New Mexico vs Tulsa Picks & Predictions for NIT Semifinals

• Discover why the betting market handle likes underdog Tulsa to cover the +2.5 spread
• Learn why the elite offensive metrics point toward hammering the Over 161.5-point total
• See our best bets for New Mexico vs Tulsa in NIT semifinals tonight

Tulsa tips off against New Mexico tonight in the NIT semifinals. The game starts at 7 pm, ET, at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, with ESPN providing a national broadcast.

New Mexico (26-10) enters as the betting favorite, winning each of its previous NIT games by 15+ points.

Can Tulsa (29-7) cover? Or pull off an upset and advance to the NIT championship game?

We analyze the key metrics and deliver expert advice for Tulsa vs. New Mexico tonight.

New Mexico vs Tulsa Odds

• Moneyline: New Mexico -126 / Tulsa +119
• Point Spread: New Mexico -2.5 (-114) / Tulsa +2.5 (-106)
• Total: 161.5 (Over -110 / Under -109)

Consensus odds on April 2, subject to change

The consensus betting markets indicate a tightening. New Mexico initially opened as a heavier -164 favorite on the moneyline and -3.5 ATS, but sharp action on the underdog has driven the line down to -126 and -2.5. Additionally, the game total has seen an uptick, climbing from the opening number of 160.5 to the current 161.5.

To isolate the true mathematical edge without the sportsbook’s built-in vigorish, we calculate the normalized win probabilities. Removing the juice from the current moneyline reveals a 54.97% implied probability of victory for New Mexico, leaving Tulsa with a 45.03% chance to win the game outright.

For bettors looking to play the outright winner market, a $10 bet at Caesars Sportsbook on the favored New Mexico at -126 would return $7.94 in profit, for a total payout of $17.94. Alternatively, placing the exact same $10 stake on the underdog Tulsa at +119 provides a more lucrative return, yielding $11.90 in profit for a total payout of $21.90 if they secure the upset.

Tulsa vs. New Mexico Predictions & Best Bets

Pick 1: Tulsa +2.5 (-106 at DraftKings)

While New Mexico is the betting favorite, the momentum category offers a distinct mismatch that favors the underdog. Tulsa boasts a dominant 9-1 record over its last 10 games, translating to a 90% win rate down the stretch. Their ability to consistently close out opponents has netted them an excellent .806 overall win percentage and a +12.1 average point differential.

Conversely, New Mexico has experienced more volatility. Despite riding a three-game streak, they are just 6-4 in their last 10 contests. Matching up against a team that has lost just once in its last ten outings is a daunting task, reinforcing our position on taking Tulsa +2.5.

Let’s break down the point spread. New Mexico enters this contest laying -2.5 points (-114) ATS, while Tulsa sits as a +2.5 (-106) underdog. If you are looking for outright value, the underdog moneyline at +119 presents a mathematical edge, but the safer, data-backed play is taking the points. Tulsa has been an absolute buzzsaw, amassing a dominant 29-7 overall record. While New Mexico is undeniably battle-tested from the Mountain West, asking them to cover a multi-possession margin against a team that rarely falters is a tall order.

We are officially locking in Tulsa +2.5 (-106) at DraftKings Sportsbook. The data points to a massive situational advantage for the underdog down the stretch: Tulsa is 9-1 (90% win rate) straight up over its last 10 games, demonstrating an elite ability to execute in high-leverage spots.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Pick 2: Over 161.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Shifting to the total, we are aggressively backing the Over. Oddsmakers have set the consensus number at a lofty 161.5 (Over -110 / Under -109), signaling an expectation of an absolute track meet in Indianapolis. The implied team totals further support this high-octane game script: New Mexico’s team total sits at 82.5 (Over -114), and Tulsa is closely matched at 79.5 (Over -115). Both squads dictate the pace of play with elite offensive efficiency. Rather than sweating out a defensive struggle, bank on both teams executing their game plans and pushing the tempo wire-to-wire.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,500 BACK

IN BONUS BETS!

BET NOW

Public Betting Trends and Splits

Analyzing the college basketball public betting splits is crucial. Let’s take a look:

Spread Betting: Our analysis highlighted the value of taking Tulsa +2.5, and a look at the ATS splits reveals that the market heavily agrees.

• Tulsa: 69.19% of the betting tickets | 88.25% of the money
• New Mexico: 30.81% of the betting tickets | 11.75% of the money

Not only is the general public backing the underdog with nearly 70% of the tickets, but an overwhelming 88.25% of the actual handle wagered on the spread is riding on Tulsa to cover. When the money percentage significantly outpaces the ticket percentage, it signals that larger, more respected wagers are backing that side. Both casual bettors and high-stakes players are confidently locking in the points.

Moneyline Betting: Interestingly, while the market loves the underdog to keep it close ATS, the outright winner market tells a slightly different story:

• New Mexico: 86.16% of the betting tickets | 71.72% of the money
• Tulsa: 13.84% of the betting tickets | 28.28% of the money

Bettors are treating the favorite as a safe outright play, flooding the New Mexico moneyline with 86.16% of the tickets. However, leaning on our most valuable metric—the handle—we can see that Tulsa is drawing 28.28% of the total stake on just 13.84% of the tickets. The heavier concentration of money on the underdog moneyline suggests that a few deep-pocketed bettors are sprinkling on the +119 odds for an outright upset.

The Total (Over/Under): Our best bet for this matchup was Over 161.5, and the betting splits show universal market alignment with an offensive showcase.

• OVER: 93.33% of the betting tickets | 95.53% of the money
• UNDER: 6.67% of the betting tickets | 4.47% of the money

It is rare to see such lopsided consensus on a high total, but there is zero resistance from Under bettors. With 95.53% of the handle backing the Over, the heavy money is entirely in sync with the ticket count. There is no sharp pushback suggesting a slow-paced half-court game, giving us added confidence that both programs will effortlessly dictate a fast-paced script.

Tulsa vs New Mexico Team Stats