Most-Outstanding Player Odds, Prices & Picks

• Cameron Boozer is the favorite in the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player market
• Boozer is the Wooden Awards odds favorite, while his Duke squad is favored to win March Madness
• Keep reading for the full list of Most Outstanding Player odds, prices and picks, below

Now that the NCAA Tournament bracket is set, it’s time to dive into the awards markets. The Most Outstanding Player of the Year is the most coveted honor, and there’s one clear prerequisite for the ultimate winner. Every Most Outstanding Player of the Year since 1984 has come from the National Championship winning team. That makes our job simple. Identify the most likely squad to win it all, and then choose from their standout stars.

See below for the complete list of Most Outstanding Player odds and prices, plus my favorite picks to make in this market.

Most Outstanding Player Odds

Prediction Markets

NCAA Tournament MOP

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Cameron Boozer

22%

Kingston Flemings

8%

Braden Smith

5%

Darius Acuff Jr.

4%

AJ Dybantsa

2%

Keaton Wagler

0%

Joshua Jefferson

0%

Jeremy Fears Jr.

0%

JT Toppin

0%

Caleb Wilson

0%

Predict

At the time of writing, this market is only available on Kalshi. Duke’s Cameron Boozer is the favorite, with the prediction market giving him a 22% chance of capturing the award. That’s the equivalent of +355 odds to claim the honor in traditional sports betting terms, which is a much better bet than wagering on Duke at +300 in the March Madness Champion odds.

After Boozer, only four other players current boast prices, led by Houston’s Kingston Flemings. Of the group, I think you can make the best case for Purdue’s Braden Smith, as I believe the West Region is the weakest group, making the Boilermakers more likely to crack the Final Four.

My favorite pick in this market is Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg at +525. The projected NBA lottery pick is a force at both ends of the court, giving him multiple ways to significantly affect the game and put the Wolverines on his back.

Most Outstanding Player Picks

• Braden Smith (+1900 at Kalshi)
• Yaxel Lendeborg (+525 at Kalshi)

Let’s start with the favorite, and try to break down the case against Boozer. That’s easier said than done, since he’s an overwhelming favorite in the Wooden Award Odds. Boozer is on pace to finish with the best offensive rating ever at KenPom. He’s produced better scoring, rebounding and 3-point number than last year’s winner Cooper Flagg, and he’s the reason Duke is the top overall seed in the March Madness bracket.

As good as the Blue Devils are, there’s reasons to be concerned about them winning their first title since 2015. Don’t forget, to claim Most Outstanding Player your team must win it all, and Duke is limping into the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils are down two key starters in the key March Madness injuries and didn’t earn a favorable draw in the East Region. They’ll have to navigate a group that features UConn, Kansas and Michigan State, all top-10 championship contenders, as well as a dangerous St. John’s.

That’s too much competition for me to buy Boozer in this market, even if I’m willing to admit he’ll be a virtual lock to win the award if Duke captures the National Title.

Moving onto Smith, who’s the best player on the preseason No. 1 Boilermakers. Purdue is fresh off a Big Ten Title and boasts a championship quality roster led by their star point guard. Smith ranks second in the nation in assists, and is a career 39% shooter from beyond the arc.

If the Boilermakers go on a championship run, Smith will be the catalyst, and the draw has broken right for them. Outside of top-seed Arizona, the West Region isn’t that deep. They’ll be favored in every game leading up to the Elite Eight, and their number one offense per KenPom is good enough to catapult them past anyone.

As for Lendeborg, he’s the best player on a Michigan squad that has the shortest Final Four odds. He’s the main reason the Wolverines are top-five in offensive and defensive rating, and he’s a stat stuffer in every category. Lendeborg averages 15 points a game, on 51% shooting. He knocks down 35% of his triples, while grabbing 7 boards, and chipping in 3+ assists. At the other end of the floor, he contributes 2.5 stocks per outing, making him the total package.

Michigan also got a pretty favorable draw, making it more likely they’ll be in the final than a team like Duke. They’ll meet the winner of the West Region in the Final Four, while the Blue Devils are projected to face either last year’s Champion Florida, or runner-up Houston if they escape the East.