March Madness A.I. Predictions for Every First Round Game

Welcome to the madness. With the printable March Madness bracket posted and Round of 64 odds up, I have utilized our proprietary A.I. model to handicap every first-round game.

Below is our A.I. model’s complete ATS and O/U pick for every First Four and Round of 64 game. (First Four games are marked with an asterisk.) Once more books have posted first-round odds, I will line shop every pick and set out the sportsbook or prediction market with the best price.

March Madness A.I. Picks: First Round

Looking at the board, our A.I. model is taking a contrarian approach on many of the massive spreads, siding with underdogs in 19 of 31 ATS picks. Conference tournament champions like McNeese (three-peat Southland champs), Kennesaw State, and Northern Iowa are battle-tested and playing with house money, making them dangerous to lay big numbers against.

On the totals side, the model leans Under in the majority of games, reflecting the tighter defensive intensity typical of tournament play, but targets Overs in high-tempo matchups like Saint Louis vs Georgia (170), South Florida vs Louisville (165.5), and Miami (OH) vs SMU (164.5).

When I asked the A.I. to further trim the picks to its five best bets, it provided the following list.

A.I. Best Bets for Round of 64

1. Hofstra vs Alabama

• The Pick: Alabama -14 (-110)
• A.I. Justification: “Oddsmakers expect plenty of scoring with a 161.5 total, but Alabama’s ability to dictate the pace makes them dangerous to fade. Boasting a dominant 74.1% win rate (23-8), Alabama controls the game script beautifully. Laying 14 points is a hefty handle, but the Tide are projected to comfortably eclipse the 60% cover threshold needed in this specific high-tempo situational angle. Expect a comfortable double-digit victory in front of a hostile crowd.”

2. Hawai’i vs Arkansas

• The Pick: Over 161 (-110)
• A.I. Justification: “Arkansas matches Alabama with a 74.1% win rate (23-8) and is a heavy 15-point favorite. Rather than trusting Arkansas to cover the massive spread against Hawai’i, the total offers superior market value. Expect Arkansas to push the pace, dragging the opposition into a track meet that models show eclipses the projected total at a highly profitable rate.”

3. McNeese vs Vanderbilt

• The Pick: Vanderbilt -11.5 (-110)
• A.I. Justification: “At 24-7, Vanderbilt carries a stellar 77.4% win rate into this postseason clash. They are laying 11.5 points against McNeese with a moderate total of 150.5. When factoring in the market’s moderate total, this game projects to be a slightly more controlled environment. Trust Vanderbilt to handle their business in the half-court and easily cover the spread.”

4. Saint Louis vs Georgia

• The Pick: Over 170 (-110)
• A.I. Justification: If you are looking for a true shootout, look no further than Athens. Both teams rank in the top 25 in all of DI in tempo and oddsmakers have hung a massive 170-point total on this matchup – the highest over/under projection of the entire slate. Georgia is only a narrow 2.5-point home favorite, suggesting a tightly contested, back-and-forth affair. In a game script where both teams are expected to trade baskets relentlessly without playing heavily restricted defense, riding the Over is the strongest AI angle.”

5. Texas A&M vs Saint Mary’s

• The Pick: Texas A&M +2.5 (-110)
• A.I. Justification: Texas A&M brings SEC-caliber physicality and tournament experience against a 27-4 Saint Mary’s squad. The market has priced this as a nail-biter, favoring the #21 ranked Gaels by just 2.5 points with a relatively low total of 147. A lower total usually points to a grinding, possession-by-possession battle rather than a fast-paced shootout. In those gritty, half-court scenarios, the Aggies’ size and defensive toughness – honed against the nation’s best conference – gives them the edge to keep this within a bucket. Getting 2.5 points with a battle-tested SEC squad in a rock fight is the smartest path forward.”