Tennessee vs Alabama Picks & Best Bets (Jan 24)

• Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite over Tennessee in SEC hoops action on Saturday
• Charles Bediako will play his first game since re-enrolling at Alabama after a two-year G-League stint
• See my Tennessee vs Alabama picks and best bets for the Jan. 24 matchup, below

A loaded Saturday college hoops slate continues tonight with Tennessee (12-6, 2-3 SEC) travelling to Alabama to face the #17-ranked Crimson Tide (13-5, 3-2 SEC).

Both teams are failing to live up to lofty expectations set by last year’s Elite 8 runs, but online sportsbooks believe Alabama is still the superior program. They’ve pegged the Crimson Tide as 6.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds, which seems a little rich for my blood.

The action gets underway at 8:30 pm ET from Coleman Coliseum, in Tuscaloosa, AL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Tennessee vs Alabama picks and best bets.

Tennessee vs Alabama Picks and Best Bets

ATS Pick: Tennessee +6.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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I’m taking the Volunteers +6.5 as my favorite Tennessee vs Alabama pick. The Vols boast the far superior defense, and while the Crimson Tide are an absolute unit at the offensive end, they’re likely going to be down multiple key pieces.

Alabama’s second and third leading scorers Aden Holloway and Amari Allen have both been downgraded to questionable. There’s a real chance neither one of them plays, and that’s bad news versus Tennessee’s top-15 ranked defense. Of course the Vols will still have to deal with sophomore standout Labaron Philon Jr., who’s averaging 25 points over his last three outings.

Then there’s the curious case of Charles Bediako. The 7-footer left Alabama after the 2022-23 season to pursue a professional career. He spent multiple years in the G-League before being allowed to re-enroll with the Crimson Tide earlier this month. He’ll make his heavily criticized return in this matchup, and should have a serious physical advantage over the Volunteers front court.

Despite having a grown man on their roster, I question how efficient Alabama will be on offense. It will take a while for Bediako to acclimate to the system and his teammates, while the likely absence of Holloway and Allen will allow Tennessee to devote more attention to Philon Jr.

At the other end of the floor, the Crimson Tide defense is a mess, and the main reason why they can’t be taken seriously in the NCAA Tournament champion odds. Alabama enters play ranked 329th in scoring defense and 302nd in defensive rebounding. The Vols are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and should be able to crash the offensive glass effectively leading to plenty of second chance points.

Key Statistical Metrics: Tennessee vs Alabama

Tennessee is led offensively by former Maryland guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie and freshman Nate Ament, as the duo combines for 34 points per night. Neither is particularly efficient from the floor, but second chance opportunities and the breakneck pace which Alabama runs its offense at (7th in adjusted tempo) should lead to additional volume and scoring for both.

Ultimately, the Crimson Tide’s injury woes and poor defensive metrics make grabbing the Vols plus the points an easy decision. Most advanced projection models have this game pegged closer to Alabama -5, which still feels high given the quality of the Volunteers.

As for the trends, they support a Tennessee wager against the spread as well. The Crimson Tide are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games versus top-100 opponents.

Game-Total Pick: Under 167.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Sticking with trends, how about this one. Despite Alabama owning a top-five offense for the last three seasons, the under has hit in 10 of their last 12 matchups versus the Volunteers.

Tonight’s total has ticked up a point since opening lines were released, and I think 167.5 points is simply too much. Not only do I expect the Crimson Tide’s efficiency to drop, but I don’t expect Tennessee to get dragged into a track meet. Rick Barnes has faced this Alabama team too many times to try and beat them at their own game, and if anything we should expect the Vols already slow tempo (231st in adjusted tempo) to be slowed down even further.

17 of the Volunteers 18 games so far have fallen below 167.5 points, and despite their favorable matchup against the Crimson Tide’s porous defense, this game will come in under that number as well.