March Madness MOP Odds: Final Four Picks & Best Bets for 2026

• Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg is the favorite to win March Madness Most Outstanding Player at 27% implied probability on Kalshi
• Arizona and Michigan are co-favorites at 33% implied probability to win the national title
• Check out my March Madness MOP odds breakdown and picks for the 2026 Final Four, below

The Final Four is locked in. Michigan faces Arizona and UConn takes on Illinois this Saturday in Indianapolis, and the March Madness Most Outstanding Player race is one of the most wide-open it’s been in years.

Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg has separated himself as the clear favorite, trading at 27 cents on Kalshi (27% implied probability). But there’s a strong case to look elsewhere.

Here’s a full breakdown of the March Madness Most-Outstanding Player odds ahead of the weekend, plus my picks for where the value actually lies.

Updated 2026 March Madness MOP Odds

Prediction Markets

NCAA Tournament MOP

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Kalshi

Yaxel Lendeborg

27%

Brayden Burries

14%

Keaton Wagler

13%

Koa Peat

10%

Tarris Reed Jr.

9%

Jaden Bradley

8%

Milan Momcilovic

8%

Darryn Peterson

6%

Thomas Haugh

5%

Morez Johnson Jr.

4%

Predict

Lendeborg’s price on Kalshi has nearly doubled over the past week, jumping 14 points to 27 cents. That’s the biggest upward move in the entire market.

Arizona’s Brayden Burries sits second at 14 cents (13% implied probability), followed by Illinois freshman Keaton Wagler at 13 cents. UConn’s Tarris Reed Jr. rounds out the realistic contenders at 9 cents, while Arizona’s Jaden Bradley (8 cents) and Koa Peat (9 cents) give the Wildcats three players in the top six.

Beyond those names, it gets long in a hurry. Michigan’s Morez Johnson Jr. is at 5 cents, and everyone else is 4 cents or lower.

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Price as of Mar. 31 at Kalshi Sportsbook. The table will update automatically in real time as the market shifts. Grab a Kalshi promo code to start trading today.

The important context here is the March Madness championship odds. Arizona and Michigan are dead even at 33% implied probability to win the title, with Illinois at 17% and UConn at 14%. Since every MOP winner since 1983 has come from the championship-winning team, this is really a two-part question: which team wins, and who’s their best player?

March Madness MOP Picks

• Brayden Burries (14 cents on Kalshi)
• Tarris Reed Jr. (9 cents on Kalshi)

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Fade: Yaxel Lendeborg

I’m passing on Lendeborg at 27 cents. He’s been phenomenal through four tournament games, averaging 21 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists while shooting 59% from the field and 50% from three.

The 27-point eruption against Tennessee in the Elite Eight was as dominant as any individual performance this tournament. But at that price, you’re essentially making a two-leg parlay. Michigan has to win the title, and then Lendeborg has to be judged the best player over the final weekend.

Buy: Brayden Burries

I like Burries at 14 cents instead. Arizona is tied with Michigan in the championship odds, and Burries has been the Wildcats’ most electric offensive weapon all year.

The freshman guard put up 23 points against Arkansas in the Sweet 16 on 63.6% shooting, and he averaged 17.2 points in Big 12 play with a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. If the Wildcats cut down the nets, Burries will be the reason why. At 14 cents, the price is nearly half of Lendeborg’s and the championship probability is identical.

Fade: Keaton Wagler

A quick word on Wagler at 13 cents. The Illinois freshman dropped 25 points in the Elite Eight win over Iowa and earned South Regional MOP honors, sending the Illini to their first Final Four since 2005.

He’s playing well above his experience level, but the MOP award has leaned heavily toward upperclassmen recently. Eight of the last nine winners were juniors or seniors, and Illinois is the second-longest shot to cut down the nets at 17%.

Longshot Buy: Tarris Reed Jr.

For a longshot, give me Reed at 9 cents. The UConn big man has put together arguably the most impressive individual tournament of anyone left standing.

He dropped 31 points and 27 rebounds in the first round against Furman, then went for 26 points, nine rebounds, four blocks and three assists in the Elite Eight comeback over Duke. He earned East Regional MOP honors averaging 21.7 points and 13.5 rebounds across UConn’s four wins.

The Huskies are the longest shot to win it all at 14%, so this is a dart throw. But if UConn pulls off two more upsets, Reed is the automatic choice.