Louisville vs Duke Odds, Spread & Picks (Feb. 20)

• Contender Duke meets Louisville in an ACC game on Monday, February 20
• Duke is a 19-point home favorite over Louisville at Cameron Indoor Stadium
• Read below for Louisville vs Duke odds and prediction

Duke (19-8, 10-6 Atlantic Coast) is a 19-point favorite over Louisville in an ACC game at 7 pm ET Monday on ESPN. The Blue Devils have won five of their last seven games and have won all seven ACC home games.

Louisville (4-23, 2-14) has posted both of its conference wins in February, home games against Georgia Tech and Clemson. The Cardinals are 2-4 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last six.

Louisville vs Duke Odds

Odds from DraftKings on Feb. 19. Claim the DraftKings promo code.

Duke is a 19-point favorite against Louisville in a series that has been pretty balanced since the Cardinals joined the ACC in 2014. Duke is 7-5 SU and 6-5-1 ATS in the ACC series. The Blue Devils have won and covered the last two, both in Louisville, and the Cardinals have won and covered the two most recent games in Cameron in 2020 and 2021.

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Neither team has performed well against the spread. Duke is 10-17 ATS and Louisville is 11-16. Duke is 6-7 ATS at home but only 5-13 ATS after a win. The Cardinals are 4-4 ATS on the road.

Duke Adds a Helper

Freshman Dariq Whitehead has given the Blue Devils another offensive weapon since returning from a lower-leg injury that caused him to miss the previous four.  Whitehead, a 6’7″ wing, was the consensus top recruit in the national in the class of 2023. He had 14 points in a 77-55 victory at Syracuse — the program’s 700th win — the last time out Saturday and has 33 points while making 9 of 14 three-pointers in the last three games.

Dariq Whitehead is now shooting 50% (25/50) from three in conference play (10 games)

4/6 yesterday vs Syracuse — encouraging to see him shoot it this well through the injuries and more limited opportunities than he would've had. pic.twitter.com/unD9xA9iFs

— Keandre (Hoop Intellect) (@HoopIntelllect) February 19, 2023

Center Kyle Filipowski, another member of Duke’s No.-2 ranked freshman class, had his 12th double-double of the season with a 12/14 games at Syracuse and is leading the team in scoring (15.1 points and rebounding (9.2). Senior point Jeremy Roach (12.7 points, 3.0 assists) and two more freshman guard Tyrese Proctor (8.8 points, 3.0 assists) and forward Mark Mitchell (8.5 points, 4.2 rebounds) have started much of the season. The Blue Devils are 12-3 when Roach, Filipowski, Proctor, Mitchell and freshman post Dereck Lively II start. Lively II was the consensus No. 2 recruit.

The Blue Devils have had shooting issues, ranking in the lower half of Division I in shooting percentage (44.1) and three-point percentage (33.2) but compensate with a plus-6.4 rebound margin an an averaged of 11.9 offense boards per game. They have held 23 of their opponents below its season scoring average.

Louisville Shows a Glimmer

Louisville has found a big-time scorer in senior guard El Ellis, who has helped spark the Cardinals’ recent nudge toward respectability. Ellis had 28 points in an 83-73 home victory over Clemson that broke a four-game losing streak the last time out Saturday, a win he punctuated with a 360-degree dunk in the final seconds. It did not go over well, but it provided a bit of fun in coach Kenny Payne’s first season, one he has labeled “win or learn” instead of “win or lose.” Ellis (18.0 points, 4.6 assists) scored a career-high 33 points in a 93-85 loss at Miami on Feb. 11 and has had three three-pointers in each of the last three games.

https://twitter.com/the363project/status/1627170578300866560

In between Ellis’ two big games, the Cardinals played No. 7 Virginia into the final five seconds before missing a hurried three point attempt a 61-58 home loss. Junior forward JJ Traynor had a career-high 16 points and added nine rebounds against Clemson, adding another scorer on a team that shoots only 42.1 percent from the field, 309th in Division I. Holdover Jae’lyn Withers (9.6 points, 5.3 rebounds) and freshman guard Mike James (9.5 points) are the only other Cardinals averaging more than eight points per game.

Louisville vs Duke Prediction

Like more than a few public teams, the Blue Devils usually win but can be pressed to cover an inflated number. Since beating Iowa 74-62 as a one-point  favorite in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 6, Duke is 4-12 against the number, two of those covers coming at home. Louisville appears to have figured out at least one thing … how to keep things interesting. Catching Duke after it won in a rout is not a bad thing. The Cardinals will keep it close enough.

• Pick: Louisville +19 (-110)
• Season CBK: 40-22 ATS