Ole Miss vs Alabama Expert Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits (March 13)

• Alabama is an 11.5-point favorite over Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday
• The Rebels are playing their third game in three days after upsetting Texas and Georgia
• See my Ole Miss vs Alabama expert picks, predictions and betting splits for the March 13 matchup, below

The SEC Tournament quarterfinals continue Friday night with No. 15 seed Ole Miss (14-19, 6-14 SEC) facing No. 2 seed Alabama (23-8, 13-5 SEC) at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.

Online sportsbooks have installed the Crimson Tide as 11.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds. Alabama enters fresh off a double-bye, while Ole Miss is riding momentum from back-to-back upsets over Texas (76-66) and Georgia (76-72).

The action tips off at 7 pm ET with SEC Network providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Ole Miss vs Alabama expert picks, predictions and betting splits.

Ole Miss vs Alabama Expert Picks

Best Bet: Alabama -11.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

My top Ole Miss vs Alabama pick is laying the points with the Crimson Tide. The fatigue factor is real here. Ole Miss is playing its third game in three days, while Alabama is completely rested after a double-bye.

When these teams met on Feb. 11 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama dominated 93-74. That 19-point win comfortably covered this number. The Rebels have also lost at Auburn 85-79, at Tennessee 84-66, and at Texas 79-68 in conference road and neutral games this year.

Alabama’s offense is simply too explosive for a gassed Ole Miss squad to contain. The Crimson Tide scored 96 against Auburn, 100 against Mississippi State, and 117 against Arkansas in their last three home games. They’ll push pace and exploit tired legs in the second half.

Total Pick: Over 163 (-110 at Fanatics)

The first meeting produced 167 combined points (93-74), clearing this total. Alabama plays fast and shoots aggressively from deep early in the shot clock.

Ole Miss has been involved in high-scoring affairs lately too. Their double-OT loss to LSU on Feb. 25 hit 205 combined points. The Vanderbilt game on March 3 reached 175 combined (86-89 OT). Even the tournament games have been productive: 76-66 vs Texas and 76-72 vs Georgia.

The over is 5-0 in Alabama’s last five neutral-site games. The over is also 13-3 in the Crimson Tide’s last 16 games after scoring 90+ in their previous outing, which applies after the 96-84 win over Auburn.

Prop Pick: James Scott Over Rebounds

Ole Miss forward James Scott has been feasting on the glass during the SEC Tournament. He grabbed 13 boards against Georgia and 9 against Texas in the first two rounds.

Scott is averaging 7.0 rebounds per game over his last five, nearly double his 4.3 season average. He’s back in the starting lineup and logging heavy minutes with the Rebels fighting for their lives.

Alabama chucks threes early in the shot clock, which creates long rebounds. Scott at 6’10” should eat on the glass. Whatever line books set, lean the over.

Ole Miss vs Alabama Predictions

Prediction: Alabama Wins Big

My Ole Miss vs Alabama prediction is a comfortable Crimson Tide victory, something in the range of 89-74. Alabama’s rest advantage and offensive firepower are too much for a fatigued Rebels squad playing their third straight day.

The Rebels have talent. Malik Dia scored 17 points against Georgia, and Travis Perry added 16. But Ole Miss is 0-6 against AP Top-25 teams this season and just 1-11 against the Top 50. The leap in competition against NCAA Tournament-bound Alabama is massive.

Alabama’s Labaron Philon Jr. (21 points in his last game), Aden Holloway (21 points), and Amari Allen (16 points) give the Crimson Tide three double-figure scorers who can all create their own shot. Expect them to attack early and often against tired legs.

Key Statistical Metrics: Ole Miss vs Alabama

Ole Miss vs Alabama Betting Splits

The Ole Miss vs Alabama betting splits reveal a classic sharp vs public divide on the spread.

On the spread, 45.43% of tickets are grabbing the 11.5 points with Ole Miss. Casual bettors love a Cinderella story, and back-to-back upsets make the Rebels an easy click. However, 72.45% of the actual money is laying the points with Alabama. When the money heavily outweighs the tickets on the favorite, it signals sharp action.

The moneyline is completely one-sided. Alabama has ballooned from -481 to -826, with the overwhelming majority of money backing the Crimson Tide to advance.

The total hasn’t seen the same sharp vs public split. Both tickets and money are relatively balanced on the 163.5 number, though the over trends for both teams point toward points.

Ole Miss vs Alabama Odds

Odds as of March 13. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on college basketball.

The moneyline odds give Alabama an implied win probability around 89%. A $20 bet on the Crimson Tide at -826 would return just $2.42 in profit, while a $20 flier on Ole Miss at +560 pays out $112 if the Rebels pull off the upset. Given the extreme juice, the spread is the only realistic way to back Alabama.