Picks, Best Bets & How to Watch Alabama vs Tennessee (Feb 28)

• Tennessee beat Alabama in January and is a 4.5-point home favorite today
• Alabama has won seven games in a row
• Our model identifies the best value for Alabama at Tennessee

No. 22 Tennessee goes for the season sweep this evening when it hosts No. 17 Alabama. Tip-off is set for 6 pm, ET (ESPN).

On Jan. 24, Tennessee dominated Alabama in the second half to secure a 79-73 victory.

Both teams are looking up at SEC leader Florida, but today’s game will impact SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament seeding.

Tennessee (20-8, 10-5 SEC) is coming off a loss at Missouri. Alabama (21-7, 11-4 SEC) has won 7 in a row.

Both are led by elite scorers: Alabama’s Labaron Philon Jr. (21.3 points per contest) and Tennessee’s Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18.1 PPG) and Nate Ament (17.9 PPG).

This analysis identifies the key trends and metrics and offers the best bets for Alabama at Tennessee on Feb. 28.

Tennessee vs Alabama Best Bets & Props

Spread Pick: Tennessee Volunteers -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

While fading an Alabama team that has won seven straight is daunting, the situational spot heavily favors Tennessee. The Volunteers boast a suffocating 14-1 straight-up (SU) record at home this season, turning Knoxville into one of the most difficult venues in college basketball for opposing offenses.

The Vols also have confidence in their ability to slow down Alabama’s offense after holding the Tide to 73 points in their January victory in Tuscaloosa.

The mismatch that decides this number is in the paint. Tennessee’s Felix Okpara is an elite rim protector, averaging 2.15 blocks per game and altering countless shots near the basket. Alabama relies heavily on the offensive production of Labaron Philon Jr. (21.3 PPG) and Aden Holloway (16.9 PPG), both of whom do significant damage attacking the rim and the midrange. Okpara’s presence allows Tennessee’s perimeter defenders, like Ja’Kobi Gillespie (1.89 steals per game), to press high on the ball, knowing they have a safety valve behind them.

Alabama has been scoring at will, but they struggled against the Vols, who bothered Bama’s perimeter shooters enough to force an off-night (6-for-26 on three-pointers. Expect Tennessee to control the pace, force Alabama into contested jump shots, and cover the number late with free throws from reliable shooters like Gillespie (81.1% FT).

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Over/Under Pick: Under 165.5 (-115 DraftKings)

The total is set at a lofty 165.5 at DraftKings (higher than the consensus), anticipating a shootout. However, there is significant value on the Under. While both teams possess high-octane offenses — Alabama’s Philon Jr. shoots over 50% from the field and Tennessee’s Gillespie averages 18.1 points — postseason-style intensity often leads to extended half-court possessions and tighter defensive rotations.

Both squads possess the personnel to wreck offensive game plans:

• Rim Protection: This game features two of the conference’s premier shot blockers. Tennessee’s Okpara denies 2.15 shots per game, while Alabama’s Aiden Sherrell is even more prolific, averaging 2.26 blocks per contest.
• Perimeter Lockdown: Tennessee’s defense generates havoc, with Gillespie and Nate Ament combining for over 3.3 steals per game.

When two teams with this much length and athleticism collide, easy baskets in transition disappear. A final score in the 78-74 range is more probable than a race to 85, keeping this comfortably under the total.

Public Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting trends for this SEC showdown reveal a fascinating divergence between public perception and significant money flow, particularly on the moneyline. As tip-off approaches, the market paints a clear picture of how bettors are valuing Alabama’s recent winning streak against Tennessee’s home-court dominance.

Spread Trends

The betting public has taken a definitive stance on the spread, overwhelmingly backing the road underdog. A staggering 86.7% of spread bets are on Alabama, and the handle backs up that sentiment with 84.36% of the money flowing toward the visitors.

This creates a highly contrarian scenario for our recommended bet of Tennessee -4.5. With the vast majority of the market expecting a close game or an Alabama victory, backing the Volunteers requires fading a massive consensus.

Moneyline: Sharp vs. Public Split

A classic “Sharp vs. Public” divide has emerged on the moneyline, fitting the criteria where ticket count and handle heavily favor opposing sides.

• The Public View: The average bettor expects Tennessee to hold serve at home, with 67.2% of the tickets on Tennessee to win straight up.
• The Sharp View: Despite the lower ticket volume, larger wagers are hunting the upset value. Alabama has commanded 81.81% of the money, suggesting that high-stakes bettors are banking on the Tide extending their seven-game win streak.

Total Trends

Regarding the total of 162.5, the market shows a slight alignment with our prediction for a defensive battle. While the split is more balanced than the sides, the lean is towards the Under, which has attracted 55.85% of the bets and 58.21% of the money. This indicates that the betting market agrees with the assessment that postseason intensity could slow the pace of these two high-powered offenses.

How to Watch Tennessee vs Alabama

This Alabama at Tennessee Top-25 showdown tips off at 6 pm, ET, and will be broadcast nationally by ESPN.

Tennessee vs Alabama Stats Comparison

Tennessee vs Alabama Odds

• Moneyline: Tennessee -225 | Alabama +184
• Spread: Tennessee -4.5 (-115) | Alabama +4.5 (-105)
• Total: Over/Under 162.5 (-110)

Odds as of February 27, 2026, at 7:37 PM ET from consensus sportsbooks. They are subject to change.

The betting market for this SEC clash reflects confidence in Tennessee’s home-court advantage, despite Alabama’s better AP and RPI ranking. The line has drifted slightly in Tennessee’s favor since opening, moving from -4 to -4.5, while the consensus total has seen a downward adjustment from an opener of 164.5 to 162.5, suggesting sharp money respects the defensive capabilities of the Volunteers.

Based on the current moneyline odds, the implied probability (vig-free) gives Tennessee a 66.3% chance of winning the game outright, compared to a 33.7% chance for Alabama.

For bettors looking to play the straight moneyline, the payout difference is significant. A $20 wager on the favorite Tennessee would yield a total payout of $28.89 (including stake), while the same $20 bet on the underdog Alabama would return $56.80 if they pull off the road upset.