Most-Likely March Madness Upsets & Best Underdogs to Bet in 2026

• The NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64 begins on Thursday, March 19
• Santa Clara has the ingredients to make a Cinderella run, led by their opportunistic defense
• See the most likely March Madness upsets and the best underdogs to bet below

The Madness is here, and while the tournament officially tips off on Tuesday with the First Four games, the action doesn’t really start until Thursday. That’s when we get two straight days of wall-to-wall hoops from noon ET until the wee hours of the morning, where chaos is bound to ensue.

Every year shocking upsets occur at the NCAA Tournament, and I’ve found three potential Cinderella teams to target in the Round of 64. Keep reading for my most likely March Madness upsets and the best underdogs to bet on Thursday and Friday, below.

Most Likely Mach Madness Upsets

My favorite underdog to target is Santa Clara at +150, who’s back in the NCAA Tournament for the firs time since 1996. They’ll draw a vulnerable Kentucky program who limps into March Madness, having lost six of their last 10 games.

I’m also betting VCU over North Carolina at +122, as this year’s Rams squad has the potential to replicate the Cinderella runs of previous VCU teams. I’ll round out my betting card with McNeese upsetting Vanderbilt as a +490 underdog.

Odds as of March 16 at Kalshi and FanDuel. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code to bet on March Madness.

March Madness Best Underdogs to Bet #1: Santa Clara Broncos

• Santa Clara Over Kentucky (+150 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Santa Clara vs Kentucky

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Kalshi

Kentucky

61%

Santa Clara

40%

Predict

I have little doubt the Broncos are going to be very popular in college basketball public betting circles. This is a team with an extremely opportunistic defense, and that crashes the boards well and shoots a ton of threes. They grade out 35th overall per KenPom, just seven spots lower than their Round of 64 opponent Kentucky, and just pushed Gonzaga to the brink in the WCC Championship, after beating St. Mary’s in the semis.

Santa Clara forces a turnover on 20% of opponent possessions, and ranks 13th in steals. They were the WCC’s best offense, even better than the Zags, shooting the 21st most threes in the nation, while averaging 83 points per contest. Their biggest offensive threat is freshman big Allen Graves, who’s averaging 33 points per 40 minuts since February.

Kentucky meanwhile, ranks 83rd in offensive efficiency since the start of the month, and is outside the top-100 in defensive rebounding. The Wildcats don’t protect the arc well and struggle to generate turnovers at one end, and are allergic to offensive rebounds at the other end. That will make it tough for them to produce extra possessions, while the Broncos will be thriving on second chance opportunities all game long.

March Madness Best Underdogs to Bet #2: VCU Rams

• VCU Over North Carolina (+122 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

VCU vs UNC

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Kalshi

North Carolina

57%

VCU

45%

Predict

Onto VCU versus North Carolina now, with the Rams catching just 2.5-points in the college basketball odds. I wouldn’t be surprised if that number was even shorter by tip-off, as few teams are as hot as VCU right now.

The Rams just captured the A10 Title, and have won 16 of their past 17 contests. Unlike previous VCU tourney teams, this year’s squad doesn’t have any elite defensive traits, but their offense more than makes up for it. The Rams are one of the best three-point shooting teams in March Madness (36.7%), and get to the free throw line at an elite rate.

Lazar Djokovic is the name to keep your eye one, as VCU is 10.3 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor. The Rams rank above average in a lot of key metrics I use for trying to identify underdogs, like assist-to-turnover differential and total rebounding, and they start fast. VCU is top-18 in first half points, helping them storm out to early leads.

As for their opponent, UNC’s season fell apart after projected lottery pick Caleb Wilson went down. Without him, they don’t have the firepower to match good offensive teams, and they’re extremely vulnerable against good three-point shooting squads. The Tar Heels also start extremely slow (198th in first half scoring), so consider playing VCU’s first half moneyline (+110) as well.

March Madness Best Underdogs to Bet #3: McNeese Cowboys

• McNeese Over Vanderbilt (+490 at FanDuel)

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I’ll save my biggest underdog for last. McNeese is just not a team you want to face early, as they excel at generating turnovers. The Cowboys are number one in the nation in steals, forcing a turnover on 24% of opponent possessions. They also protect the ball and grab offensive boards at an elite rate, creating multiple avenues to produce second chance opportunities.

Larry Johnson leads the offensive attack, fresh off one of the best freshman seasons in the country. They also feature last year’s conference player of the year Javohn Garcia, who flashed his ceiling with 31 points in their Southland Title victory over Stephen F. Austin.

Vanderbilt meanwhile, is getting a ton of love after bouncing March Madness champion odds contender Florida en route to a runner-up finish in the SEC Tournament, but this team with plenty of flaws. The Commodores rank 197th in scoring defense, and outside the top-200 in rebounding. They’re also one of the foul happiest teams in the tournament, putting the opposition on the free throw line 24 times per contest.