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#9 Saint Louis vs #1 Michigan Best Picks, Predictions for Round 2 of Midwest Region
By Chris Wright in College Basketball
Published:
- Both teams topped 100 points in Round 1, making the Over 161.5-point total a primary target
- Why Sharp money is heavily backing the underdog to cover the 12.5-point spread
- Our analysis breaks down Michigan vs Saint Louis and recommends the best bets
No. 1 seed Michigan and No. 9 seed Saint Louis breezed into the second round of the NCAA Tournament, each topping 100 points in comfortable wins on Thursday.
They’ll meet today in the second round of the Midwest Region with a spot in the Sweet 16 at stake. Tip-off is set for 12:10 pm, ET, broadcast nationally on CBS live from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY.
Michigan (32-3) whipped Howard 101-81 and is one win from reaching the Sweet 16 for the seventh time in the past nine events. Saint Louis (29-5) crushed Georgia 102-77, utilizing a balanced attack to set a program tournament record for points scored. The Billikens have never advanced to the Sweet 16 since seeding was adopted.
We break down the key metrics and provide the best bets for today’s second-round game.
Michigan vs Saint Louis Predictions & Best Bets
When breaking down this Midwest Region clash, the sheer interior dominance of Michigan is the most glaring tactical advantage. Four Wolverines average at least 10 points per game, led by Yaxel Lendeborg (14.4). Morez Johnson Jr. poured in 21 with 10 rebounds in the opener. Saint Louis, while incredibly talented offensively, lacks the frontcourt size and defensive efficiency to disrupt a team projected for an 87.5-point team total.
The Pick: Michigan -12.5 ($0.51 per contract at Kalshi)
Prediction site Kalshi offers multiple spread options, but this line matches the consensus odds, and at -104 odds provides a better value.
Given the overwhelming advantages in the paint and elite true shooting efficiency, swallowing the 12.5 points presents significantly better value than a heavily juiced moneyline. Saint Louis guard Dion Brown — who scored 18 points on a 21.2% usage rate in their tournament opener — will need to play flawlessly just to keep his squad within striking distance. Over 40 minutes, the sheer physicality of the favored side should wear down the underdog.
If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)
The Pick: Over 161.5 Total Points (-110 at Bet365)
Take the Over 161.5 in this neutral-site track meet. Both squads have demonstrated explosive offensive capabilities that dictate a frantic, up-and-down pace. Alongside their near-perfect interior scoring, Michigan gets excellent perimeter support from Nimari Burnett, while guard Elliot Cadeau loves to push the tempo, boasting an outstanding 9.0 assist-to-turnover ratio. Saint Louis matches this intensity perfectly; Amari McCottry and Robbie Avila provide highly reliable secondary scoring options that prevent offensive lulls.
And, in case you think the opener was an outlier vs. an overmatched opponent, both teams averaged 87+ points during the regular season.
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Michigan vs Saint Louis Public Betting Splits
In analyzing college basketball public betting trends, the moneyline betting splits for this postseason clash, a textbook sharp versus public narrative emerges.
Casual bettors are overwhelmingly backing the favorite, with 95% of all moneyline tickets placed on Michigan. However, when evaluating the actual cash flow—which is consistently the more valuable metric for identifying professional action—the script flips entirely. Despite receiving just 5% of the betting tickets, Saint Louis commands a massive 60.34% of the overall money wagered. Consequently, Michigan accounts for just 39.66% of the handle.
Because the ticket count drastically favors the favorite (well over the 60% threshold) while the actual money wagered favors the underdog (crossing the 60% threshold at 60.34%), it is abundantly clear that the “smart money” is taking a flyer on the unranked squad.
Comparing these market dynamics to our official predictions offers an interesting contrast. The sheer volume of public tickets aligns perfectly with our expectation that Michigan will ultimately win outright and cover the spread. We are confidently backing them based on their battle-tested resume and interior mismatch. However, the heavy sharp money flowing toward the Saint Louis moneyline serves as a crucial reminder of March volatility. Respected bettors clearly believe this underdog has the offensive firepower to threaten a massive upset.
Saint Louis vs Michigan Odds
- Moneyline: Michigan -909 | Saint Louis +575
- Spread: Michigan -12.5 (-110) | Saint Louis +12.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
Odds as of March 20, 2026, at 8:23 AM ET from consensus sportsbooks.
By stripping away the sportsbook’s built-in edge (the vig), we can calculate the true, normalized probabilities for this second-round clash. Based on the moneyline odds, Michigan holds a dominant 85.88% vig-free probability of winning outright and advancing to the Sweet 16. Conversely, Saint Louis enters the contest with just a 14.12% true probability of pulling off the outright upset.
Placing a standard $10 wager on heavily favored Michigan moneyline returns a meager profit of just $1.10 for a total payout of $11.10. Taking a $10 flyer on the underdog Saint Louis moneyline would net a handsome $57.50 profit, resulting in a total payout of $67.50 if the mid-major program shocks the nation.
Kalshi has ML markets, too. Each Michigan to win contract is $0.88 per, which equates to -733 odds. A $10 investment in these contracts would produce a profit of $2 if the Wolverines win. Saint Louis to win contracts are trading for $0.13 per, or +669 odds. That same $10 investment in Saint Louis to win would produce a $67 profit if the Billikens pull off the massive upset.
In each case, the Kalshi contracts provide more value than the consensus lines at a sportsbook.
Check out SBD’s comprehensive March Madness coverage, including:
- March Madness Expert Bracket Picks
- March Madness Injuries & Absences
- March Madness MOP Odds & Picks
- The Public’s Favorite NCAA Tournament Picks
- March Madness Champion Odds After Selection Sunday
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A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.
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