Michigan vs Duke Picks & Player Props to Bet (Feb 21)

• #1 Michigan is a 2.5-point favorite over #3 Duke tonight in the Game of the Year
• The Wolverines are 13-0 in games away from Ann Arbor this season
• See my Michigan vs Duke picks and player props to bet for this massive showdown on Feb. 21

The Game of the Year goes down tonight, as #1 Michigan (25-1, 15-1 Big Ten) faces #3 Duke (24-2, 13-1 ACC) on a neutral court. The college basketball odds have pegged the Wolverines as 2.5-point favorites for this potential Final Four preview, but I actually think the spread is a bit light.

Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 pm ET from Capitol One Arena, in Washington, DC, with ESPN having the honors of broadcasting this heavyweight tilt.

Here are my Michigan vs Duke picks and player props to bet for this massive showdown on Feb. 21.

Michigan vs Duke Picks

ATS Pick: Michigan -2.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

These two teams rank first and third respectively in the NCAA Tournament champion odds, with the Wolverines seeking their first title since 1989. Michigan and Duke grade out as the top-two defenses in the nation, but it should be noted that the Wolverines have faced a much tougher cast of opponents.

The Big Ten is absolutely loaded top to bottom, with four top-10 teams, and six ranked inside the top-25. Contrast that with the ACC, who have only one top-10 program in Duke and only two ranked inside the top-15. Additionally, 11 of the ACC’s 18 teams rank outside the top 70 in offensive efficiency, allowing the Blue Devils to pad their defensive stats against inferior competition.

What the Wolverines have been able to accomplish so far isn’t being properly valued by the market, and I’ll gladly lay 2.5 points with the best team in the country.

From a matchup perspective, nearly everything favors Michigan at both ends of the court. Offensively, they’re more potent and efficient, while they also generate more assists and gobble up more rebounds. In their own end, the Wolverines may allow a few more points, but that’s a product of a ridiculously tough schedule.

Key Statistical Metrics: Michigan vs Duke

Michigan holds opposing teams to the lowest shooting efficiency in the country, and are top-four in blocks. They relentlessly pressure the ball and force bad shots, while their interior size gives everyone fits.

Their defense in the paint is one of the reasons I’m down on Cam Boozer in the college basketball player props market (more on that later) and is one of the keys to neutralizing the Blue Devils offense.

Another reason to be down on Duke is their play away from home. They average 6 fewer points in road games this season, and both of their losses have come on the road. The Wolverines, meanwhile, are 13-0 in contests outside of Ann Arbor, with an average margin of victory of 16.3 points.

Michigan is a better shooting team across the board and has a trio of front-court players the Blue Devils won’t have answers for. Yaxel Lendegorg, Morez Johnson Jr and Aday Mara can all find major success in this matchup, while the Wolverines’ guard play is elite. Four Michigan guards shoot north of 37% from three, led by Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney.

Michigan vs Duke Player Props

• Cam Boozer Under 21.5 Points (-120 at FanDuel)

Switching over to the Michigan vs Duke player props, where I’m betting under 21.5 points for Boozer. The future NBA star has yet to face a frontcourt as imposing as the Wolverines, and their size and rim protection is going to make his shot creation incredibly difficult.

As a result, Michigan will likely be able to get the ball out of his hands and force Duke into more long-range shots. Few teams defend the arc as well as the Wolverines, which is another reason I like betting them against the spread.