Purdue vs Arizona Prediction, Prop Picks & Best Bets for Elite Eight Matchup

• No. 1 Arizona is a 5.5-point favorite over No. 2 Purdue in Saturday’s West Regional Final, with the line dropping from its 6.5 open
• The Wildcats have won 12 straight and are 28-0 as a favorite this season
• Keep reading for my Purdue vs Arizona prediction, prop picks and best bets for the March 28 Elite Eight matchup

Two conference tournament champions. Two of the most efficient offenses in America. One trip to the Final Four. No. 2 Purdue (30-8) travels west to face No. 1 Arizona (35-2) in the West Regional Final at the SAP Center in San Jose.

Arizona hammered fourth-seeded Arkansas 109-88 in the Sweet 16, while Purdue needed a Trey Kaufman-Renn putback at the buzzer to edge 11th-seeded Texas 79-77. The Wildcats are 5.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds, down from a 6.5 open. That line movement is worth paying attention to.

Tip-off is 8:49 PM ET on TBS/truTV. Here are my Purdue vs Arizona prediction, prop picks and best bets.

Purdue vs Arizona Prediction

ATS Pick: Arizona -5.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

My Purdue vs Arizona prediction has the Wildcats winning and covering. Arizona is simply the more complete team, and the gap between these two rosters is wider than 5.5 points. Here’s one that stands out: Purdue is 0-9 all-time against No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats are 28-0 as a favorite this season. They’ve covered four straight, including margins of 5, 34, 12, and 21 in their tournament run. Arizona’s 109 against Arkansas was the most points ever scored by a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16, and six different Wildcats scored 10+ in that game.

Key Statistical Metrics: Purdue vs Arizona

The rebounding edge is massive. Arizona grabs 38.50 boards per game (27th) to Purdue’s 30.43 (184th). Freshman Koa Peat and junior Motiejus Krivas control the paint, and Purdue’s front court struggled on the glass against Texas.

Arizona also gets to the free throw line at an elite rate. The Wildcats attempt 21.50 free throws per game (27th nationally) compared to Purdue’s 14.00 (143rd). That’s 7.5 extra free throw attempts per game. In a close game, that volume alone can account for the spread.

The Wildcats are also 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games, while Purdue is 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss. Arizona’s 28-2-1 ATS record this season is one of the best in the country.

Game-Total Pick: Over 152.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Both of these offenses are operating at an elite level, and the trends are screaming over. The over has hit in four of Purdue’s last four neutral site games, four of Arizona’s last four after scoring 100+, and 12 of Arizona’s last 14 after scoring 90+.

Arizona shoots a ridiculous 45.78% from three, 13th in the nation. They just put up 109 on Arkansas. Purdue is 14th in field goal percentage and has the 10th-most assists per game in America thanks to Braden Smith’s elite playmaking. I’d project a final around Arizona 82, Purdue 75.

Purdue vs Arizona Prop Picks

Purdue vs Arizona Prop Pick: Brayden Burries Over 16.5 Points

My favorite Purdue vs Arizona prop targets the Wildcats’ leading scorer. Burries averages 16.2 points per game and has exceeded 16.5 in three of his last four outings. He just dropped 23 on Arkansas while shooting 7-of-11.

Purdue ranks 288th in opponent three-point percentage since the start of January. Burries shoots 39.5% from deep and has knocked down multiple threes in six of his last seven. This is a premier matchup for him to go off.

Purdue vs Arizona Best Bets

Moneyline Pick: Arizona (-240 at BetMGM)

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The top Purdue vs Arizona best bet is the Wildcats straight up. Arizona is the current title favorite in the March Madness championship odds and they’re the most well-rounded roster left in the field. One thing to monitor:

Arizona has lost five straight Elite Eight appearances, and Purdue leads the all-time series 8-5. But this Wildcats team is a different animal than those past squads.

Matt Painter’s Boilermakers barely survived Texas on a last-second putback, and they’re 0-9 historically against top seeds. Trey Kaufman-Renn is 6-0 in tournament games when he scores 15+, but the Wildcats’ interior size with Peat and Krivas should limit his looks at the rim.

Purdue vs Arizona Odds

The Purdue vs Arizona odds have tightened since opening at 6.5. FanDuel has Arizona at -5.5 (-104), while DraftKings still lists the Wildcats at -6.5 with Purdue at +6.5 (-115). That full point of spread difference matters. The moneyline sits at -240 for Arizona and +228 for Purdue.

The total is even more split. DraftKings has the over at 151.5 (-115), while FanDuel posts the under at 153.5 (-120). If you’re riding the over like I am, grabbing 151.5 at DraftKings is the sharper play.

At -240, a $100 bet on Arizona returns $141.67. A $100 flier on Purdue’s +228 moneyline pays $328. Follow along with the printable March Madness bracket as the Elite Eight wraps up.