Ohio State vs Michigan Picks, Predictions & Best Odds

• No. 1 RPI-ranked Michigan averages 92.7 points per game
• Expert analysis favors Michigan -14.5 and Over 163.5 points
• Public money creates a sharp vs. public scenario with 87.19% of stakes backing Ohio State +14.5

As if Michigan and Ohio State ever needed any extra motivation … how about a Friday night date in Ann Arbor?

The AP No. 3-ranked Wolverines are a consensus 14.5-point home favorite tonight against their hated rival Buckeyes. Tip-off is set for 8 pm, ET (FOX). That’s just part of the story: The Wolverines are retiring Trey Burke’s No. 3 jersey. Burke won the 2013 Naismith Player of the Year award and led Michigan to the national championship game that season.

Ohio State couldn’t care less about pomp and circumstance. Earlier this week, OSU forward Colin White told reporters that the Buckeyes “hate Michigan, so we are coming out for blood. We’re going up there to win, and we’re going to have fun doing it.”

Expect fireworks … and maybe a few technical fouls.

Does OSU have a chance? Vegas clearly doesn’t think so. Michigan stormed to a 14-0 start before stumbling against Wisconsin. The Wolverines (17-1, 7-1) rebounded to win their next 3 B1G games by double digits. Ohio State (13-5, 5-3 B1G) has yet to crack the AP Top 25 this season, but the Buckeyes have won their past 2 B1G games.

Let’s dive in and offer the best betting advice on tonight’s Big Ten matchup.

Michigan vs Ohio State Expert Picks & Predictions

Game Spread: Michigan Wolverines -14.5 (-116) via DraftKings

The statistical gap between these rivals justifies backing Michigan to cover the substantial spread. Additionally, the Wolverines are 6-3 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Wolverines’ No. 1 RPI ranking reflects their dominance against quality competition, including a perfect 2-0 record versus Top 25 opponents and 6-1 mark against Top 50 teams. Ohio State’s concerning 0-3 record against Top 25 competition and 0-3 mark vs. Top 50 opponents highlights its struggles when facing elite programs.

Michigan’s interior dominance creates a significant mismatch advantage. Morez Johnson Jr. (13.8 PPG) and Aday Mara (10.9 PPG) both convert at remarkable 67%+ field goal rates and nearly 70% on two-point attempts, suggesting they’ll exploit Ohio State’s defensive vulnerabilities in the paint. The Wolverines’ 92.7 scoring average paired with their stingy 69.0 points allowed per game demonstrates the two-way excellence that separates championship contenders from solid programs.

Home court at Crisler Center amplifies Michigan’s advantages, especially with the emotional boost from Burke’s jersey retirement ceremony.

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Game Total: Over 163.5 Points (-112) via FanDuel

Michigan’s high-octane offense makes the Over an attractive proposition despite the elevated total. The Wolverines’ 92.7 scoring average ranks sixth in the country, fueled by their up-tempo style. Even if Michigan scores slightly below its season average at 85 points, Ohio State only needs to contribute 79 points to push this total over the number.

The Buckeyes possess the offensive weapons to reach that threshold. Bruce Thornton’s 20.7 scoring average leads the Big Ten, while John Mobley Jr. adds 15.3 points per contest with elite 41.4% three-point accuracy (second-best in conference). Devin Royal’s 14.5 scoring average provides a third consistent threat.

Rivalry games often feature increased pace and shot attempts as both teams refuse to back down. Tonight, emotions will be through the roof. Michigan’s superior talent should force Ohio State into a shootout, creating the perfect environment for a high-scoring affair.

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Public Betting Insights

The college basketball betting market reveals a fascinating sharp versus public scenario that creates potential value opportunities for informed bettors.

Moneyline Dynamics

Public sentiment overwhelmingly favors Michigan on the moneyline, with 95.14% of all tickets backing the Wolverines to win outright. However, the money tells a different story – 55.31% of actual dollars wagered support Ohio State compared to 44.69% on Michigan. This sharp divergence suggests larger, more sophisticated bettors are taking a contrarian stance on the Buckeyes’ upset potential, despite the overwhelming public confidence in Michigan.

Spread Betting Patterns

The spread market presents an even more pronounced sharp versus public situation. A commanding 67.36% of bets back Ohio State +14.5, but the money flow is even more lopsided with 87.19% of stakes supporting the Buckeyes to cover. This creates a classic fade-the-public scenario where recreational bettors and sharp money align on the same side – taking the points with the underdog.

Our expert recommendation of Michigan -14.5 directly contradicts this market sentiment, suggesting potential value exists on the heavily bet against Wolverines to cover the large spread.

Total Betting Distribution

The total market shows perfect balance in bet count with 50% backing each side, but money flow leans toward the Under at 57.69% of stakes versus 42.31% on the Over. This indicates larger bettors expect a lower-scoring affair, contrasting with our Over recommendation based on Michigan’s offensive firepower and Ohio State’s desperate scoring needs.

Michigan vs Ohio State Team Stats

Who has the edge tonight in Ann Arbor?

Ohio State’s most concerning statistic may be their 0-3 record against Top 25 opponents and identical 0-3 mark versus Top 50 teams. Thornton’s impressive individual numbers (20.7 PPG on 56.5% shooting) keep the Buckeyes competitive against lesser competition, but Michigan represents a significant step up in class.

Ohio State vs Michigan Betting Odds

Odds as of January 23, 2026, 8:34 AM EST from consensus sportsbooks.

The moneyline heavily favors Michigan at -1538, translating to an implied probability of approximately 93.90% for a Wolverines victory versus 10.49% for an Ohio State upset. These vig-free probabilities demonstrate the market’s confidence in Michigan’s superiority.

For moneyline bettors, a $10 wager on Michigan returns just $10.65 total ($0.65 profit), while the same bet on Ohio State pays $95.30 total ($85.30 profit). A $20 Michigan bet yields $21.30 total ($1.30 profit), compared to $190.60 total ($170.60 profit) on Ohio State. The substantial underdog payout reflects the perceived slim chance of an upset, though Michigan’s historical dominance over Ohio State in recent seasons supports the market’s assessment.