NC State vs Louisville Best Bets, Picks & Predictions (Feb 9)

• NC State looks to extend its six-game ACC winning streak as 6.5-point road underdogs at Louisville
• Both programs average 85.7 points per game, the total of 161.5 offers value on the Over
• We analyze NC State at Louisville and offer expert betting advice

NC State is doing things this year that no Wolfpack team has done since David Thompson left town.

The Wolfpack have won six consecutive ACC games — their longest streak since Thompson and Co. won 26 consecutive ACC regular-season games in the early 1970s.

NC State (18-6, 9-2) still isn’t ranked, but the Wolfpack are just 1 game out of first place in a loaded ACC.

Tonight, the Pack travel to No. 24 Louisville (17-6, 7-4), which is higher ranked but farther down the ACC standings. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET at the KFC Yum! Center (ESPN).

Louisville is a consensus 6.5-point home favorite, forcing bettors to decide whether the Cardinals’ home-court advantage justifies laying three possessions against the ACC’s hottest team.

We’ll analyze the matchup and offer expert betting advice for NC State at Louisville.

NC State vs Louisville Best Bets & Expert Predictions

Louisville possesses a potent scorer in Ryan Conwell and historically performs well at the Yum! Center, but the Wolfpack’s interior dominance and elite distribution create a live underdog scenario.

Spread Pick: NC State +6.5 (-111) at BetMGM

We are backing NC State +6.5 to cover the spread. The oddsmakers have priced Louisville as the clear superior, yet the Wolfpack’s recent form suggests the gap is negligible. NC State enters this matchup 9-2 in conference play, relying on high-percentage shot selection that travels well on the road. Notably, the Pack at 6-1 in true road games this season.

The Wolfpack feature the ACC’s most efficient shooter in Ven-Allen Lubin (13.3 points per game), who leads the conference with a 67.9% field goal percentage. This interior efficiency provides a stabilizing floor for their offense. Louisville’s defense faces the dual challenge of containing Lubin in the paint while disrupting the league’s premier facilitator, Quadir Copeland (7.0 APG). While the Cardinals rely heavily on perimeter volume — specifically from Conwell, who has attempted a team-high 313 field goals — NC State generates high-quality looks at the rim. If Louisville experiences any regression from beyond the arc, the Wolfpack’s ability to score inside should keep this contest within two possessions.

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Total Prediction: Over 161.5 (-110) at Bet365

The Over 161.5 is the recommended play in a game projecting high tempo and offensive efficiency. The implied team totals — 84.5 for Louisville and 77.5 for NC State — indicate expectations for a transition-heavy affair.

Louisville’s offensive identity is built on pace and three-point variance, with Conwell (18.4 PPG) and Isaac McKneely (39.6% 3P) capable of scoring in rapid bursts. Conversely, NC State boasts a balanced attack with four players averaging at least 14.0 points per game, including Darrion Williams (14.7) and Paul McNeil Jr. (14.1). When combining Louisville’s tendency to accelerate the game with NC State’s elite finishing inside the arc (Lubin shoots 70.1% on two-point attempts), the statistical profile points toward a shootout that should comfortably eclipse the 80-point mark for both sides.

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Public Betting

The college basketball public betting trends for this ACC showdown reveal a sharp divide between moneyline confidence and spread valuation.

Spread Trends

Bettors are showing respect for the Wolfpack’s six-game winning streak. While the moneyline is lopsided, the spread market leans toward the road underdog. 54.84% of spread bets and 57.65% of the handle have backed NC State, indicating that a majority of the market views 6.5 points as too generous for a team in such strong form.

Moneyline Trends

Conversely, the general public overwhelmingly expects Louisville to win outright. The Cardinals are commanding 93.36% of the bets and 80.74% of the money on the moneyline. This split suggests a “middle” mindset: the public expects a Louisville victory but anticipates a competitive game that finishes closer than the odds suggest.

Total Trends

Our recommendation on the Over 161.5 is a contrarian position. The betting splits on the total are heavily skewed toward the Under, attracting 85.1% of tickets and 80.19% of the handle. This creates a notable opportunity to fade the public consensus. While the majority of bettors may be looking at defensive metrics or historical road struggles, the pace data and offensive efficiency ratings for both Copeland and Lubin point toward a higher ceiling than the market anticipates.

NC State vs. Louisville Stats Comparison & Mismatches

Despite the spread separation, advanced metrics and RPI rankings place these teams virtually neck-and-neck nationally. Louisville sits at No. 28 in RPI, with NC State immediately trailing at No. 32.

While Louisville allows fewer points per game (70.7 vs. 72.5), the strength of schedule metric (0.5741 for NC State vs. 0.5702 for Louisville) suggests the Cardinals’ defensive numbers may be padded by a softer home schedule (12-2 record). Against a top-tier offense like NC State, those defensive metrics will be tested, further validating the Over selection.

NC State vs Louisville Odds

The following odds reflect the current consensus lines for Monday night’s game at the KFC Yum! Center.

• Moneyline: Louisville -292 | NC State +231
• Spread: Louisville -6.5 (-109) | NC State +6.5 (-111)
• Total: Over/Under 161.5 (-110 / -109)

Odds as of February 09, 2026 at 01:33 PM EST from consensus.

The market has moved toward the home team, pushing the spread from an opener of -5.5 to -6.5. This line movement indicates sharp respect for Louisville’s home-court advantage despite the Wolfpack’s superior conference standing. The total has seen a slight adjustment downward from 162.5 to 161.5, though it remains one of the highest on the board.

Implied Winning Probabilities

Removing the vigorish (juice) from the moneyline odds provides the implied win probability for each side:

• Louisville Cardinals: 71.2%
• NC State Wolfpack: 28.8%

Moneyline Payouts

For bettors targeting the outright winner, here is the potential return on a standard $20 wager:

• Betting on Louisville (-292): A $20 bet returns a profit of $6.85, for a total payout of $26.85.
• Betting on NC State (+231): A $20 bet returns a profit of $46.20, for a total payout of $66.20.