Louisville Cardinals vs Tennessee Volunteers Picks: Expert Predictions for ESPN Showdown

• The #11 Louisville Cardinals visit the #20 Tennessee Volunteers on Tuesday night in Knoxville
• The Vols have lost three straight but remain a perfect 5-0 at home
• See my favorite Louisville vs Tennessee picks and props to target, along with the latest odds and betting splits

A captivating non-conference battle highlights tonight’s college basketball slate as the No. 11 Louisville Cardinals (9-1, 1-1 away, 7-3 ATS, 6-4 O/U) venture into hostile territory to face the No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers (7-3, 5-0 home, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 O/U) in an interconference showdown at Thompson-Boling Arena at 7:00 pm ET. ESPN will carry the national broadcast.

Louisville enters as a slight road underdog against a Tennessee squad that’s been dominant on its home court. The Cardinals’ high-octane offense, led by dynamic guard Ryan Conwell (19.4 PPG, 3.7 3PM), will clash with Tennessee’s physical style anchored by playmaker Ja’Kobi Gillespie (17.3 PPG, 5.4 APG) and rebounding force Nate Ament (16.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG).

Below, I will set out my top Louisville vs Tennessee picks and predictions, plus the latest LOU vs TEN odds and betting splits.

Louisville vs Tennessee Picks & Best Bets

Moneyline Pick: Tennessee Volunteers (-135) at DraftKings

The Cardinals arrive with a 9-1 record, riding back-to-back wins against quality competition: 87-78 vs Indiana (neutral) and 99-73 vs Memphis (home). Meanwhile, the Volunteers have lost three in a row straight-up, all as betting favorites: 81-76 vs Kansas (neutral), 62-60 vs Syracuse (away), and 75-62 vs Illinois (neutral).

This contest embodies a classic betting conundrum: backing the statistically superior team on paper versus trusting a desperate home squad with a strong track record in their own arena.

While Louisville brings the superior record and more explosive offensive metrics, Tennessee’s perfect 5-0 home record creates compelling value.

The Volunteers have demonstrated remarkable resilience at Thompson-Boling Arena, where the crowd’s energy and familiar surroundings have translated into unblemished success. Louisville is just 1-1 on the road, beating Cincinnati (rated 82nd at KenPom) while losing to Arkansas (rated 25th at KenPom). Tuesday will be the most-hostile environment yet.

Tennessee’s desperation factor cannot be understated – three consecutive losses have created a must-win mentality that often produces inspired performances from home underdogs. Think NBA teams coming home down 0-2 in playoff series.

Game-Total Pick: Over 157.5 (-115) at DraftKings

The 157.5-point total is conservative given both teams’ offensive capabilities and Louisville’s pace preference (39th-fastest tempo in DI). Louisville’s offense operates at elite efficiency, averaging 94.3 points per game behind Ryan Conwell’s perimeter excellence (3.7 made threes on 8.8 attempts) and point guard Mikel Brown Jr’s playmaking (16.6 PPG, 5.1 APG). The Cardinals’ four double-digit scorers have the team rated second in the country in ORtg at KenPom.

Tennessee counters with their own potent offensive duo in Gillespie and Ament, who combine to average 33.6 points per game. While Ament’s shooting efficiency (37.4% FG) creates some concern, the pace of play favors the over, as Louisville’s transition game and three-point volume (35.2 attempts per game) should create a fast-tempo environment that benefits total scoring.

Player-Prop Pick: Ryan Conwell Over 2.5 Threes (-165) at BetMGM

Conwell represents the most reliable player prop opportunity, with his three-point production offering consistent value. His 3.7 made threes per game on 42.0% shooting from beyond the arc establishes him as one of college basketball’s premier long-range threats. The Cardinals’ offensive system is designed to create open looks for their sharpshooters, and Conwell’s green-light mentality makes him a volume play regardless of game flow.

Tennessee has an elite defense that rates 13th in the country in DRtg but it’s more susceptible from the perimeter (53rd in defensive three-point percentage) than the interior (24th in defensive two-point percentage). Even if Louisville faces early adversity, Conwell’s shot attempts should remain consistent as the team’s primary offensive weapon.

Louisville vs Tennessee Betting Lines

On the moneyline, Tennessee is a market-best -135 at DraftKings; Louisville is +120 at bet365. BetRivers has the best ATS price for Tennessee bettors (-1.5 at -122), while FanDuel has the best ATS price for Louisville bettors (+2.5 at -110).

The total ranges from 157.5 at DraftKings to 159.0 at BetRivers.

The line movement has been pretty extreme. Louisville actually opened as a 1.5-point road favorite in the college basketball odds before the line swung way across zero. The total appears to be inching its way up after opening at 157.5.

Odds and commentary as of 12:05 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the odds shift before tip-off.

LOU vs TEN Public-Betting Patterns

Moneyline: Both the ticket and handle distribution show a modest lean toward Tennessee (52% of bets and 56% of handle) in Tuesday’s college basketball public betting splits.

Spread: The spread action leans slightly toward Louisville, with 55% of bets and 68% of money on Louisville to cover.

Total: The game-total betting shows strong consensus on the under, with 78% of bets and 79% of handle.

Louisville vs Tennessee Statistical Comparison

The numbers paint a picture of contrasting styles, with Louisville’s explosive offense facing Tennessee’s grittier, more physical approach that thrives in familiar surroundings.