Purdue vs Indiana Expert Picks & Predictions (Jan 27)

• No. 12 Purdue has lost two games in a row but is a road favorite at Indiana
• Analysis backs Purdue -4.5 and Over 151.5 points
• Public betting shows overwhelming support for Purdue with 96% of money backing the Boilermakers

No. 12 Purdue is suddenly reeling after losing back-to-back games.

Motivation won’t be a problem Tuesday night. The Boilermakers (17-3, 7-2 B1G) travel to bitter in-state rival Indiana. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET (Peacock) at Assembly Hall.

Purdue has the upper hand in the series under Matt Painter, but Indiana has beaten the Boilers in three of their past four games at Assembly Hall.

The unranked Hoosiers (13-7, 4-5 B1G) recently snapped their four-game losing streak by beating Rutgers. IU is looking for its first win this season vs. a ranked team. To accomplish that tonight, the Hoosiers will have to contain B1G Player of the Year candidate Braden Smith and the Boilers’ dominant frontcourt presence in Oscar Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn.

This analysis examines the most compelling betting angles, player prop opportunities, and statistical edges that could determine the outcome of this heated Big Ten battle.

Purdue vs Indiana Expert Analysis & Best Bets

The Spread: Purdue Boilermakers -4.5 (-102) via DraftKings

Purdue’s elite playmaking advantage through Braden Smith creates the foundation for our confidence in this pick. Smith leads the Big Ten in assists (9.3 per game) while also pacing the league in steals (38 total, tied for first). His defensive disruption capability becomes crucial against Indiana’s turnover-prone backcourt, particularly Tayton Conerway, who ranks third in the Big Ten with 49 total turnovers at 2.45 per game.

The Boilermakers’ frontcourt dominance presents another significant matchup advantage. Oscar Cluff leads the Big Ten in offensive rebounds with 72 total (tied) and ranks 5th with 155 total boards, while Trey Kaufman-Renn contributes 8.56 rebounds per game (4th in Big Ten). This interior control should generate crucial second-chance opportunities while limiting Indiana’s offensive possessions.

Indiana’s foul trouble compounds its challenges, with Conor Enright leading the Big Ten in personal fouls (65 total, 3.25 average) and Tucker DeVries also accumulating 53 fouls (2.65 average). These tendencies should send Purdue to the line frequently, allowing the Boilers to build and maintain leads through free throw opportunities.

Pick: Purdue -4.5 (-102)

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The Total: Over 151.5 (-110) at Bet365

Both teams feature dynamic scorers capable of pushing this total above the posted number. Indiana’s offensive attack centers around Lamar Wilkerson, who ranks 5th in the Big Ten averaging 19.4 points per game while shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc. Tucker DeVries adds 14.6 points per contest.

Purdue counters with balanced offensive threats led by Smith’s 15.2 points per game, complemented by Fletcher Loyer’s 12.7 points on 37.4% three-point shooting and elite 90.2% free throw accuracy. The frontcourt duo of Cluff and Kaufman-Renn combines for over 24 points per game.

The turnover dynamics between these teams should create additional possessions and fast-break opportunities. Smith’s steal production (1.9 per game) and Conerway’s giveaways (2.45 per game) suggest transition scoring chances that could inflate the total. Indiana’s fouling tendencies will also contribute additional free throw attempts throughout the contest.

Pick: Over 151.5 (-110)

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Betting Market Analysis & Public Money Trends

Current college basketball pubic betting sentiment reveals overwhelming confidence in Purdue’s ability to handle Indiana on the road.

Moneyline and Spread Action

Public backing for Purdue reaches extreme levels with 96.03% of total money supporting the Boilermakers on the moneyline, while Indiana attracts only 3.97% of dollars wagered. The bet count distribution follows a similar pattern, with 83.14% of individual wagers placed on Purdue versus 16.86% for Indiana.

This consensus between bet volume and dollar amounts indicates alignment across different bettor demographics, from casual recreational players to larger stakeholders. The overwhelming support validates our analytical confidence in Purdue -4.5, suggesting the market recognizes the Boilermakers’ superior talent and statistical advantages despite their recent struggles.

Total Points Market Movement

The scoring total also shows clear directional bias toward the over, with 65.75% of money backing the higher-scoring outcome compared to 34.25% on the under. Individual bet distribution mirrors this sentiment at 63.16% over versus 36.84% under.

This alignment supports our Over 151.5 selection, as both casual observers and sophisticated bettors anticipate an offensive showcase featuring the scoring talents of Wilkerson, Smith, Loyer, and others. The market expects both teams’ offensive capabilities to overcome any defensive adjustments in this rivalry setting.

The convergence of public and sharp money on both our primary selections provides additional validation for backing Purdue to cover and the total to exceed expectations.

Purdue vs Indiana Team Stats

Who has the edge Tuesday night in Bloomington?

Purdue vs Indiana Individual Impact

Purdue’s frontcourt dominance through Kaufman-Renn (8.56 RPG) and Cluff (7.75 RPG) creates substantial rebounding advantages over Indiana’s top boards gatherers DeVries and Sam Alexis (both 5.0 RPG). The offensive rebounding disparity becomes particularly pronounced, with Kaufman-Renn (3.22 ORPG) and Cluff (3.6 ORPG) capable of generating crucial second-chance opportunities.

Smith’s elite distribution (9.3 APG, Big Ten leader) paired with his defensive disruption (1.9 SPG) creates a two-way impact that Indiana struggles to match.

These statistical mismatches, particularly in rebounding, playmaking, and strength of schedule, reinforce our confidence in Purdue -4.5 and validate the Over 151.5 total given both teams’ offensive capabilities.

Purdue vs Indiana Odds

Odds as of January 26, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC from consensus sportsbooks.

The moneyline pricing reflects Purdue’s status as clear favorites despite its recent two-game skid, with oddsmakers accounting for the Boilers’ superior season-long performance and statistical advantages. Indiana’s home-court provides enough value to keep the Hoosiers competitive on the spread, though the 4.5-point line suggests limited confidence in the Hoosiers’ ability to match Purdue’s talent level.

The total of 151.5 points indicates expectations for a moderately high-scoring affair, accounting for both teams’ offensive capabilities while recognizing potential defensive adjustments in a rivalry setting.

Vig-Free Probabilities:

• Purdue Boilermakers: 67.21% implied win probability
• Indiana Hoosiers: 32.79% implied win probability

For moneyline wagering, a $20 bet on Purdue (-205) would return $29.76 total ($9.76 profit), while a $20 wager on Indiana (+168) would yield $53.60 total ($33.60 profit) if the Hoosiers spring the upset. Similarly, $10 bets would profit $4.88 on Purdue or $16.80 on Indiana respectively.Vig-Free Probabilities:

• Purdue Boilermakers: 64.30% implied win probability
• Indiana Hoosiers: 35.70% implied win probability