#2 Purdue vs #15 Queens Expert Picks & Predictions (March 20)

Published: March 20, 2026 at 5:15 pm EDT

Purdue opens NCAA Tournament play against Queens. — Mar 19, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter talks with the media during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Purdue enters this West Region first-round matchup as a massive 25.5-point favorite
Our betting analysis targets the Under 162.5, fading a heavy public consensus
A sharp vs. public money divide highlights significant high-stakes action backing the underdog to cover

No. 2 seed Purdue (27-8) starts its NCAA Tournament journey tonight against No. 15 seed Queens (21-13) in the West Region. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:35 pm, ET, in St. Louis, Missouri, with national broadcast coverage on truTV.

Purdue won the Big Ten Tournament to extend its NCAA Tournament streak to 11. Queens captured the ASUN Tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time.

Zero surprise, Purdue is a massive favorite tonight.

Our analysis breaks down the key metrics and trends and identifies the best bets for Purdue vs. Queens. Let’s dissect the numbers.

Purdue vs Queens Predictions & Best Bets

When breaking down a matchup with a spread this wide, finding betting value requires looking past the outright winner. The moneyline currently sits at a staggering -11111 for Purdue, offering zero actionable value for straight bettors. Instead, our focus turns to the handicap and the total.

The Pick: Queens +25.5 (-110 at Bet365)

Laying 25.5 points in a neutral-site tournament game is a massive proposition, and historical data suggests taking the points is the optimal statistical play. The Royals arrive with a fast-paced offensive script that is highly effective when executed; they boast an 89.4% win rate (17-2) against lower-tier competition this season. While Purdue’s defense is a massive step up in class, we expect the Boilermakers to rotate their bench heavily down the stretch if they build a commanding lead, opening the back door for a late Queens cover.

The Pick: Under 162.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Shifting our attention to the overall scoring, the consensus line is set at a sky-high 162.5 points. The justification for fading this massive total is heavily rooted in the team total markets. Purdue’s team total is currently set at 94.5, but the odds are juiced to the under at -122. Similarly, Queens’ team total of 68.5 sees the under favored at -116. With the betting consensus already indicating that both squads are mathematically favored to fall short of their lofty individual scoring benchmarks, playing the full-game Under 162.5 at -108 is the sharpest approach.

March Madness Betting Splits

Analyzing the college basketball public betting splits provides a crucial window into how both casual bettors and high-stakes professionals are approaching this handicap. When dissecting these numbers, prioritizing the handle (the actual money wagered) over the ticket percentage (the number of individual bets placed) reveals where the sharper action lies.

The Spread: Consensus on the Underdog

When it comes to the massive point spread, the betting public and the big money are in lockstep. An overwhelming 91.33% of the handle and 95.75% of the tickets are backing Queens to cover the +25.5 spread. Conversely, a mere 8.67% of the total stake is willing to lay the heavy points with Purdue. Bettors clearly recognize that an inflated spread in a neutral-site tournament game leaves too much room for a late back-door cover.

The Total: Fading the Public

The total market tells a very different story. The action heavily favors a high-scoring affair, with 85.7% of the money and 86.8% of the tickets banking on the Over 162.5. By taking the Under, we are actively fading a massive public consensus. Trusting that the juiced individual team total unders tell a more accurate story than the public’s appetite for a shootout requires a contrarian, data-first mindset.

The Moneyline: A Classic Sharp vs. Public Divide

The most fascinating revelation in the current data lies in the moneyline splits, which present a textbook sharp versus public scenario. A sharp vs. public divide occurs when more than 60% of the ticket count backs one side, while more than 60% of the total money backs the opposite side.

Casual bettors are flocking to Purdue, with 93.43% of the tickets placed on the heavy favorites to win outright—likely the result of bettors using them as a safe anchor in multi-leg parlays. However, a staggering 70.29% of the money is backing Queens on the moneyline. Despite attracting only 6.57% of the total tickets, the massive underdog is commanding the vast majority of the overall cash. This stark contrast indicates that higher-stakes wagers are rolling the dice on an astronomical payout for a historic upset.

Purdue vs Queens Scouting Report

Statistic	Purdue	Queens
Tournament Seed	No. 2 (West)	No. 15 (West)
Overall Record	27-8	21-13
Strength of Schedule (SOS)	0.5767	0.4815
Adjusted Winning Pct (AWP)	0.7427	0.6475
Opponents’ Winning Pct (OWP)	0.5854	0.4747
Opp. Opponents’ Winning Pct (OOWP)	0.5592	0.4951
Neutral Site Record	7-0	3-1
Record vs. Top 25 Teams	5-4	0-3
Record vs. Top 50 Teams	9-7	0-4
Record vs. 151+ Ranked Teams	9-0	17-2

The statistical gulf between these programs is exactly what you would expect in a 2-vs-15 mismatch. Purdue’s Strength of Schedule (0.5767) is vastly superior to Queens’ (0.4815), directly translating to a battle-tested resume against elite competition.

Queens simply does not have the resume to suggest an outright upset is mathematically viable. It is 0-4 vs. the Top 50 and 0-3 vs. the Top 25.

Queens vs Purdue Odds

Moneyline: Purdue -11111 / Queens +2750
Spread: Purdue -25.5 (-110) / Queens +25.5 (-110)
Total: 162.5 (Over -112 / Under -108)

Odds as of March 19, 2026, at 3:41 PM ET from consensus odds.

The current betting board leaves virtually no room for doubt regarding the outright winner, with oddsmakers parking the moneyline at a staggering -11111 for Purdue. When we strip away the sportsbook’s vigorish (the built-in house edge) to find the true normalized probabilities, the sheer magnitude of this mismatch becomes undeniable.

Based on the current odds, the implied probability of a Purdue victory is 99.11%, while Queens sits at 3.51%. Removing the 2.62% market vig gives us the normalized, true-odds probability: a 96.58% chance of Purdue advancing, compared to just a 3.42% chance for Queens to pull off the upset.

To put these astronomical moneyline odds into perspective, a standard $10 wager on Queens at +2750 would yield $275.00 in profit, for a total payout of $285.00. Conversely, placing that exact same $10 bet on the heavily favored Purdue moneyline at -11111 would return a meager $0.09 in profit, resulting in a total payout of just $10.09. Stick to the spread and the derivative totals to find your statistical edge in this West Region showdown.

Check out SBD’s comprehensive March Madness coverage, including:

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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