Picks & Predictions for Oklahoma vs Baylor (Crown Semifinals)

• Oklahoma is a 1.5-point underdog in the College Basketball Crown semifinals versus Baylor
• The Sooners are playing some of their best ball of the season, winning seven of their last 10 games
• My best picks and predictions for the Oklahoma vs Baylor Crown semifinal matchup can be found below

March Madness isn’t the only college hoops tournament on the docket today, as the College Basketball Crown semifinals are set to take place in Sin City. Matchup number one features Oklahoma vs Baylor, with the Sooners catching 1.5 points in the college basketball odds.

Baylor is looking to finish the season on a high note after posting a disappointing 17-16 overall record, with a 6-12 Big 12 mark. Oklahoma meanwhile, arrives with a 20-15 overall record after navigating a grueling SEC schedule where they finished 11th at 7-11.

Below, you’ll find my favorite picks and predictions for the Oklahoma vs Baylor Crown semifinal matchup, plus analysis behind each selection.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Picks

• Oklahoma Moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Comparing how these two programs stack up, their regular-season statistical profiles sheds light on where the true edges lie. I always look at how teams are performing in the moment, and the most glaring mismatch here is recent form.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Stats

Oklahoma is hitting its stride at the perfect time, boasting a 7-3 record (70% win rate) over their last 10 games. Navigating the late-season gauntlet of the SEC requires serious resilience, and this late-season surge demonstrates their ability to close out tight games against premium competition.

On the flip side, Baylor limped through the back half of their Big 12 campaign. Baylor managed just a 33.3% win rate in conference play (6-12) and a lackluster 40% success rate (4-6) over their final 10 matchups.

For those reasons, I’m rolling with Oklahoma on the moneyline. While both squads boast incredibly similar statistical footprints—Oklahoma slightly edges Baylor in offensive production (82.9 PPG to 82.1 PPG), while Baylor holds a marginal advantage defensively (76.3 PAPG to 77.3 PAPG)—the ability to grind out 20 total wins provides far more confidence in a tight environment.

Oklahoma has learned how to win crucial games, and hung tough versus top NCAA Tournament championship odds contenders, while Baylor has effectively fallen off a cliff against quality opponents.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Predictions

• Under 158.5 (-110 at Bet365)

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $365 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $10
GET $365

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

For the total, I am locking in Under 158.5. Neutral-site games in massive venues like T-Mobile Arena often introduce unfamiliar shooting sightlines, which historically suppresses early scoring efficiency. Furthermore, in elimination-style atmospheres, defensive intensity skyrockets, breeding deliberate, time-consuming offensive possessions.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Betting Splits

Analyzing the college basketball public betting ticket counts and financial handles offers vital clues into how a market is shaping up before tip-off.

The betting public firmly agrees with my recommendation to back Oklahoma outright. Oklahoma is currently commanding 63% of the moneyline tickets and an even stronger 70% of the total stake. The heavier concentration of money compared to ticket volume suggests that larger bettors are extremely confident in Oklahoma advancing.

With a razor-thin spread in this neutral-site battle, the ATS market is noticeably more balanced. Oklahoma has a slight edge, taking in 52% of the spread bets and 53% of the total money.

The total is where my analysis diverges sharply from the public consensus. While I am pounding the Under based on the elimination-game atmosphere and neutral-site shooting environments, the betting public is overwhelmingly expecting a shootout. A massive 83% of the bets and 82% of the money are pouring in on the Over. By rolling with the Under, I am actively fading the heavily backed public narrative. Line movement and public money do not equal value, and eating the chalk on a massive total in an unfamiliar arena is a classic trap I am happy to avoid.

How to Watch Oklahoma vs Baylor

Tip off for the Baylor vs Oklahoma contest is set for 10:30 am PT, 1:30 pm PT from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.