North Carolina vs NC State Expert Picks & Props to Bet for ESPN Showdown

• Without Caleb Wilson, North Carolina is a road underdog at rival NC State
• Smart money is heavily backing the Tar Heels on the moneyline
• Our model identifies the best bets for North Carolina at NC State

North Carolina vs. NC State always means something.

Tonight, it means even more because it’s the only time this season that these longtime rivals are scheduled to face each other. Blame ACC expansion for that. These teams are separated by 20 miles and share the same area code, but, unless they meet in the postseason, this will be the first time since 1919 that they’ll only play once in a season.

Tonight’s showdown — the 250th all-time between the rivals — is set for 7 pm, ET at the Lenovo Center (ESPN).

NC State (18-8, 9-4 ACC) is a slight home favorite against the visiting Tar Heels (20-5, 8-4 ACC), who are without freshman sensation Caleb Wilson (fractured hand) and perhaps big man Henri Veesaar, who is listed as questionable with an Achilles’ injury.

With bragging rights on the line, oddsmakers have challenged the public perception of the ranked visitors by installing the hosts as clear favorites.

We analyze UNC at NC State and provide expert betting advice.

North Carolina vs NC State Best Bets & Expert Prediction

The market has constructed a compelling narrative for this contest. While North Carolina holds the superior résumé, the 6.5-point spread favoring NC State suggests oddsmakers are heavily weighting home-court advantage and specific statistical mismatches over general public perception.

We break down the value on the spread, total, and player props below.

Spread Pick: NC State -6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

This is the ultimate “if not now, then when?” opportunity for NC State to get back in the rivalry.

North Carolina is banged up. Wilson (19.8) is out, maybe for the rest of the season. Veesaar (16.4 points, 9.0 rebounds) is listed as questionable. If Veeesaar doesn’t play — or is limited — the Tar Heels are without their two leading scorers and two leading rebounders.

The significant injuries severely alter the landscape of this rivalry matchup, shifting the value firmly towards the home favorites. While North Carolina won its last game without both, facing NC State on the road is a much tougher test. The Wolfpack, desperate to snap a two-game skid and maintain their conference standing, will look to exploit North Carolina’s now-depleted interior. Oddsmakers have set a line that, under normal circumstances, would challenge public perception. However, with North Carolina’s primary advantage nullified by injuries, NC State is well-positioned to cover this spread at home.

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Total Prediction: Over 158.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Despite UNC’s injury concerns, bettors should still expect offensive fireworks in Raleigh. Both programs rely on high-volume perimeter shooting and transition opportunities to generate offense. That will happen even without Wilson. The primary catalyst for the Over is NC State’s Paul McNeil Jr., who has established himself as the premier marksman in the conference. McNeil Jr. leads the ACC in three-point shooting at 43.5% and tops the Wolfpack roster with 81 made threes this season.

Combining NC State’s perimeter barrage with North Carolina’s efficiency creates a recipe for a shootout. Additionally, NC State playmaker Quadir Copeland pushes the pace relentlessly, leading the league with 177 assists. His tempo management should ensure maximized possessions for both squads.

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Best Prop Bet: Darrion Williams Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+240 at Bet365)

NC State forward Darrion Williams averages 2.32 three-pointers made per game this season with an efficient 40.3% shooting from beyond the arc. As North Carolina’s defense is susceptible to allowing open looks from the perimeter, allowing nearly 8 made three-pointers per game.

Expect Williams to take advantage tonight.

Public Betting Data

The college basketball public betting splits for Tuesday night reveal a distinct “Pros vs. Joes” divide, particularly in the moneyline market.

Moneyline: A Classic Sharp vs. Public Split

The most significant disparity appears on the moneyline, where sharp bettors are aggressively fading the public consensus.

• NC State (Home): 74.18% of Bets vs. 25.8% of Money
• North Carolina (Away): 25.82% of Bets vs. 74.2% of Money

While nearly 75% of betting tickets support the favored Wolfpack to win outright, a massive 74.2% of the handle is backing the underdog Tar Heels. This indicates that while casual bettors are content backing the home favorite, high-volume bettors see immense value in North Carolina’s potential to secure an upset.

Spread Trends

The point spread sees the public heavily backing the road underdog, though the money is slightly more hesitant than the ticket count suggests.

• North Carolina (+6.5): 76.47% of Bets / 58.41% of Money
• NC State (-6.5): 23.53% of Bets / 41.59% of Money

The consensus is overwhelmingly taking the points with North Carolina. However, the drop from 76% in ticket volume to 58% in money wagered suggests that the largest bets are somewhat split. Our recommendation to take North Carolina +6.5 aligns with the public majority here—a common occurrence in rivalry games involving a ranked underdog.

Total Trends

Action on the total shows alignment between ticket count and handle, pointing toward a high-scoring affair.

• OVER: 57.7% of Bets / 61.84% of Money
• UNDER: 42.3% of Bets / 38.16% of Money

With 61.84% of the handle backing the Over, the market agrees with our prediction of a shootout. The higher money percentage compared to ticket percentage suggests sharp bettors are slightly more confident in the Over than the general public.

UNC vs NC State Tale of Tape

Keep in mind, Caleb Wilson contributed significantly to UNC’s offensive prowess this season.

North Carolina vs NC State Odds

• Moneyline: NC State -293 | North Carolina +235
• Spread: NC State -6.5 (-109) | North Carolina +6.5 (-110)
• Total: Over/Under 158.5 (-110)

Odds as of February 17, 2026, at 01:22 PM EST from Consensus.

The betting market has taken a firm stance, positioning the NC State Wolfpack as strong home favorites. Despite the Tar Heels’ superior ranking, the consensus line expects NC State to win by nearly three possessions.

When removing the sportsbook vig, the normalized win probabilities imply that NC State has a 71.4% chance of defending their home court, while North Carolina is given a 28.6% chance to pull off the upset.

For bettors weighing risk versus reward on the moneyline:

• A $20 wager on the favored NC State (-293) would yield a profit of just $6.83.
• In contrast, a $20 bet on the underdog North Carolina (+235) would return a profit of $47.00, offering substantial value for those backing the upset.