Predictions & Picks for Louisville vs SMU on Feb 17

• No. 21 Louisville beat SMU 88-74 on Jan. 31
• Our analysis projects an offensive showcase that challenges the posted total
• We identify the best bets for Louisville at SMU

No. 21 Louisville travels to face SMU tonight looking to sweep the season series. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (ESPN2).

Louisville (19-6, 8-4 ACC) is hot, having won five in a row — a streak that started with an 88-74 victory over SMU on Jan. 31.

SMU (17-8, 6-6 ACC) enters as a home underdog, looking to rebound from a recent collapse against Syracuse and climb back up the crowded conference standings.

We analyze the odds, dissect key statistical discrepancies, and identify the most valuable wagers for Louisville at SMU.

Louisville vs SMU Betting Picks & Predictions

Sportsbooks have installed the visiting Cardinals as moderate favorites, respecting the their recent dominance and superior defensive metrics. Below, we detail our handicapping for the spread, total, and player props.

The Pick: Louisville -3.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

The Cardinals are peaking, evidenced by a five-game winning streak where they have posted an average margin of victory of +17 points. This run includes a neutral-site victory over Baylor and a demolition of NC State, driven by an offense that is clicking on all cylinders.

They beat SMU by 14, which obviously builds confidence.

SMU is 13-2 at home, but the Mustangs’ defensive frailties are likely to be exposed by Louisville’s depth. SMU allows 77.6 points per game — nearly seven points worse than Louisville’s defensive average. The Mustangs are also coming off a morale-damaging loss where they blew a double-digit lead, raising questions about their composure in crunch time.

Louisville freshman standout Mikel Brown Jr., who recently dropped 45 points against NC State, joins Ryan Conwell (18.7 PPG) to form a backcourt that is simply outperforming their counterparts in efficiency. We expect Louisville’s superior two-way play to cover this manageable number on the road.

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Total Prediction: Over 166.0 (-115 at Bet365)

These teams combined for 162 points in Round 1. Although 166.0 is a substantial number, the pace metrics and shot profiles necessitate a look at the Over. This contest features elite offensive output on both sides: Louisville averages 86.9 points per game, while SMU trails closely at 86.2 PPG.

The matchup features three of the ACC’s most dynamic scoring guards. SMU’s Boopie Miller (18.9 PPG) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.4 PPG) are high-volume shooters who thrive in transition. Louisville counters with Conwell and Brown, who have shown a propensity for three-point barrages. Furthermore, both teams rank in the bottom half of the conference in preventing transition opportunities. With elite shot-making on the floor and neither coach likely to pump the brakes, this game has the ingredients of a track meet that climbs into the 80s for both sides.

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Public Betting Data

The college basketball public betting splits for this ACC clash reveal a decisive preference from the betting public, with the road favorite drawing overwhelming support. Bettors are aligning with our analysis regarding the spread, though a divergence exists regarding the total.

Spread & Moneyline: Heavy Traffic on the Cardinals

There is little hesitation in the market regarding the superior side entering Tuesday night. The moneyline splits are stark, with 94.36% of the total handle backing Louisville to win outright.

This confidence extends to the spread, where Louisville is commanding 73.28% of the handle on 63.47% of the tickets. This discrepancy indicates that larger, sharper wagers are landing on the Cardinals to cover the -3.5 line. The market is effectively fading the “Moody Magic” narrative, betting that Louisville’s current form outweighs SMU’s home-court advantage.

Total: A Contrarian Stance on the Over

While our analysis points toward a shootout, the betting public is largely fading the high total. Currently, 61.64% of the money and 59.15% of the tickets are on the Under.

This creates a distinct contrarian opportunity for the Over 166.0. The public often shies away from totals approaching 170 in conference play due to familiarity breeding better defense. However, given the specific defensive lapses of SMU and the pace Louisville prefers, we are comfortable betting against the grain here.

Louisville vs SMU Team Stats Comparison

When breaking down the metrics, it becomes clear why the oddsmakers have set such a high total.

A deeper look into player utilization reveals potential fatigue concerns for the hosts. Boopie Miller plays a staggering 34.8 minutes per game with a high usage rate (24.63%). Against a Louisville team with a deeper rotation that applies full-court pressure, this heavy workload could lead to tired legs in the closing minutes, further supporting the Louisville cover.

Louisville vs SMU Odds

The latest consensus betting lines for Tuesday night’s matchup at Moody Coliseum are listed below.

• Moneyline: Louisville -187 | SMU +155
• Spread: Louisville -3.5 (-114) | SMU +3.5 (-107)
• Total: Over 166.5 (-112) | Under 166.5 (-108)

Odds as of February 17, 2026, from consensus.

The market has moved slightly in Louisville’s favor, shifting from an opener of -2.5 to -3.5. This line movement aligns with the heavy influx of money on the road team.

Implied Win Probabilities

Removing the vigorish allows us to see the true expectations implied by the odds:

• Louisville: 62.4%
• SMU: 37.6%

Betting Payouts

For bettors playing the moneyline, here is the potential return on a standard wager:

• A $20 bet on Louisville (-187) to win outright would yield a profit of $10.70, for a total payout of $30.70.
• A $20 bet on SMU (+155) to pull off the upset would yield a profit of $31.00, for a total payout of $51.00.