Louisville vs Duke Expert Picks & Best Bets (Jan. 26)

• Duke is positioned to cover the -7.5 spread at Cameron Indoor Stadium
• Offensive firepower from Duke’s Cameron Boozer (23.7 PPG) and Louisville’s Ryan Conwell (19.5 PPG) should propel this contest Over 156.5 points
• Public money heavily backs Duke across all markets, with 95% of moneyline action and 70% of spread bets supporting the Blue Devils

No. 4 Duke welcomes No. 20 Louisville to Cameron Indoor Stadium tonight. Tip-off for the ACC collision is set for 7 pm, ET (ESPN).

Duke (18-1, 7-0 ACC) is a consensus 7.5-point favorite tonight — for good reason. The Blue Devils beat the Cardinals 84-73 at Louisville on Jan. 6. Duke freshman star Cameron Boozer scored 27 in that game.

Louisville (14-5, 4-3 ACC) has won two in a row and earlier this season beat then-No. 9 Kentucky and then-No. 22 Indiana. Both of those teams have since fallen out of the AP Top 25.

Can Louisville’s Ryan Conwell (19.5 points per game) and the Cards contain Boozer (ACC-best 23.7 ppg) and secure a signature victory?

We analyze the matchup and provide our expert betting advice.

Duke vs Louisville Expert Predictions & Best Bets

Point Spread Analysis: Duke -7.5 (-108) via FanDuel

Duke’s positioning as a 7.5-point home favorite accurately reflects the talent disparity between these programs. The Blue Devils are a legitimate national championship contender. Cameron Boozer is singularly sensational. He leads the ACC with 450 total points and is averaging 23.7 PPG while contributing 9.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists. Louisville has talent, but not like that.

The Cardinals’ vulnerability against elite competition becomes glaring when examining their 0-3 record versus current top-25 teams and 2-5 mark against top-50 opponents. Duke’s 8-1 record against top-50 competition demonstrates its ability to elevate its performance in marquee matchups. Isaiah Evans (14.4 PPG) and Patrick Ngongba II’s efficient interior presence complement Boozer’s versatility, creating multiple scoring threats for Louisville to contain.

Duke is 4-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, but our analysis projects the Blue Devils to cover the spread at home in front of the Cameron Crazies. Take Duke -7.5 (-108).

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Total Points: Over 156.5 (-115) via BetMGM

These teams combined for 157 points when they met earlier in January at Louisville. Both offenses possess the firepower to exceed this total, particularly with Duke’s home-court energy amplifying their already potent attack. Louisville actually outpaces Duke in scoring (87.8 PPG vs 85.7 PPG), led by Conwell’s 19.5 PPG and Mikel Brown Jr.’s 16.9 PPG contribution. Sananda Fru’s interior efficiency (78.6% on two-point attempts) and Isaac McKneely’s perimeter shooting (37.8% from three) provide Louisville with multiple offensive dimensions.

Take Over 156.5 (-115).

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Public Betting Patterns

The college basketball betting public has spoken decisively in favor of the home favorites, creating interesting market dynamics across all major wagering options for this ACC confrontation.

Moneyline sentiment overwhelmingly favors Duke, with 95.47% of all bets and 94.74% of total money backing the Blue Devils to win outright. This near-universal confidence reflects Duke’s national ranking and proven ability to handle business at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The alignment between bet count and money percentages indicates both casual and sharp bettors view this as a Duke victory.

The point spread market shows similar, though less extreme, support for the home team. Approximately 69.75% of bets and 65.32% of the money back Duke to cover the 7.5-point spread.

Total points betting reveals clear expectations for offensive fireworks, with 78.68% of individual tickets and 77.59% of the money supporting the Over 156.5. This public alignment with our expert prediction indicates widespread belief that both teams’ offensive weapons will produce a high-scoring affair.

The consistency between bet percentages and money percentages across all markets suggests no significant sharp versus public divergence, indicating professional and recreational bettors largely agree on this game’s likely outcomes.

Duke vs Louisville Team Stats

Who has the edge tonight at Cameron Indoor?

Duke vs Louisville Betting Odds

Current consensus betting odds for Monday’s ACC showdown reflect Duke’s overwhelming favoritism:

Odds as of January 26, 2026, 2:55 PM UTC from consensus sportsbooks.

These odds clearly establish Duke as heavy favorites, with their -357 moneyline requiring substantial investment for modest returns. When normalized to remove bookmaker vigorish, Duke holds approximately 74.59% implied probability to win, leaving Louisville with roughly 25.41% championship odds.

A $10 wager on Duke’s moneyline (-357) would yield $2.80 profit for a total return of $12.80, while the same $10 bet on Louisville (+276) would generate $27.60 profit for a $37.60 total return. This significant payout differential reflects the challenging nature of Louisville’s task at Cameron Indoor Stadium.When normalized to remove bookmaker vigorish, Duke holds approximately 74.59% implied probability to win, leaving Louisville with roughly 25.41% implied probability to win this game.