MVC Tournament Odds, Picks, Schedule & How to Watch

• Belmont is a +155 favorite to win the MVC Tournament which begins on Thursday
• The Bruins lead the conference in scoring, but Illinois State is the most complete team
• See the MVC Tournament odds, plus my picks, the schedule and how to watch below

The MVC Tournament tips off on Thursday, with the winner earning the conference’s lone March Madness entry. Drake has lifted the trophy in each of the past three seasons, but online sportsbooks are not expecting a four-peat. Top seed Belmont has been installed as the +155 favorite, followed by #6 seed Northern Iowa at +475.

This year’s edition of Arch Madness features four 20-win teams, all with a realistic shot of cutting down the nets. That brings some of the longshots into play, but history tells us you don’t want to stray too far from the top of the board.

MVC Tournament Odds

After the Panthers, #3 seed Illinois State and #2 seed Bradley are next on the board at +500 and +750, respectively. If you’re fading the top-two favorites, I think both the Redbirds and Braves make sense, while you can also make a case for #4 seed Murray State.

There are no automatic entries into the semifinals, but that hasn’t stopped the cream from rising to the top. The number one and number two seeds have lost just once in the quarterfinals each in the last 27 years, while the average combined seed of the finalists is 3.8.

Also of note is the historically low -scoring nature of this tournament. Points are typically tough to come by in Arch Madness, with game totals of 131.5 or higher hitting the under 68% of the time over the last ten years. That puts an extra emphasis on defense, which may be a reason to stay away from the Bruins.

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MVC Tournament Picks

• Illinois State Redbirds (+500 at bet365)

There’s no question Belmont is the best team on paper at Arch Madness, but there are two red flags that will keep me from betting them at a short number in the college basketball odds. First, is their defense. It ranks middle of the pack in the MVC, and has faltered down the stretch. They coughed up 81+ points in three of their final six games, and rank 358th in the nation in opponent made threes.

The second, is their depth. Leading scorer Tyler Lundblade averages 16 points per outing, but their best outside shooter Nic McClain is done for the season. McClain is also an excellent playmaker, and his skills will sorely be missed in tight games, which this tournament often produces.

As for Northern Iowa, their defense is elite but their offense doesn’t have a high enough ceiling to justify boasting the second shortest price to crack the March Madness odds bracket. The Panthers check in ranked 310th in points per game this season, 365th in free throw makes, and 358th in offensive rebounding.

MVC Offensive Rating

That brings me to Illinois State and Bradley, and I’m taking the former as my favorite MVC Tournament pick. The Redbirds are the most complete team in the conference, ranking third in scoring and second in points allowed.

Illinois State beat each of the other top-four seeds this season, closing out the campaign with wins over Belmont and Northern Iowa.

Four of their five starters average in double-figures, and only the Bruins boast a higher effective field goal percentage. They’re also one of the top rebounding teams in the conference, and are on the other side of the bracket from Belmont, meaning they wouldn’t run into the Bruins until the final.

If you want a longshot that’s gathering buzz in college basketball public betting circles, you could consider Murray State at +1000. The Racers are top-70 in the country in offensive efficiency, and 20th in pace. Three players average 13+ points per game and their high tempo allows their dynamic backcourt to thrive.

The downside however, is their defense. They rank last in the conference in points per game, and just one 5 minute offensive dry spell is long enough to sink them in any contest.

How to Watch MVC Tournament & 2026 Schedule

First round action of the MVC Tournament tips off on Thursday, March 5th at 4:30 pm ET, 3:30 pm CT. The quarterfinals take place the following day, with the semis set for Saturday, March 6th, and the final for Sunday, March 7th.

All games will take place at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, with opening round and quarterfinal action coverage provided by ESPN+. The broadcast will shift to CBS on the weekend, with CBS Sports Network airing the semifinals, and CBS handling Championship Game coverage.