Ohio State vs Wisconsin Predictions & Expert Picks

• Wisconsin is a 4.5-point favorite over Ohio State in Big Ten hoops action on Saturday
• Both teams rank outside the top-115 in scoring defense
• See my Ohio State vs Wisconsin predictions and expert picks for the Jan. 31st showdown, below

Saturday’s in the winter are made for college hoops. We’ve got another loaded slate to focus on today, with the Ohio State (14-6, 6-4 Big Ten) vs Wisconsin (15-6, 7-3 Big Ten) matchup being my main focus.

Online sportsbooks are siding with the hometown Badgers by 4.5-points in the latest college basketball odds, which is a number I think is too high given their form and their underwhelming defense.

The action gets underway at 2 pm ET from the Kohl Center, in Madison, WI, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage. Here are my Ohio State vs Wisconsin predictions and expert picks.

Ohio State vs Wisconsin Predictions and Expert Picks

ATS Pick: Ohio State +4.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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I’m taking the points with the Buckeyes as my Ohio State vs Wisconsin prediction. The Buckeyes enter play winners of three of their past four outings, with the lone loss coming against #3 Michigan in Ann Arbor. Ohio State is fuelled by the 26th best offensive rating, and feature quality guard play and potent interior scoring.

Bruce Thornton is the heart and soul of the attack, averaging 20 points per game and shooting 55% from the field. He’s proficient at driving to the hoop and generating buckets for either himself or his teammates, and he’ll abuse smaller defenders in the post if given the opportunity. His backcourt made John Mobley Jr. can fill the net as well, pouring in 22+ points in four straight.

Bigs Amare Bynum and Devin Royal are also both efficient scorers inside the arc, and will need to pick up the interior scoring slack with center Christoph Tilly out. The matchup is far from imposing, as the Badgers have underwhelmed recently and don’t defend well.

Wisconsin enters play ranked 174th in scoring defense, and 143rd in opponent effective field goal percentage. They’re especially poor defending inside the three-point line, which is Ohio State’s speciality, yielding a 51.4% shooting percentage.

Like the Buckeyes, the Badgers are on the March Madness bubble, and an extreme longshot in the NCAA Tournament champion odds. They need to string some quality wins together to solidify their spot in the tournament, and their best avenue to do so is through their offense.

Key Statistical Metrics: Ohio State vs Wisconsin

Wisconsin loves the 3-ball, attempting the eighth most triples in the nation. They hit on roughly 35% of those attempts, and their 3-point efficiency often decides wins and losses. Guards Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are the team’s most effective scorers, averaging 20 and 18 points respectively. Center Nolan Winter is the third double-digit scorer on the roster, and he should feast inside with Ohio State down their center.

The Badgers have won six of seven, but their level of play has not been high over the last two weeks. They fell to USC at home two games ago, and needed to erase an 18-point deficit versus a Minnesota team that looks NIT bound last time out. The Badgers also underwhelmed versus 130th ranked Rutgers during this latest stretch, and are just 2-6 versus quality opponents.

Ultimately, this game profiles closer to a pick ’em than Wisconsin favored by 4.5. Even if you adjust for the Ohio State injuries, this spread is still too high, making the Buckeyes an easy play against the spread. Ohio State is covering at a 66.7% clip as an away underdog this season, while the Badgers are just 6-7 ATS at home.

Game-Total Pick: Over 155.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

This game opened with a 157.5 point total, but has been bet down to 155.5. At this new line the value is on the over, with most advanced projection sites pegging this game at 158 points.

I mentioned Wisconsin’s defensive woes, but the Buckeyes aren’t much stronger in their own end. They check in with the 117th ranked scoring defense, and rank 132nd in opponent 3-point makes, and 262nd in enemy 3-point attempts.

Ohio State prefers to play slow, but they’ll have to increase their pace to keep up with the Badgers. Wisconsin is top-70 in adjusted tempo, and that faster style will lead to more possessions and more buckets.