Sweet 16 Computer Picks – A.I. Predictions for All Games

• I have submitted all Sweet 16 games to our A.I. prediction model
• The computer’s ATS picks are evenly split between favorites and dogs
• Get complete ATS and total predictions for all eight Sweet 16 games

The 2026 Sweet 16 is set for March 26th and 27th. In a chalk-heavy year, only two seeds above the six-line have survived to the second weekend (#9 Iowa, #11 Texas).

I have input all eight games into our A.I. prediction model to get the top computer picks for each game, plus the best-available odds. The table below lists the A.I.’s ATS and O/U pick for each game. Under the table, I have set out the computer’s rationale for each pick.

Sweet 16 Predictions & A.I. Picks

The computer is taking all four underdogs who are catching seven or more points. It also likes the under in five of eight games.

Best odds as of March 23rd.

Texas vs Purdue Picks

• TEX +7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
• Over 148.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

A.I. rationale: “Purdue enters this matchup with a sparkling 29-8 record. However, Texas is a dangerous Cinderella squad with momentum. Longhorns starter Cam Heide, a former Purdue transfer, is shooting a blistering 50% from the field. Grab Texas +7.5. Their perimeter defense will challenge Braden Smith, forcing the Boilermakers to execute flawlessly in the half-court.

For the total, Over 149 is my play. Both teams feature capable scoring units that generate high-percentage looks. Expect Texas to aggressively push the pace to cover the number, creating plenty of transition points and dragging the score over the threshold.”

Iowa vs Nebraska Picks

• Nebraska -1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Under 134 (-110 at Fanatics)

A.I. rationale: “The No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers face the No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes for the third time this season. They split the regular season matchups, including a grinding 57-52 Iowa win. Back Nebraska -1.5 here. The Cornhuskers’ disciplined rotational defense will limit Iowa’s points in the paint and force contested jumpers late in the shot clock.

I am confidently taking the Under 133.5. Given their deep familiarity with each other’s offensive sets, defensive intensity will dictate this game. Eliminating fast-break opportunities will force long possessions, ensuring this matchup stays beneath the total.”

Arkansas vs Arizona Picks

• Arkansas +8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
• Under 168 (-110 at Fanatics)

A.I. rationale: “Arizona holds a massive 34-2 record, but they looked uneven offensively against Utah State. Arkansas brings immense momentum and the dynamic backcourt presence of Darius Acuff Jr. Take Arkansas +8.5. The 8.5-point spread feels too generous for a high-stakes environment where physical SEC defense can disrupt rhythm.

When it comes to the 166.5-point total, pivot to the Under. Setting a line this high requires elite 3P% all night from both sides. Expect a physical battle that features contested drives to the rim, keeping the final score short of this inflated total.”

Illinois vs Houston Picks

• Houston -3 (-110 at Fanatics)
• Over 139.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

A.I. rationale: “The No. 2 Houston Cougars essentially play a home game at the Toyota Center against the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini. Houston relies on methodical efficiency and suffocating rebounding. Take Houston -2.5. Their ability to limit second-chance points provides a clear structural advantage against Illinois’ frontcourt.

For the total, Over 140 is the play. Illinois has the perimeter shooting to stretch the floor and force Houston out of their preferred defensive shell. The Illini’s ability to catch fire offensively should provide just enough firepower to clear the 140-point benchmark late in the game.”

St John’s vs Duke Picks

• St John’s +7 (-110 at Caesars)
• Over 142 (-110 at Caesars)

A.I. rationale: “Duke boasts a 13-game win streak but is navigating significant injuries. Junior guard Caleb Foster remains out, leaving them with a shorter rotation. St. John’s enters on an eight-game streak and plays relentless basketball. Back St. John’s +7. Without optimal depth, Duke will struggle to maintain defensive pressure for 40 minutes.

Over 142 is my total pick. Expect St. John’s to deploy high-pressure defensive traps, forcing turnovers that lead to easy fast-break points. Duke will counter with efficient interior scoring, naturally accelerating the pace and driving this game over the total.”

Alabama vs Michigan Picks

• Alabama +10.5 (-110 at Caesars)
• Undr 175.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

A.I. rationale: “Michigan is a heavy favorite, but losing guard L.J. Cason to an ACL tear weakens their bench depth. Alabama is also short-handed without junior guard Aden Holloway.Take Alabama +10.5. Michigan’s lack of recent double-digit victories reveals vulnerability against athletic rosters that can attack off the dribble.

Taking the Under 175 is the sensible play. A 175-point line requires a blistering, transition-heavy pace with near-perfect shooting efficiency. Michigan’s disciplined half-court defense will grind down Alabama’s transition game, safely keeping this total under the massive ceiling.”

Michigan State vs UConn Picks

• UConn -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
• Under 136.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

A.I. rationale: “The UConn Huskies present a formidable challenge with their elite spacing and motion offense. The Michigan State Spartans must rely on physical perimeter defense to disrupt passing lanes. Lay the points with UConn -6.5. Their ability to generate high-percentage looks and secure offensive rebounds provides a clear situational edge.

I am also taking the Under 136. Expect a methodical pace that limits transition opportunities for both sides. Michigan State will prioritize ball security and long offensive sets to keep UConn’s potent offense off the floor, grinding the final score below the total.”

Tennessee vs Iowa State Picks

• Iowa State -4 (-110 at Fanatics)
• Under 138.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

A.I. rationale: “Iowa State is navigating the devastating loss of All-American Joshua Jefferson. Tennessee brings elite physicality to this Sweet 16 clash. Despite the injury, Iowa State -4 is the play. Their suffocating perimeter defense remains structurally intact, and their guards excel at fighting through screens to challenge shooters.

Also take the Under 138.5. Both squads base their identity on limiting three-point attempts and aggressively challenging shots at the rim. With both offenses forced to operate in cramped half-court settings, this promises to be a grueling, low-scoring battle that stays under the number.”

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