Pittsburgh vs NC State Predictions, Picks & Odds for ACC Tournament (March 11)

• NC State is an 8.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh in the ACC Tournament second round on Wednesday
• The Panthers upset Stanford 64-63 in the first round behind Barry Dunning Jr.’s 16 points
• See my Pittsburgh vs NC State predictions, picks and odds for the March 11 matchup, below

The ACC Tournament continues Wednesday with No. 15 seed Pittsburgh (13-19, 5-13 ACC) facing No. 7 seed NC State (19-12, 10-8 ACC) in a second-round matchup at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte.

Online sportsbooks have installed the Wolfpack as 8.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds. NC State enters on a brutal four-game losing streak, while Pittsburgh is riding momentum from Tuesday’s upset win over Stanford.

The action tips off at 12 pm ET with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Pittsburgh vs NC State predictions, picks and odds.

Pittsburgh vs NC State Predictions and Picks

Prediction: NC State Wins, But Pitt Covers

I expect the Wolfpack to advance, but 8.5 points is too many to lay against a Pittsburgh team playing with house money. The Panthers have nothing to lose and just proved they can grind out a tournament game. My Pittsburgh vs NC State prediction is for the Wofpack to win 74-68.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh +8.5 (-110 at bet365)

I’m backing the points with the Panthers for my Pitt vs NC State best bet. The underdog has covered in six of the last eight meetings between these programs. That trend matters, especially when you consider NC State’s current form.

The Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost to Stanford by one, got blown out by Duke 93-64, fell to Notre Dame in overtime, and got embarrassed by Virginia 90-61. This is not a team peaking at the right time.

Pittsburgh meanwhile is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games. Barry Dunning Jr. has been sensational, logging 40 minutes against Stanford while posting 16 points, 8 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. He shot 7-for-10 from the floor and provides elite two-way production.

The Panthers dominated the glass in the first round, outrebounding Stanford 37-27 on the offensive boards. Roman Siulepa (14 points, 7 rebounds) and Cameron Corhen (12 points, 7 rebounds) give Pitt legitimate size to compete inside.

Key Statistical Metrics: Pittsburgh vs NC State

NC State is on the NCAA Tournament bubble, which creates pressure. A loss here could sink their at-large hopes entirely. Pittsburgh has no such burden and can play freely.

Total Pick: Under 144.5 (-110 at bet365)

Another one of my Nc State vs Pittsburgh predictions is for the Under to cash. This total opened at 146.5 and has been bet down to 144.5. Sharp money sees a defensive grind coming.

Pittsburgh played Tuesday and will be running on tired legs. The Panthers leaned heavily on a short rotation against Stanford, with four starters logging 35+ minutes. That fatigue should slow the pace considerably.

The under is 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Panthers surrendered just 63 points in the first round and have the defensive intensity to keep this low.

Pittsburgh vs NC State Public Betting

The betting public is creating an interesting split on this game.

On the spread, Pittsburgh is commanding 63.1% of tickets and a robust 71.96% of the money. When the handle exceeds the ticket count by that margin, it signals sharper bettors are backing the underdog. The line has actually moved from -7.5 to -8.5 in NC State’s favor, but the money keeps flowing toward Pitt.

The total tells a different story. A massive 83.17% of tickets and 79.9% of the money are hammering the over. This creates a contrarian opportunity on the under, especially with the line dropping from 146.5 to 144.5. Books are comfortable taking over money, which suggests the under is the sharper side.

On the moneyline, NC State is absorbing 94.11% of tickets and 86.74% of the money. The public expects the Wolfpack to survive, even if they cover the spread.

Pittsburgh vs NC State Odds

Odds as of March 11. New customers can claim the bet365 bonus code and get a bonus to bet on college basketball.

The moneyline odds give NC State an implied win probability around 78%. A $20 bet on the Wolfpack at -350 would return just $5.71 in profit, while a $20 flier on Pittsburgh at +285 pays out $57 if the Panthers pull off the upset. Given NC State’s recent struggles, the value sits with the spread at bet365.