Ohio vs Miami (Ohio) Picks & Predictions for Friday’s Game on ESPN

• #23 Miami (Ohio) aims to protect its 13-0 home record
• Analytical models suggest the heavy betting volume on the Under is justified
• We break down the key aspects and trends and offer expert betting advice for Ohio at Miami (Ohio)

The “Battle of the Bricks” takes center stage in the Mid-American Conference tonight as No. 23 Miami (Ohio) look to its their perfect start against visiting Ohio. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 pm, ET (ESPN).

Miami (OH) is 24-0, sitting comfortably atop the conference standings with an 11-0 league mark. Conversely, Ohio (13-12, 7-5 MAC) is looking to bounce back from a recent loss at Old Dominion.

This is their first meeting this season, though they’ll play again in the regular-season finale on March 6.

Can the Bobcats embrace the role of the road underdog and deliver the season’s biggest upset?

We break down Ohio at Miami (Ohio) and offer expert betting advice.

Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio) Picks & Predictions

Spread Pick: Miami (Ohio) -9.5 (-109 at Bet365)

The Miami (OH) RedHawks have not just been winning; they have been suffocating opponents with a balanced attack and opportunistic defense. The analysis here starts with the turnover differential. Ohio’s primary ball-handler, Jackson Paveletzke, bears a massive offensive load (36.1 minutes/game) but has coughed up the ball 59 times this season. He faces a RedHawks perimeter defense featuring Luke Skaljac and Peter Suder, who have combined for 66 steals. This creates a high probability of live-ball turnovers fueling Miami’s transition offense.

Miami’s efficiency inside the arc is the second factor driving this cover. Forward Antwone Woolfolk is shooting a staggering 70.1% on two-point attempts (89-of-127), providing the RedHawks with high-percentage looks that prevent scoring droughts. While 10.5 points is a substantial number for a conference game, Miami is 13-0 straight up at home, often winning by comfortable margins (average scoring margin +18.4). Ohio’s road form (3-6 away record) suggests they lack the defensive consistency to keep pace for 40 minutes. Expect the RedHawks to extend the lead late via free throws, where key forward Brant Byers converts at a reliable 76.4% clip.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Total Prediction: Under 163.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

We are taking the Under on this massive total of 163.5. While both teams have capable scorers, this number appears inflated by recent offensive outbursts that may not translate to the tension of a rivalry atmosphere.

For the Over to hit, Ohio likely needs to contribute 75+ points. However, the Bobcats rely heavily on a trio of scorers—Paveletzke, Aidan Hadaway (14.2 PPG), and Javan Simmons (14.0 PPG)—for the bulk of their production. If Miami’s defense, which includes shot-blocking presence Woolfolk (21 blocks), neutralizes just one of these options, Ohio’s offense lacks the depth to compensate. Furthermore, Miami plays a controlled style; despite their scoring prowess, players like Eian Elmer and Suder are efficient rather than frantic, often utilizing the shot clock to find the best look (Suder shoots 55.9% from the field). A final score in the range of 84-70 feels more appropriate, staying comfortably under the posted total.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Note: Odds are subject to change.

Public Betting Splits

It is no surprise that the college basketball betting public is heavily invested in the RedHawks. The data reveals a market that is largely united in its expectations for a blowout at Millett Hall.

Spread Market

The betting trends for the spread heavily favor the home side. The RedHawks are currently attracting 69.83% of the spread bets, but the conviction behind those wagers is even stronger. Miami (OH) accounts for 76% of the total money wagered on the spread. Typically, when the money percentage exceeds the ticket percentage, it indicates that larger wagers are backing that side. In this case, the heavy handle on Miami aligns with the analytical projection of a cover, suggesting that both casual bettors and higher-volume players expect the Bobcats to struggle on the road.

Moneyline Market

The Moneyline market shows the most lopsided ticket count of the night. A staggering 93.9% of all bets are on the RedHawks to win outright. However, the money distribution paints a slightly more nuanced picture. While Miami still commands the majority of the handle, that number drops to 66.89% of the money. This discrepancy — where the ticket count is nearly unanimous but the money is closer to a two-thirds split—suggests that while the general public is using Miami as a safe parlay piece, there is some respected money grabbing the plus-money value on Ohio, likely hoping for a historic upset.

Total Market

In a rare turn for a nationally televised game, the public is shying away from the Over. The betting splits for the Total show 61.3% of tickets on the Under, accompanied by 61.54% of the money. This consensus on the Under supports the projection that the 163.5 total is inflated. When the public — who historically favors high-scoring affairs — piles into an Under, it often signals that the line has been set too high relative to the perceived pace of the matchup.

Ohio vs Miami (Ohio) Key Stats & Analysis

Miami (OH) is the class of the MAC and one of the most efficient offensive units in the country. The RedHawks are scoring 92.7 points per game, significantly outpacing an Ohio squad that relies heavily on a few key contributors to generate offense.

While Ohio has played a slightly tougher schedule according to RPI metrics, Miami’s ability to dominate significantly weaker competition suggests they are poised to exploit the Bobcats’ defensive lapses. The table below outlines the key metrics defining this matchup.

The Offensive Disparity: The most glaring disparity in this matchup is offensive firepower. The RedHawks are averaging 92.7 points per game, a full 15 points higher than the Bobcats’ average of 77.7. Miami’s efficiency is driven by interior dominance and ball movement. Forward Antwone Woolfolk is converting 70.1% of his two-point attempts, forcing defenses to collapse and opening lanes for perimeter threats. Conversely, Ohio operates with a much thinner margin for error. With a scoring differential of just +0.4 on the season, the Bobcats are often embroiled in close contests, whereas Miami blows teams out by an average of 18.4 points.

Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio) Odds

• Moneyline: Miami (OH) -606 | Ohio +437
• Spread: Miami (OH) -10.5 (-108) | Ohio +10.5 (-112)
• Total: Over 163.5 (-108) | Under 163.5 (-112)

Odds as of February 13, 2026, from consensus odds.

The betting market firmly establishes the undefeated Miami (OH) RedHawks as the clear favorite, pricing them as heavy -606 favorites on the moneyline. This valuation reflects the RedHawks’ dominance at Millett Hall, requiring bettors to pay a steep premium to back the home team straight up. The consensus 10.5-point spread suggests that oddsmakers expect Miami to win comfortably, but perhaps not without some resistance from their conference rivals. Additionally, the lofty total of 163.5 points indicates expectations for a high-tempo shootout, aligning with the offensive firepower displayed by the home side throughout the season.

Implied Winning Probabilities

By removing the vigorish (the sportsbook’s fee) from the consensus moneyline prices, we can calculate the true win probability implied by the current odds:

• Miami (OH) RedHawks: 82.2%
• Ohio Bobcats: 17.8%

Betting Return Scenarios

For bettors looking to wager on the outright winner, the disparity in prices creates vastly different risk-reward profiles. Here is how a standard $20 bet would pay out for each side:

• A $20 wager on Miami (OH) to win (-606) would yield a profit of just $3.30, resulting in a total payout of $23.30.
• A $20 wager on Ohio to pull the upset (+437) would return a significant profit of $87.40, for a total payout of $107.40.