Michigan vs Purdue Picks, Best Bets & How to Watch (Feb 17)

• Michigan is ranked No. 1 for the first time since the 2013 season
• Why elite offensive efficiency ratings will drive the score Over the 152.5 total
• Our expert analysis reveals the best bets for Michigan at Purdue

The Final Four still is more than a month away, but this week seems like the next best thing for newly minted No. 1 Michigan.

Tonight, the Wolverines (24-1, 14-1 Big Ten) travel to No. 7 Purdue (21-4, 11-3 B1G). Saturday, Michigan takes on No. 2 Duke. If Michigan survives this gauntlet, there’s no reason to think the Wolverines can’t hang their first NCAA Tournament banner since 1989.

First things first: Purdue has surged back into the top 10 behind a four-game winning streak and a high-octane offense. Tip-off is set for 6:30 pm, ET (Peacock).

Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg already has gone viral for his comments regarding the Boilermakers, “we gonna spank they … a–“. While Michigan coach Dusty May has downplayed the bulletin-board material, the atmosphere inside Mackey is expected to be hostile as Purdue looks to close the gap in the conference standings.

We break down Michigan at Purdue and offer expert betting advice.

Purdue vs Michigan Best Bets & Prediction

The oddsmakers have installed the visiting Wolverines as 2.5-point favorites, respecting their unblemished road résumé. However, the metrics suggest they got it wrong. Purdue possesses the unique combination of interior scoring efficiency and elite ball distribution required to dismantle Michigan’s defensive scheme.

The Pick: Purdue +3.0 (-110 at Fanatics)

Michigan is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite this season. And Mackey Arena presents a unique variable that statistical road records often fail to quantify. The value lies with the Boilermakers catching points at home, specifically due to the matchup in the backcourt. Purdue is orchestrated by Braden Smith, who leads the conference with 8.9 assists per game. His experience and ability to manipulate defensive rotations is the antidote to Michigan’s length.

The deciding factor will likely occur in the paint. Purdue center Oscar Cluff shoots 72.8%, converting 107-of-147 attempts. While Michigan features elite rim protection from Aday Mara (averaging 2.76 blocks per game), Cluff’s footwork and Smith’s delivery allow Purdue to create high-percentage scoring opportunities that neutralize shot blockers.

Historically, road favorites in top-10 conference matchups cover the spread at a rate below 45% when the home team possesses a top-15 offensive efficiency rating. Take the points with the home team in a possession-by-possession grind. For bettors seeking higher variance, the Moneyline at +118 offers solid value given Purdue’s 21-win pedigree.

The Total: Over 152.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

This contest features two of the most efficient offensive units in the country, setting the stage for a game where offensive execution outweighs defensive stoppage.

• Frontcourt Efficiency: Neither program relies on transition chaos to score; they execute in the half-court. Purdue’s Cluff (72.8% FG) and forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (18.1 PPG) provide a high scoring floor. Conversely, Michigan’s Morez Johnson Jr. leads the league in field goal percentage at 67.9%, while teammate Aday Mara shoots 65.1%.
• Shooting Trends: Both rosters are shooting collectively over 48% from the field this season. When two teams with effective field goal percentages (eFG%) this high meet, the Over hits at a > 60% clip in conference play.
• Pace Factor: While not a track meet, the high conversion rates mean fewer empty possessions. Expect a final score in the 78-82 range, comfortably clearing the 152.5 number.

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Public Betting Splits

As expected with the No. 1 team in the country taking the floor, the public interest is heavily skewed toward the road favorite. However, a deeper dive into the betting splits reveals that our recommended picks on Purdue and the Under are firmly contrarian, placing us on the side of the sportsbooks against the overwhelming public sentiment.

The Spread

The betting public is not shying away from laying the points with Michigan, despite the hostile environment at Mackey Arena.

• Betting Percentage: Michigan is receiving a slight majority of the tickets at 52.38%.
• Money Percentage: The conviction level rises significantly when looking at the handle, with Michigan commanding 75.71% of the total money wagered.

This discrepancy indicates that larger wagers are backing the Wolverines to cover the spread. By taking Purdue +2.5, we are fading a significant liability for the books, sitting on the side that accounts for only 24.29% of the money—a classic “sharp” signal where the money percentage favors the underdog despite ticket count being split.

The Moneyline

The confidence in Michigan extends to the outright market, where the disparity is even more pronounced.

• Ticket Count: A massive 77.81% of all moneyline bets are on Michigan to win outright.
• Money Handle: The financial support is even higher, with 83.17% of the handle backing the Wolverines.

The Boilermakers are a clear “nobody believes in us” underdog in the eyes of the betting public, with only 16.83% of the money supporting a home upset.

The Total

The public generally favors scoring, and this matchup is no exception, though the split is less drastic than the side markets.

• Over 156.5: Receiving 60.02% of the bets and 59.8% of the money.
• Under 156.5: Receiving 39.98% of the bets and 40.2% of the money.

Our prediction for a defensive battle (Under 156.5) aligns with the minority of bettors (roughly 40%), once again taking a contrarian stance against the majority who are expecting a high-scoring affair.

Michigan vs Purdue Tale of Tape

While Michigan scores more total points, Purdue holds the advantage in pure distribution. Braden Smith is the engine of the Boilermakers’ offense, averaging 8.9 assists with a 3.0 assist-to-turnover ratio. Michigan’s primary handler, Elliot Cadeau, averages 5.5 assists with a 2.25 ratio. In a high-pressure environment, the steady hand of a superior distributor often dictates the flow of the game, giving Purdue a reliability edge in crunch time.

How to Watch Michigan vs Purdue

Tonight’s top-10 showdown will be streamed nationally on Peacock. Tip-off is set for 6:30 pm, ET, from Mackey Arena in West Lafayette.

Michigan vs Purdue Odds

The following betting markets for Tuesday night’s game at Mackey Arena are current as of February 16, 2026.

• Moneyline: Michigan -142 | Purdue +118
• Spread: Michigan -2.5 (-103) | Purdue +2.5 (-118)
• Total: Over 152.5 (-115) | Under 152.5 (-105)

Odds sourced from consensus sportsbooks.

The market has shown significant respect for Purdue since the opening lines were posted. Michigan opened as a -160 moneyline favorite, but sharp action has driven that price down to -142, shortening Purdue’s odds from +130 to +118. While the spread has remained static at 2.5, the vigorous (vig) has shifted heavily to Purdue (-118), suggesting books are mitigating liability on the home dog and potentially preparing to move the line to +2. The total has ticked up from 151.5 to 152.5, aligning with the “Over” thesis based on offensive efficiency.

Vig-Free Win Probabilities

By removing the sportsbook’s margin, we can determine the implied win probability for each side:

• Michigan Wolverines: 56.1%
• Purdue Boilermakers: 43.9%

The 43.9% implied probability for Purdue is notably high for a team facing the No. 1 squad in the nation, reinforcing the narrative that this game is closer to a coin flip than the rankings suggest.

Potential Payout Scenarios

For bettors looking to leverage the moneyline market, here is the potential return on a standard $20 wager:

• Betting Michigan (-142): A $20 wager yields $14.08 in profit (Total Payout: $34.08).
• Betting Purdue (+118): A $20 wager yields $23.60 in profit (Total Payout: $43.60).