sharp money is positioning itself.

Spread Trends

The ticket count favors the road underdog, with Kansas attracting 58.14% of the spread bets. The public loves backing a ranked team catching points. However, the handle tells a different story: Texas Tech is commanding 58.93% of the money percentage. This indicates that larger, more sophisticated wagers are backing the Red Raiders to cover at home, likely respecting the 11-0 home record more than recent form.

Moneyline Action

The moneyline market shows extreme public confidence in the home team. Texas Tech is drawing 73.73% of the moneyline tickets, yet they only hold 56.1% of the money handle. This significant discrepancy suggests that while casual bettors are adding Tech to their parlays, sharp bettors see enough volatility in this matchup to shy away from laying the heavy juice on the favorite.

Total Betting

Action on the total is split nearly down the middle, with the Over taking 53.27% of tickets and 50.96% of the money. This equilibrium suggests the market has found an efficient number, though our analysis still identifies value on the defensive side of the ledger.

Kansas vs Texas Tech Key Stats

Who has the edge Monday night?

Flory Bidunga vs. JT Toppin in the paint will go a long way to deciding who wins tonight. Toppin (22.4 PPG, 10.85 RPG) is a double-double machine, but he faces his stiffest defensive test in Bidunga. Bidunga’s 66.8% field goal percentage and shot-blocking prowess (2.67 BPG) allow Kansas to play single coverage in the post, preventing Tech from generating open threes off double teams. If Bidunga stays out of foul trouble, the calculus shifts heavily in Kansas’s favor.

Kansas vs Texas Tech Odds

Below are the consensus odds for this Big 12 clash:

• Moneyline: Kansas (+172) | Texas Tech (-209)
• Spread: Kansas +4.5 (-110) | Texas Tech -4.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-109)

Odds as of February 02, 2026, at 12:47 PM UTC from DraftKings Sportsbook.

The market clearly respects the Tech’s home court, listing the Red Raiders as -209 favorites. The total of 154.5 is relatively high for a conference game involving Kansas, reflecting respect for Tech’s offensive output.

Implied Probabilities and Payouts

Stripping out the vigorish (vig) provides the true implied win probabilities:

• Texas Tech: 64.8% win probability
• Kansas: 35.2% win probability

For bettors looking to capitalize on these lines with a $20 wager:

• A $20 bet on Texas Tech (-209) to win outright returns $9.57 in profit ($29.57 total).
• A $20 bet on the underdog Kansas (+172) returns $34.40 in profit ($54.40 total).

Given the implied probability of just 35.2%, the Jayhawks offer substantial value for a team ranked just three spots lower in the AP Poll and riding a five-game win streak.