Picks, Predictions & Odds: Indiana vs Kentucky (Dec 13)

• The 6-4 Kentucky Wildcats are favored by 3.5 points over the 8-2 Indiana Hoosiers Saturday evening
• 86% of bettors are wagering on Kentucky to emerge victorious on the moneyline
• See my Indiana vs Kentucky picks, predictions, and best bets, plus the latest odds and betting splits

A marquee non-conference clash is set for Rupp Arena as the Indiana Hoosiers (8-2, 6-4 ATS) take on the Kentucky Wildcats (6-4, 4-6 ATS) in Lexington, Kentucky, at 7:30 pm ET with a national broadcast on ESPN.

Despite having two fewer victories compared to their adversaries, the Wildcats are modest betting favorites in the first duel between these two squads since 2016. This is the start of rekindling a rivalry in a four-year series of battles between these two schools.

Indiana vs Kentucky Picks, Prediction & Best Bets

ATS Pick: Indiana +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Indiana’s offense is led by the two-headed monster of senior guard Lamar Wilkerson (18.8 PPG) and senior forward Tucker DeVries (17.2 PPG). Wilkerson is coming off a career-high 44 points on an astounding 16-of-22 shooting against Penn State, leading to a 41-point romp by IU.

Kentucky counters with a balanced attack featuring a quintet of players averaging double-digit points. Senior guard Otega Oweh leads the group with 14.4 PPG, and he posted a season-high 21 points on 9-of-12 from the floor last time competing. Senior guard Denzel Aberdeen is second in scoring (12.4 PPG), and leads the roster with 3.5 assists per game.

In the NCAA Tournament champion odds, both are longshots to win the March Madness, with Kentucky +5000 and Indiana +7500. I like the Hoosiers to cover with UK losing to all four ranked teams in the top-25 by an average of 15.8 points.

Game-Total Best Bet: Under 161 Total Points (-122) at BetRivers

Like the public, I’m going with the under hitting in this contest. Our SBD model for this battle has the Hoosiers pulling off the upset 78.5-76.8 in the Indiana vs Kentucky odds. That would point to a total of 155 points being scored in this one.

In six of the last seven duels for Kentucky, their games have resulted in fewer than a combined 161 points being scored. As for Indiana, that number holds true in five of the last seven outings. Sharps have 59% of the handle on the under points total, with strong defense holding the total lower.

Indiana vs Kentucky Odds

The Indiana/Kentucky spread ranges from 2.5 to 3.5 in the College Basketball odds. The best ATS price on the Wildcats is -2.5 (-120) at FanDuel, while the best ATS price on the Hoosiers is +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM. The line opened with Kentucky as 4.5-point favorites, but that was chopped down to 2.5 at FanDuel, and now it’s risen to 3.5.

On the moneyline, the best UK price is -148 at BetRivers. The longest odds on an IU win are +143 at Caesars.

The game total still ranges from 158.5 (-110) at Fanatics and 161.5 (-122) at BetRivers.

Odds commentary as of 1:15 pm ET Dec. 13. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the lines before tip-off.

Indiana vs Kentucky Public-Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting splits show a firm stance on this marquee matchup, overwhelmingly siding with Kentucky. An analysis of the splits shows heavy action on the Wildcats to win outright.

Moneyline: Kentucky is attracting a staggering 86% of all moneyline bets, though that’s down from 91% on Friday. More importantly, they account for an even more dominant 95% of the money wagered, indicating that larger, sharper wagers are backing UK to win.

Spread: The public’s faith on the point spread extends to the underdog Hoosiers. A strong majority of bettors (57%) are laying the points with Indiana, along with 60% of ATS handle.

Total: The over/under is seeing more balanced action, but there’s a clear preference for points. The Under is drawing 54% of the bets and 59% of the money, suggesting a public lean towards a lower-scoring game.

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Hoosiers vs Wildcats Statistical Breakdown

Mark Pope, in his second season at the helm for UK, has struggled against top teams, losing all four this year versus top-25 clubs. The most glaring statistical mismatch lies in rebound control, as the Wildcats average nearly six more boards per outing than their adversaries. However, Indiana has more assists per game and a better turnover margin than their counterparts.

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