Kentucky vs St John’s Picks, Predictions & Odds (Dec 20)

• St. John’s enters as a 3.5-point favorite vs. Kentucky, with a superior No. 23 RPI ranking.
• Kentucky is 0-4 vs. top-25 AP opponents this season.
• Our analysis reveals why the Red Storm will cover the spread and why to bet over the lofty 155.5-point total.

Unranked and looking for a statement win, Kentucky faces AP No. 22 St. John’s on Saturday afternoon at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. Tip-off is 12:30 pm, ET, on CBS.

This is more than just another non-conference showdown: It’s a reunion as second-year Kentucky coach Mark Pope faces his former Kentucky coach, Rick Pitino. Together, Pope and Pitino guided Kentucky to the 1996 NCAA Tournament title.

The Red Storm (7-3) arrive as legitimate contenders riding a 3-game winning streak. All three of their losses have come against AP ranked teams. Kentucky is 7-4 — 0-4 against AP ranked teams. The Wildcats have a No. 127 RPI ranking.

St. John’s vs Kentucky Best Picks: Expert Analysis & Best Bets

The betting market has correctly identified St. John’s as the better team, but this neutral-site environment creates compelling angles for sharp bettors. Kentucky has the talent to compete, but its repeated struggles quality opposition raises questions about the Wildcats’ ceiling. St. John’s opened as 3.5-point favorites.

St. John’s showcases exceptional balance with four players averaging double-digit scoring. The dynamic frontcourt tandem of Bryce Hopkins (14.0 PPG) and Zuby Ejiofor (13.9 PPG) lead the way. Ejiofor represents the most significant mismatch in this contest. The junior center ranks 10th nationally with 2.8 blocks per game while anchoring the paint with 7.2 rebounds per contest. His rim protection likely will disrupt Kentucky’s leading scorer Otega Oweh (14.0 PPG) and force the Wildcats into uncomfortable perimeter-heavy possessions.

The historical context also favors laying the short number with St. John’s. The Red Storm are 6-2 ATS record in their past eight games as favorites of four points or fewer. Pitino’s squad has navigated a significantly tougher schedule (0.6519 SOS vs 0.5325) and emerged battle-hardened.

Best Bet: St. John’s -3.5 (-102) at DraftKings

There are also a couple other bets I like in this game.

Pick: Over 155.5 (-110)

Despite Ejiofor’s defensive prowess, this total represents solid value in an up-tempo neutral-site clash. Both offenses possess the firepower to light up the scoreboard. Four St. John’s players average 10+ points per game, including sharpshooting guard Oziyah Sellers (11.4 PPG, 43.5% from three) and explosive wing Ian Jackson (11.5 PPG). Kentucky counters with sharp-shooter Collin Chandler, who’s connecting on 41.1% of his three-point attempts while averaging 10.5 PPG.

Neutral-site games between major programs typically feature faster pace compared to hostile road environments. The trend data supports an offensive explosion, as the over has cashed in 7 of Kentucky’s past 10 neutral-court contests. Both teams rank in the top half nationally in scoring.

Same-Game Parlay:

• St. John’s Moneyline (-165)
• Over 155.5 Points (-111)
• Bryce Hopkins 10+ Points

This correlated parlay builds around a logical game script: St. John’s wins a high-scoring affair where their primary offensive weapon produces. Taking the moneyline provides cushion against a narrow victory that doesn’t cover the spread. Hopkins averages 14.0 PPG as the Red Storm’s most versatile scorer and should easily surpass the modest 10-point threshold.

Team Statistical Comparison and Key Matchup Advantages

The advanced metrics paint a clear picture of St. John’s superiority. While Kentucky boasts impressive raw numbers, the Red Storm have faced significantly tougher competition and proven more reliable against quality opponents. This experience gap becomes magnified in high-stakes neutral-site environments.

Analyzing the Critical Matchups

The statistical comparison reveals fascinating contrasts in team construction. Both squads shoot identical field goal percentages (47.8%), but St. John’s holds meaningful advantages in several key areas. The Red Storm generate significantly more defensive disruption, averaging 5.7 blocks per game (15th nationally) compared to Kentucky’s 4.4. This shot-blocking dominance, spearheaded by Ejiofor’s elite rim protection, could neutralize Kentucky’s interior attack.

St. John’s also forces more turnovers through steals (8.6 vs 7.7 per game), creating additional transition opportunities for their balanced scoring attack. However, Kentucky demonstrates superior ball security with an impressive 1.95 assist-to-turnover ratio compared to St. John’s concerning 1.28 mark. The Wildcats’ ability to protect possessions gives them a pathway to competitive play.

The most glaring disparity appears in strength of schedule and performance against elite competition. St. John’s faced a brutal 0.6519 schedule strength while Kentucky enjoyed a more manageable 0.5325 mark. More importantly, both teams struggled against top-25 RPI opponents, but Kentucky’s 0-3 record suggests they haven’t solved the puzzle of performing against quality opposition.

Ejiofor’s dominance creates the game’s most significant mismatch. His 13.9 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, combined with elite shot-blocking, should overwhelm Kentucky’s inexperienced frontcourt. This makes him an excellent candidate for player prop betting, particularly points plus rebounds combinations where his dual-threat capability shines.

St. John’s vs Kentucky Odds

DraftKings’ betting odds for reflect the market’s assessment of team quality:

• Moneyline: St. John’s -170 | Kentucky +142
• Point Spread: St. John’s -3.5 (-105) | Kentucky +3.5 (-115)
• Game Total: Over 155.5 (-110) | Under 155.5 (-110)

Odds as of December 20, 2025, from consensus sportsbooks and subject to change.

The betting market correctly identifies St. John’s as the stronger team, installing them as moderate 3.5-point favorites. The -170 moneyline price suggests oddsmakers view this as a clear-cut matchup, while the 155.5-point total anticipates an offensive showcase.

Based on the moneyline odds, the implied probability gives St. John’s a 62.9% chance of victory versus Kentucky’s 38.1%. After removing the sportsbook’s built-in advantage (vig), the normalized probabilities show St. John’s with a 59.7% chance to win compared to Kentucky’s 40.3%.

For moneyline betting considerations:

• A $20 wager on St. John’s (-170) returns $11.76 in profit for a total payout of $31.76
• A $20 wager on Kentucky (+142) returns $28.40 in profit for a total payout of $48.40

The spread and total both offer reasonable value based on our statistical analysis, making St. John’s -3.5 and the Over 155.5 our recommended plays for this CBS Sports Classic showdown.